A Rethought Big Board
Lots of changes
Straight to business.
I wanted to break this down into understandable sub-tiers and not rank each player numerically. There are too many players with a wide draft range that overlap.
The top prospects:
Ron Holland - I think he’s the best player in the draft. Wing size, strong, defensive motor, rim threat ability, with a layup package. He’s listed at 6’6.5” w/o shoes, 6’10.75” wingspan, 8’8” standing reach at 196.8lbs. He was placed as an initiator for the G-League team, where some decision-making does get questioned, but proved himself as a downhill player and a transition threat. He showed some perimeter shooting ability as well, but the worst case scenario would be Jaden McDaniels’s archetype. Not bad.
Alex Sarr - Rare talent, tremendous lateral agility and moves like a high end wing. I still have concerns with physicality on offense and rebounding, but still has to grow into his body at age 18 and has a tremendous motor. Every team in the league would love a 6’11.75” center (w/o shoes) as a lob threat, but can cover multiple positions defensively.
The high end starters with optimism:
Isaiah Collier - I’m likely the most optimistic of this pick, but he’s in line with a lot of very good point guard athletes that can make the reads, have touch around the rim, and has a .497FTr. His ability to attack the rim always draws defensive attention.
Devin Carter - I know Laker fans miss Alex Caruso. In this particular draft, he’s the closest to resembling that style of play. He’s a point of attack defender that creates havoc, is capable of chasing shooting guards, and rebounds like a bigman. He’s not the type where I’d want him to run an offense, but he is capable of hitting an open 3-point shot and being a positive on the court.
Donovan Clingan - A defenive oriented center that made good reads within an NBA level type of offense at the University of Connecticut. While some of those reads are preplanned, there’s something to be said for a bigman that makes accurate passes, finishes with aggression at the rim, but has the motor defensively.
Reed Sheppard - I don’t have the strongest feel for his game. Is he just a shooter that can closeout defensively? Can he expand on that? How good of a playmaker is he? He shot over 52% behind the arc with NBA level volume, but he also has an underrated mid-range game. I’ve read comparisons of Reaves, Jeff Hornacek, and even I think of Mike Bibby (Sacramento years). That’s a decade-long NBA player that has a good role on playoff teams.
The one-man offense:
Rob Dillingham - Like Lou Williams, he can be the entire offense of a team for a shift or two a game. When the game is slowed, teams will want to attack him on offense, but he does what he can trying to poke at ball-handlers and trying to get deflections. It really helps that he’s comfortable in shooting guard actions, running off of screens, and able to pull up on the fly, or continue to create off the dribble.
But wings matter:
Zaccharie Risacher - I watch him and think of a fluid moving Kevin Martin. Unlike Martin, Risacher has a good defensive motor and is a more explosive athlete in transition. Martin was an underrated movement shooter, capable of drawing fouls, and that allowed him to level up as a top three offensive option for teams. Risacher has flashed some of that with his athletic ability in transition, but for now, is a spacing shooter.
Dalton Knecht - His role is simple; spot up behind the arc, attack closeouts, pull up from midrange when the lanes are cut off. This is the $20 million wing. If he’s the taller Grayson Allen or if I really want to date myself, Dan Majerle, then he’s got a decade-long career in the league that can be a positive player for all NBA teams.
The enigmatic big wing:
Matas Buzelis - What do you call a projected power forward that’s a face up player and creates his own shots? He’s not a definitive three-point shooter yet, but is far more comfortable creating shots in the mid-range and attacking the basket. Defensively, he’s more of a rim protector than a wing-defender. The lack of clarity here had me drop his draft position. But, #3 through #20 in this draft is almost entirely interchangable.
The Lakers group:
Jaylon Tyson - I did mention that I'm not a big fan of his defense at this point. I don’t think he’s as physical as he could be, and he gets caught watching the ball when defending the weakside. However, he is ball-handling, three-level wing scorer with underrated footwork. Where I usually look for players that can change directions twice within the same drive, he compensates with footwork after the initial change of direction and has a powerful last step to extend to the rim.
DaRon Holmes III - He’s the Myles Turner type. He’s a capable three-point shooter, makes good reads on short roll, extends to the rim with good explosiveness, rebounds solidly, and has shown effectiveness as a rim protector and when being switched on defense to the perimeter. I’d be very comfortable with him leveling off defensively in pick-and-roll situations. He’s not purely a drop defender, and that’s a big advantage.
Tristan Da Silva - Here’s a couple of comparisons to help fans get a mental image of who he is. He’s Kuzma-like on offense, and Cameron Johnson-like on defense. Kuzma isn’t a rim pressure threat. Da Silva isn’t a strong rim pressure threat. Both guys help extend defenses with their shooting. Da Silva is an underrated 2-point shooter (50% all other 2-point shots outside of the rim) and has a 20’ layup with back-to-back years knocking on 40% arc shooting. Defensively, he wasn’t hidden. He was switched from point of attack, to chaser, to post defender. He understands team defensive concepts and this is where I’m confident in his plug-and-play ability and immediate impact for his rookie season.
Stephon Castle - He wants to play point guard, but there are point guards that ended up playing different positions at the NBA level. Cam Reddish rings a bell here. Kyle Anderson played point guard for UCLA. Troy Brown played point guard for Oregon. I think Castle is a high end defensive wing that understands when to cut to the basket. He’s really a high level 3-position defender from point of attack to the wing position. It’s as if he’s the same archetype of Ron Holland, except Holland has the slashing ability and athleticism to apply rim pressure, in the way that Castle wasn’t able to show for UConn. When the shot comes around, then it changes the projected outcome for each player tremendously.
Kevin McCullar - Injuries may have affected his draft stock, but he’s the most Josh Hart-type of the entire draft. He’s a connective passer, solid spot up 3-point shooter, rebounds like a big man, and is capable of defending wings and occasionally level up to post players. It would be nice if the shot release was quicker, but he will always be able to defend and rebound from the wing position, and that helps all NBA teams.
Isaiah Crawford - Like McCullar, injuries (and maybe age) have affected his draft stock, but he’s a defensive wing with a high deflection rate, seeks to protect the rim from the weakside, solid rebounder, and a good 3-point shooter. The free throw rate may be a bit misleading at .432 since he likes to operate from the mid-post as a wing, but he also has long strides, steep shin angles, and a strong upper body to withstand contact at the rim. He was the #1 option for his team and tried to create advantages, but he’ll likely scale down to a simpler role next level.
Zach Edey - He’s a giant player, that is underrated in terms of his athletic ability and conditioning. He has tremendous shooting touch, and I think this shows with his free throw shooting. It isn’t based solely on the percentage, but how the shot release lofts into the hoop without a lot of speed. He’s ambidextrous around the hoop, especially with his jump hook. I wish he was more capable of being an aggressive defender, but his presence does alter shots. He’s an underrated screener, one that flips his hips quickly enough, but once he screens a player, they are really sealed off.
Yves Missi - He’s late to playing basketball, but he has a relentless motor in terms of rebounding and defense. He’s overaggressive defensively, reaching a bit too much, and this leads to foul trouble. He’s also arguably the best combination of size and athleticism in the draft, and early a lob threat with lob passes to the top of the backboard square. He’s often compared to Clint Capela in terms of ability and career projection, but I think of a younger Andre Drummond with that kind of motor and athletic ability.
The next tier lower:
Nikola Djurisic - He’s an athletic European wing that is more comfortable with mid-range shooting and like Tyson, can be more explosive with his last step attacking the basket. He’s an underrated playmaker, and I wish he was more attentive defensively, but he has a certain timing to his passing that really opens up shooters, where he understands how to draw defensive gravity as a rim pressure threat, especially operating out of pick-and-roll.
Pacome Dadiet - Underrated, 18-year old French wing player with a pull up jumper that is comfortable shooting at all angles within the 3-point line and above average by age as a 3-point shooter. He motors on defense and appears more advanced by age on both ends than expected.
Bub Carrington - A combo guard that is comfortable shooting from all two-point ranges unassisted. His game extends out to being an isolation shot creator while being solid behind the arc. Like Dadiet, he has advanced shooting skill by age and turns 19 in late July.
Ryan Dunn - He’s the Vanderbilt-type, but more comfortable protecting the rim than defending the perimeter. Very impactful defender, with incredible motor and switchable from 1-4. Offensively, he’s likely best seen as a cutter and a lob threat, but early in the season, showed some confidence in a 3-point shot and a mid-range turnaround jumper. A lot of work needs to be done for him to be a credible shot threat, but he’s willing to take open shots despite the percentages, and I can appreciate that.
Cody Williams - His advanced numbers are tremendous, but I think he’s often linked to his brother’s projection as a shot creator. Cody is an off-ball wing, that handled some tough defensive assigments from point of attack to wing, but his lack of post-base and strength made him a less effective defender in isolation situations.
Kyle Filipowski - As mentioned before, he’s a player that I don’t have a strong feel for. He operates in the post where he’s most effective, but is noticeably less effective when starting from midrange to the 3-point line. I think he has a strong motor and competes for rebounds, but it’s tough to picture him as a rim threat when a team would likely want him to be more of a complementary spacing threat.
Kel’el Ware - The NBA game has become more of a mental one. The floor level of athleticism has raised so much, that the margins are won on skill, the athletic ability to stay healthy over a series of games, and having great mental engagement and intensity. Ware over the past year, expanded on his skill and added a lot of strength, but after his second year at the NCAA level, I question his defensive timing. Sometimes, he looks rushed on offense. So much so, that he doesn’t always have his feet under him on his mid-range shots and he still makes some of them. I think he’s so focused on being quicker than his defender, that when he’s matched by that quickness or size, he doesn’t have a great counter. If he gets it all figured out, he could exceed lottery level expectations, but I’d rather stick to players that have that awareness, engagement, and motor.
Nikola Topic - Simply put, I’ve been lower on him since I felt his ability to attack the basket was predictable, predicated on switches, and appears to have limited improvisation going into his pull-up shot. I think he rushed his recovery from injuries this season and that affected his play this year as well. I had #1 pick optimism to start the season, but just didn’t really see much change from the beginning of the season to his last game.
Jared McCain - Maybe I should have him ranked higher, but I have mentioned the high threshhold for guards. He’s a SG in a PG body, that isn’t known for being a high end defender at the point of attack. There’s a role for shooters that make good decisions for every team, and this is where I think he’ll stick in the league.
Tyler Smith - He’s the unicorn archetype of this class. I do wish he was a more physical player on both ends of the floor. He has great shooting touch for a 6’9” player (w/o shoes), but has solid agility to closeout to shooters and become a better rim pressure threat from the high post.
Jonathan Mogbo - He’s a power wing with center skills. Isaiah Jackson comes to mind. Jackson is a more explosive athlete, but Mogbo is more comfortable attacking the basket from the high post, surveying the floor from the elbows, and making good passes. The outlier projection is that he develops perimeter shooting and becomes a wing that cannot be dislodged. While he shot well during the pre-draft workouts, even as a projected power forward or center, his combination of reading the floor, athletic ability, motor, and strength may be too good to pass up this late in the draft.
Adem Bona - I think he’s an underrated player. While Missi stands out with his combination of size and athletic ability, Bona compensates some lack of height out arguably the best motor of the entire draft. He does what you expect good centers to do; run the floor, protect the rim, and attack with authority. He’s underrated in terms of defending the perimeter. I’d go as far as saying I’d be comfortable with him trapping, hard-hedging, meeting the level of the basketball, or drop coverage out of pick-and-roll. Is it always perfect defense and positioning? No, but is solid, and that’ll give a team options defensively that they wouldn’t have with other centers.
Remember Usman Garuba and his defensive ability along the perimeter? It’s that kind of ability, except Bona is far more aggressive attacking the basket.
Unfortunately, Hunter Sallis and Nique Clifford opted to return to school. That’s a shame, really, because I felt both guys were actually first round prospects that would slip into the second round.
Jonathan Mogbo and Adem Bona are now in their place. I think both players are late-1st round to early 2nd round picks worth taking the chance on. Mogbo is just a unique player, but has the athletic ability and physical tools to play up defensively and compete well. Adem Bona is listed at 6’8.25” w/o shoes with a 7’3.75” wingspan, 9’ standing reach, at 243.2lbs. Meanwhile, Mogbo is listed at 6’6.25” w/o shoes, 7’2” wingspan, 9’0.5” standing reach at 217.2lbs. There’s a clear 26lb. difference between them, yet Mogbo has a slightly higher standing reach. His lower height may also lead to a lower center of gravity, where he’s able to more easily leverage strength against bigger players. It’s also why I think he’s a power forward with versatile center skills.
Some players to look at for #55:
Ajay Mitchell
Jaylen Wells
Jamal Shead
Oso Ighodaro
Jalen Bridges
Tristen Newton
Dillon Jones
Bronny James
KJ Simpson
I expect some of these players to get picked in the first round like KJ Simpson or Jamal Shead. Others may slip into the early 2nd round like Ajay Mitchell, Dillon Jones, and Jaylen Wells. But, this draft has had the most overlap in terms of draft range for so many players, that I would expect guys I like in the mid-late 1st, slip into the mid 2nd round.
Unfortunately, I don’t see much player depth for the undrafted free agent class.
If you’re looking for more detail on each player, I provided a link on each player name outside of Mogbo and Bona. Those links should direct you to previous articles where I went a little more in depth into each player.
The Lakers do have two shots at improving the roster. I purposely left a tier of a players that I’d like the Lakers to look at for the #17 pick. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Edey was drafted before the Lakers pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers drafted him. But, I also think that the players I listed for that Lakers tier are BPAs that would also help fulfill a particular roster need.
Fun read. I love your articles around this time of year.
I’d love Edey on the Lakers. At worst, he’s Zubac or Brook Lopez. I know he’ll be limited to playing drop but he’d be useful against the likes of Embiid.
Collier reminds me of Tyreke Evans. Gets to the rim but not much else. I have doubts about the long term viability of guards who can’t shoot threes.
I’m not high on Rissacher at all. The measurables are horrifying. He’s a Cameron Johnson with a slight chance of becoming Middleton.