Continuing #5-#10
Are these player rankings spicy?
This is the part of the draft where I can justify projected early 2nd rounders into #5-#10. Bub Carrington? Zach Edey? Jaylon Tyson? On other mock boards like Tankathon, these players are currently ranked in the late 1st to early 2nd. Yet, I can justify them to this part of the draft.
Before I continue, I just also want to add, I have no affiliation with Cashiggy. I just think the YouTube account is incredibly resourceful and definitely deserves more subscribers and donations.
Back to the post. It’s why this is generally considered a weak draft. There is no obvious Luka Doncic or Victor Wembanyama. Guys ranked in the late lottery to the early 2nd round almost feel like the same tier of talent player, depending on the eye of the beholder of course.
Stephon Castle - Official player measurements finally came out and he’s listed at 6’5.5” w/o shoes, 6’9” wingspan, 8’6” standing reach, at 210lbs. That’s basically exactly the NBA size average for a modern shooting guard.
He’s typically a player I would lean to, with prior experience as a point guard in high school. He played wing at UConn and excelled well as a linking passer and decision-maker out of a 3-and-D archetype. While the 3-point percentages weren’t outstanding, it was enough to punish defenses in the tournament when he was left open. Fortunately, he showed much more skill with NBA caliber perimeter defense between SF through PG, off-ball movement, and situational playmaking, that he’s proven to be an easy lottery pick. Some may question his athletic ability or his shooting, but in the end, it’s about drafting good basketball players, and there’s no clear stat that shows his level of awareness, intensity, and court vision on both ends of the floor.
Rob Dillingham - While Stephon Castle is the kind of player that leans to my draft philosophy, Dillingham doesn’t. He’s currently listed at 6’1” w/o shoes, a 6’3” wingspan, with a 7’11” standing reach at around 164lbs. Admittedly, my gut says to rank him in the late 1st round. If we stepped outside of the idea of, “who is the best player available” and just focused on “who would be the best playoff players,” small point guards don’t make the cut. I have a loose idea of an 8’3” standing reach being a minimal requirement. It doesn’t just account for height and wingspan, but oddly enough, it can account for stride length when attacking the hoop. Ever notice how Giannis gets to the rim in 2-3 steps from the 3pt line? Or how elite wings have 3 steps in a straight line from the same distance? Take 4-6 steps in a straight line, and the defense is waiting to swat the shot out of the building.
Don’t get me wrong, Dillingham is incredibly talented. It’s just so obvious that he’ll be hunted on defense. Will the offense make up for it?
He’s an incredible prolific pull up and spot up shooter. It looks easy and effortless to him. The last time I came across this, I ranked Malik Monk #5 on my board because I thought the shooting would overcome it. While his defense has improved, it didn’t. Why? He’s not a natural point guard that distributes the ball well. Average guards and average point guards can find the open man within a specific playtype and explore the first three options. High end creators can see the full width of the court. The best can see the full width of the court within a playtype and in a chaotic situation. Dillingham isn’t that kind of point guard. I’d even argue that the best point guards in this draft aren’t that kind of point guard. As I’ve mentioned earlier, it’s that kind of draft.
However, if you’re able to find a microwave scorer that can get you a quick 4-7 points within a few possessions in this draft, it could be considered a steal. That’s Dillingham, and he can absolutely cause those problems.
Reed Sheppard - In the mold of, “just draft good players,” Shepperd fits. He’s currently listed at 6’1.75” w/o shoes, 6’3.25” wingspan, 7’9.5” standing reach, at just over 181lbs. Good thing, because Dillingham was making me feel heavy.
Like Dillingham, I do expect Sheppard to get hunted down on defense. However, Sheppard is able to make some defensive reads with an incredible max vertical of 42”. That vertical does show when he’s at the rim, but especially in terms of contesting, or even blocking shots behind the arc. He has incredible recovery ability, and this, tied to his ability to make some defensive reads (along with quick hands!) to keep him on the floor.
Dillingham is known to be a killer shot-creator, while Shepperd is the killer spot-up shooter. He’s not totally deficient off the dribble as a shooter at all, but it’s just easier to slot him in that role since that’s what he does best.
I try not to look too hard at statistics and be a guy that looks at numbers without context, but this is good to ignore and the game tape is legitimate proof.
66.7% FG at the rim, just 7.9% of that assisted(!)
45.2% FG all other 2-point shots, just 10.7% of that assisted (!)
52.1% FG behind the arc (!), 76% of that assisted.
I prefer him as a prospect over Dillingham. There’s a slim shot he further develops ball-handling and gets an offense geared to his abilities. At least he has a shot. But for now, it’s like watching a guard-version of MPJ; all arc shots look easy as spot ups, easy creation abilities with 1-2 dribble work combined with footwork to get an open look. He will absolutely demand defensive gravity. When he figures out his shooting gravity on-ball creates even easier shots for his teammates, it’ll unlock him to higher tier of offensive threat.
Dalton Knecht - Speaking of just, “drafting good players,” Knecht always felt like “tall Grayson Allen” to me, without the tripping.
I purposely used the same game of Knecht and Sheppard. It was high intensity, great talent, good execution, and a much clearer example of what to expect next level.
You’ll see in the game how he’s involved in all sorts of shot types, but he’s most comfortable with spot ups, limited dribble pull ups dead ahead, and that he’s able to attack closeouts. His usage was over 32.7% according to Sports Reference, but the game tape shows a lot of that similarity to what Grayson Allen does at the NBA level. I don’t expect him to be a lead playmaker or shot creator, but at 6’5.25”, 6’9” wingspan, 8’7.5” standing reach at 212lbs., it’ll be easy to see him in that 3rd or 4th option Grayson Allen (or I’ll date myself here) Dan Majerle offensive role. Assuming he stays healthy and the skill set sticks, this is what a $20 million/year wing looks like, and hopefully he expands on his passing ability.
DaRon Holmes - Currently listed at 6’8.75” w/o shoes, 7’1” wingspan, 9’ standing reach, at 236lbs., we’re finally at a player that I have ranked much higher than consensus that could fall to #17.
I think initially, NBA teams will be turned off by the high center of gravity, smaller torso, lack of athletic fluidity, and size linked more to a power forward than a center.
With that, I’ll share a link with one of my favorite scenes from the movie, “Moneyball.”
It starts at 0:42.
“…If someone bunts on us, just pick it up and throw it to first. Don’t try and be a hero and go to second.”
“Let them make the mistakes, and when your enemy is making mistakes, don’t interrupt them.”
“They’re giving you an out, man. They’re just giving it to ya. Take it, say, thank you.”
- Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in the movie, Moneyball
It’s one of my favorite scenes, because if a team has a draft philosophy and does their homework, inevitably, another team “makes a mistake” and lets a good players slide down to the Lakers pick. There are a lot of fans out there that felt Whitmore slipped. I felt it was Cam Whitmore, Brandin Podziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis, all players I had ranked from mid-lottery to mid-1st round. Any of those guys would have been considered a draft win.
Now, DaRon Holmes is a guy that teams might, “make a mistake” on because of the aesthetics. However, as a player, DaRon Holmes protects the back line, gets involved in DHOs as a scorer and short-roll playmaker, has range to the 3-point line, and is a solid passer. He just so happens to have complementary skills to Anthony Davis and one could see him as a Myles Turner archetype. Turner has the softer touch on his shot. Holmes is more aggressive with the dribble.
A big with that kind of versatile skillset is valuable to all teams. Strength may be an issue as well, but he has enough counters on offense to be effective and a high motor in terms of rebounding and defense. I don’t project him to be a great individual post defender, but I do anticipate him being proactive as a weakside shotblocker.
Admittedly, this is a high ranking, and perhaps my biases are leaning to him being a best player available at the position that the Lakers need, but in a realm where it’s difficult to draft unicorns that can provide 3-point shooting and defensive rim protection, he’s arguably the best available of that archetype this year.
Some stats via Hoop Math and Sports Reference:
49.1% shots at the rim, 74% FG at the rim, 56.6% assisted shots at the rim
.724(!) free throw rate last season, .621(!) free throw rate through 3 years at Dayton
38.6% arc shooting on 2.5 attempts, 93.8% assisted
15.9% total rebound rate, good for 10.5 rebounds per-40
2.8 personal fouls per-40
18.9% assist rate, 12.1% turnover rate, on 31.5 usage
7.2% block rate, good for 2.5 blocks per-40
Simply put, if the shot isn’t there, he’ll be a finisher, capable passer and decision maker, a rebounder, and rim protector.
All of this, including the fact that he’s a solid screener despite his frame and a lot of his shots are assisted, means he has a clear role as an NBA player. He’ll be a finisher, a great supporting player around franchise types, and hopefully gets stronger in the process.
Devin Carter is another player I feel that “Moneyball” vibe for. He’s listed at 6’2.25”, 6’9” wingspan, 8’2” standing reach at 193lbs.
If I was going to nominate one player in this draft to be an All Defensive Team player, it’s Devin Carter.
This game is an ugly one. He doesn’t shoot well. This is playoff level atmosphere. When I talk about players getting “stretched out” by playing incredibly intense defense, and not making shots, this is it.
This is also what elite defense looks like Devin Carter, defending point of attack, fighting over screens, contesting shots on closeouts, recovering from behind, switching onto wings (Baylor Scheiermann) and comtesting 3s, and even blocking the shot of Kalkbrenner.
He’s not a traditional point guard on offense. He’s the recipient of a lot of DHO series plays, and doesn’t get downhill in that halfcourt. It’s just not his game. What he can do is be a capable three-point shooter while not being afraid of contact. In my mind, he’s a 3-and-D wing that’s the size of a point guard.
Some stats:
37.7% 3-point on 6.8 attempts per game, 72.6% assisted
.438FTr through three years, with a drop in the most recent year reflecting the lack of downhill ability on ball. Still, the free throw rate is great for any guard.
14%(!) total rebound rate, or 9.8(!) rebounds per-40 at point guard. He’s able to track shots well and makes the “extra decision” quickly.
2.9% steal rate for 2 steals per-40
2.8% block rate for 1.1 blocks per-40
On just 2.2 fouls per-40 minutes.
That covers a rough ranking of #5 through #10. I tweeted yesterday a list of plaeyrs that I thought were NBA ready. Two of those players are included in this post; DaRon Holmes and Devin Carter. I currently have Kevin McCullar, Ryan Dunn, and Tristan Newton ranked lower, but expect them to be more NBA ready than other players by draft day.
I still anticipate the Lakers trading the pick, or at least trying to. I don’t feel that they can get a trade for a star done with the current assets in place. So, if nothing happens, at least I have a list of players I’d look out for, and I know Laker fans would be excited for the more-ready contributors.
Of the entire list, I’m still biased to the 2020 Lakers’ team, so if Collier doesn’t slip that far, Devin Carter fits the idea of what Alex Caruso provided for that exact team. Even throughout the Denver series, I’ve felt that the Lakers just didn’t match enough possessions to them, and Carter can not only help out with rebounding, but also do a better job competing defensively against other guards and possibly do well switching up defensively. In my mind, if LAL was able to match or get ahead of possessions with Denver, Murray doesn’t hit two game winners.
But that’s just me.
Love it! Even if the Lakers don't end up having a 1st round pick, love seeing your profiles, nonetheless.
I was thinking about the “small guys get picked on” idea you mentioned. It’s true. But I don’t think that’s a reason to not pick little dudes. One of two things have to be true though:
1. They have to be a potential offensive force (like Dame or Trae)
2. They have to be 3 and D and be able to stand up to taller dudes for stretches. (Melton, prime Pat Bev)
Guys like Sheppard and Carter have shown that they might be in one or the other category. They might be small but they use their physical gifts well.