Pick #11 through #20

Now things get confusing.

I’ve been asked more draft questions lately, so I’m going to put my thoughts on a lot of players. I will have players ranked with a number next to their name, but in general, they are late lottery to mid-1st types, or mid-1st to late-1st in terms of my rankings.

Photo by Oleksii S on Unsplash

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#11 - Zaccharie Risacher - Going off of NBADraft.net player measurements: notes: Measured 6’9.5″ 193 lbs 6’10.5″ wingspan, 8’10” standing reach at the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit …

Stefano Makris 4/17/24

Admittedly, I didn’t understand the #1 pick draft hype. I still don’t, as I don’t understand placing non-shot creators or stronger defensive presence below 3-and-D archetypes. I do think late lottery is the right place. He’s a spot up shooter that relocates well, is capable of attacking a closeout, and has a high motor on defense. Playmaking isn’t his primary concern and the frame may be an issue next level, but wing-sized, plug-and-play, 2-way players that can do these things on the floor, get ranked highly in the NBA.

Just to be clear, the players I have ranked #4-#11 all feel like the same tier and are all basically interchangable for me, regardless of team fits by draft position. If you told me, Risacher was #4 and Matas should be #11, I’d agree with you. It really is that interchangable for me.

The only differences here are, Holland getting a lead playmaking role when I don’t think that’ll be his archetype next level, but showing signs of creating plays for others, Sarr being a versatile rim protector and perimeter defender, and Collier being a rim pressure guard with physicality. He’s a shot creator.

#12 - Donovan Clingan - I may have him lower ranked than other more popular mock drafts, but there’s a couple things here. There’s injury history, and the ability to be a scoring threat. I think he’s a Jakob Poeltl-type, one that can operate out of DHOs and make more advanced reads from a standstill at the elbows of the key. He’s a good timing defensive player, reacts properly, with a long wingspan and soft touch to finish well around the rim. He’s not much of an individual shot creator, but his archetype matters in an NBA world where wings and guards have shown to be the more prevalent scorers in the league, and he has the size to compete against the NBA’s elite.

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#13 - Tristan Da Silva - I have Devin Carter and DaRon Holmes ranked higher, and both guys may slip to the Lakers #17 pick. However, there’s also a slim chance Tristan Da Silva falls to #17, and I think that’d be a steal for the Lakers.

He’s currently listed at 6’8.25” w/o shoes, 6’10.25” wingspan, 8’8.5” standing reach, at 217lbs. That is basically ideal wing size, with just enough size to slide into a power forward slot. “In shoes,” he’s basically a 6’10”player with enough standing reach to compete against a bigger front line.

More importantly, over the past two seasons, he has easily surpassed my thresholds of 60%at the rim, 50% all other two-point shots, and knocking on 40% behind the arc. Now, I don’t use Synergy, but he isn’t a typical 3-and-D player with a great floater. He has a strong sample of pull up jumpers, both from midrange and behind the arc.

Rich from @Mavsdraft on twitter tweeted out an excellent shot chart, and although there are some percentage discrepancies (at the rim 55% on the tweet vs. over 60% at hoop math), it doesn’t take away from the high volume of contested shots at the rim, nor should it be seen as a shooting touch issue.

Notice the variety of shots he gets; spot up three in transition, post up vs Tyson, pick-and-roll And-1 vs Tyson, transition shot against contact, the appearance of a DHO keeper for left hand layup, another DHO into a pull up long 2, drive from a 3-point pull up fake, spot up 3, pick-and-roll drive left with a foul drawn, isolation drive left, 3pt fake attack closeout, etc. My point of listing these plays is the variety of shots he takes within them and how he’s able to create something positive from each event. It’s rare that I’ll see him take a bad shot.

He’s not the quickest player, but he takes advantage of the space the defense gives him, and operates in spaces on the court that don’t drastically affect the offensive spacing altogether. He reacts quickly on the catch and doesn’t sit and watch things to settle. He didn’t have a great 3-point shooting night, but his mid-range game looks absolutely effortless.

Defensively, he’s also in a lot of situations and he doesn’t compromise the defense when forcing turnovers. Instead, he’s always in the play, whether he’s defending a pick-and-roll ball handler, chasing a perimeter shooter off of screens, digging on a post player and recovering out to the shooter, or just recovering out to the shooter in general.

The reasons why he’ll slip is the percieved lack of athleticism and age. He’s currently 23 years old. He’s not a player of incredible burst or verticality, and maybe some of the strength has already filled in. However, he has a tremendous center of gravity with excellent decelerative ability, and that allows him to be an effective, versatile perimeter defender. That’s the kind that wins games.

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#14 - Kevin McCullar Jr. - This is my second year covering McCullar, and for me, nothing has changed. He’s still the Josh-Hart archetype. He’s the spot up shooter that can attack closeouts with physicality. He’s the connective passer that can the ball to the open teammate. He’s the rebounder from the guard spot. He’s the defender that can defend up positions. Unfortunately he has a bit of an injury history, and isn’t as plug-and-play as originally perceived. Ideally, you’d like a guard to be a point-of-attack defender or a great chase defender. McCullar excels at the defensive idea at wing, covering shooters, drivers, and defending up. This is how Josh Hart doesn’t get exploited in 3-guard lineups for NYK. It’s still a very important archetype, and basically, he’d be a lottery wing if he was taller. I think that highly of his two-way skill set. We’ve seen the impact Hart provides at the playoff level. I feel like McCullar can easily slot in to that exact role.

#15 - Jaylon Tyson - Here’s a player I don’t have the strongest feel for. Tyson would have been an ideal archetype that I’m usually drawn to with his triple threat skills. He runs the offense for the University of California on high usage, uses ball screens, creates in isolation, and creates plays for others.

Defensively, I’m not the biggest fan of his off-ball awareness. Maybe it’s tied to his physicality, but whether he’s on the strongside or weakside, he can get caught ball watching. I’m also struggling with the idea of what he looks like with less usage. I don’t project him as a tertiary playmaker. I think the floor is so high to do it at the NBA level, that even some prior primary initiators at the NCAA level end up secondary (Austin Reaves). It’s been a struggle for me to project what an optimized version of Jaylon Tyson looks like.

Throughout the video, he finds ways to get his teammtes open shots. He’s comfortable shooting behind the screens when the defenders sag. While I do appreciate the skillset, I’m not clear on how it looks when it scales down. When it does scale down, players have to be able to defend, or at bare minimum, rebound. Tyson can contribute to the rebounding aspect, but I didn’t like what I saw when players tried to take him to the post defensively, nor did I like the several times he got beat off-the-ball defensively.

If I miss here, then I miss, but my optimism definitely lies in his triple threat ability, awareness of the full width of the court on the offensive end, and the ability to rebound. As physical as he plays, he should be drawing more shots to the free throw line, which does make me question some explosiveness in traffic.

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#16 - Nikola Djurisic - I’ve said a lot about Djurisic already. He’s officially listed at 6’7” w/o shoes, 6’8” wingspan, 8’6.5” standing reach, at 209lbs. When I contrast Djurisic to Tyson, aesthetically it’s easier for me to see how Djurisic scales down. He gets considerably more off-ball play and operates coming off of screens more often. He operates in a lot of pick-and-roll usage as well, and I think he’s more explosive in traffic compared to Tyson. Like Tyson, I do think he has off-ball awareness issues defensively, but seems to be more impactful 1v1, where he’ll try to go for steals. He does gamble a lot defensively as well, and more discipline is required.

YouTube Short of NBA Combine play

I think Tyson is the more consistent perimeter shooter, while Djurisic is the better overall athlete. Djurisic is every bit the passer, that Tyson and possibly more effective, because he has that much more size and initial burst to create advantage. Even during the combine, he operated as a movement shooter and looked comfortable in that setting.

Needless to say, he’s been my guy for two years running, and while I’m still more optimistic than other mock drafts I see, he’s finally getting more rankings in the first round.

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#17 - Pacome Dadiet - French wing that is 18 years old, looks like he’s completely playing off of feel and instinct, and finds ways to be productive. Considering his inexperience, he does a solid job with his perimeter defense, pull up jumper, and ability to attack the hoop. It’s just a longer runway, so I doubt LAL looks this way. Defensively, I think he has a good grasp of what he should be doing on the floor which surprises me.

#18 - Tyler Smith - Currently listed at 6’9” w/o shoes, 7’1” wingspan, 8’9” standing reach at 224lbs., he’s the idea of what a unicorn is, but just isn’t a lone rim protector-type just yet. He has the agility to hedge high and switch defensively, but I wouldn’t consider him a stopper, just a capable defensive player. One of the tougher thingsabout G-League evaluation is measuring physicality, and unless the ball-handler is initiating a lot of it, there isn’t much physicality throughout the game at all. He’s comfortable being a pick-and-pop player or being a threat on the corners, but there’s still more to unravel from his skill set. This is far different from me liking Leonard Miller from last year, where the defensive rebounding, motor, ball-handling, finishing, transition-passing, with the developing 3-point shot was more obvious.

#19 - Cody Williams - Initially I was much higher on him because I think he’s been incredibly productive and efficient despite limited usage. He’s listed at 6’6.5” w/o shoes, 7’1” wingspan, 8’7”standing reach at 178lbs. It’s been more of a challenge to project his game because he’s not the on-ball threat that his brother Jalen Williams is. His light frame points immediately to strength issues, and strength is a requirement at the wing position. He did very well in an off-ball setting, especially in terms of spot ups, limited space creation, off-ball cutting, as well as taking on tougher defensive assignments all throughout the season.

Just to show you how efficient he’s been, Hoop Math has him taking over 46% of his total shots at the rim, converting at 73.3%, 38.1% all other 2-point shots with 20.8% of them assisted, and 41.5% behind the arc with a free throw rate of 39.7%.

I’ve learned throughout the years, these are the kind of big numbers that present well of off-ball players, similar to Lonzo, freshman year Haliburton, and a few others. Unlike Lonzo and Haliburton, he’s less of a proactive playmaker, so it’s reasonable to expect his efficiency to drop with higher usage.

Unless the draft combine shows otherwise, I think strength, and in turn balance, will show as NBA issues on both ends of the floor.

#20 - Nikola Topic - Why the drop? One of the things that caught me on Hood-Schifino was how predictable I felt his play was. I get the same vibe from Topic. Almost every drive I watched was from a pick-and-roll forcing a big man switch, and then using a second step burst to get by at the rim. Almost every pull up 3 was a similar rhythm handle and footwork into the shot. There isn’t much mid-range game to speak of. Collier has more creativity here. There isn’t much change of direction mid-drive here. Collier beats him here. He’s every bit the finisher at the rim that Collier is, but with more size. He can see the full width of the court and make the corresponding passes, but a lot of the film felt like “if the conditions are right, he can make the play.” Some playmakers force the issue and dictate what they want. Some playmakers take what the defenses give them. There is a route to expanding on that skill set especially utilizing that size over smaller defenders in the mid-range area. I was just more impressed by the creativity and unpredictability of Djurisic, Collier, Tyson, and Risacher as on and off-ball players.

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I anticipate some of my readers asking where Zach Edey, Kel’el Ware, or Yves Missi are in this draft, but as I’ve mentioned before, I don’t specifically draft by positional need. There are good guards and wings expected at the Lakers #17 pick, and some may be more NBA ready than the centers I’ve just mentioned.

I have tweeted out that the guys I think are more ready are:

Devin Carter

DaRon Holmes

Tristan Da Silva

Kevin McCullar

Ryan Dunn

Hunter Sallis

Tristen Newton

These guys are ranked as high as lottery to the mid-2nd round, and a lot of it is based on teams projecting upsides of players, developing them internally, and realize their outcomes being better than their draft positions.

Some of those players may also include Zach Edey, Kel’el Ware, and Yves Missi, but that’s also why I have them ranked within #21 to #30.

Needless to say, but if LAL had a shot at Devin Carter, DaRon Holmes, or Tristan Da Silva, I’ll think they’ve stolen a rotation player at #17 that can still help out on the floor, even when the shot isn’t going.