Picks #21-#30
Picks #21-#30
Ware, Filipowski, Carrington, Dunn, Missi, Edey, etc.
Continuing from the last post, this one will include Kel’el Ware, Isaiah Crawford, Bub Carrington, Ryan Dunn, Jared McCain, Yves Missi, Kyle Filipowski, Hunter Sallis, Zach Edey, and Dominique Clifford.
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A few of them would still be worth drafting at #17, and I wouldn’t consider it a reach. I would just consider a lot of prospects before that. Players are in the middle of workouts right now and maybe some news means things change.
#21 - Carlton “Bub” Carrington - He’s listed at 6’3.75” w/o shoes, 6’8” wingspan, 8’3” standing reach, at 195lbs. Maybe this will be seen as controversial, but I think he’s the idea of what people think Jalen Hood-Schifino is. Unlike JHS, I don’t get a sense of predictability about his game at all. Both have killer mid-range pull up jumpers, but Carrington comes out of a lot of dynamic scenarios, not just strictly pick-and-roll. It may be easier to see him as a bench scorer because of that. According to Hoop Math, he shoots 50% on all other 2-point shots outside of the rim, and 9.2% of them are assisted. Although he shoots an average 32% behind the arc and takes 14% of his total shots at the rim, his creativity from mid-range gives a sense of improvisation to his game that can expand into both of those areas.
He’s a tough shot maker, and although he’s not the greatest chase defender, he does compete at the point of attack. No, he doesn’t always throw the skip passes out of pick-and-roll. No, he’s not the most efficient at the rim or behind the arc. But, he is a legitimate shot maker at one of the most difficult shots from mid-range, and doesn’t have to be on-balance to make them either.
#22 - Isaiah Crawford - He’s listed at 6’5.25” w/o shoes, 7’0.5” wingspan, 8’9.5” standing reach at 216lbs. according to the 2024 G-League Elite camp.
Every time I watch him, a few things stand out. I think he has great awareness and is proactive in trying to create plays defensively. I think defenses targeted him and were more physical than usual. He has a 3-level game, mostly in mid-range, but a very capable spot-up 3pt. shooting game. More importantly, he’s aggressive attacking the basket and putting his body against the defense, and that shows with the .432 FTr.
If I just looked at his Hoop Math statistical profile, it shows well.
62.2% at the rim, 36% of his FGA are at this range.
40.4% all other 2-point shots, 8.8% of them are assisted.
41.4% 3-point shooting on just over 3 attempts per game.
.432 free throw rate.
Usually this is the kind of profile for lottery to mid-1st round types regardless of age. One of his best traits lowering his center of gravity, getting his shins near parallel to the floor, and using those long strides to initiate contact in the painted area.
Like Carrington, I never really feel like I’m seeing the same shot twice. He has to do a lot of individual creation, and in those scenarios, he still creates to a 16.1% assist rate through five years at Louisiana Tech. Personally, I just think it’ll be easier for him to scale down to becoming a spot-up shooter, attack close outs, and have a few countermoves in the mid-range area.
Defensively, he won’t be considered a specialist, but he has an incredible deflection rate and a very good understanding of where to be defensively when rotations occur. It’s a lot easier to get away with at lower level competition, but it’s rare to find. He won’t get lost here. He’ll just need to adapt to NBA speed. I expect him to make that transition easily.
#23 - Ryan Dunn - If ever there was a player that I wish was 7’, it’s Ryan Dunn. I have tweeted out earlier that I felt he would be one of the more NBA ready players. Unfortunately, I don’t think the offense will be enough for him to be a threat outside of playing center, but he’s arguably the best defender in the entire draft. Some have made comparisons to Thybulle, but Thybulle was perimeter oriented in a zone-based defense. Dunn played as a big at the University of Virginia, and switched, protected the rim, defended bigger players and smaller players alike, hedged even with the screen, and is one of the few players I would trust to press cover on a ball-handler out of pick-and-roll. He’s just a legit NBA defender.
He’s listed at 6’6.25” w/o shoes, 7’1.5” wingspan, 8’7” standing reach at 214lbs. This is great size for a wing, but not a big, or power forward/center. I can’t shake the idea that he plays bigger than his size, to the point of defending NCAA bigs incredibly well despite the size difference.
I wish there was also more to his offensive game. I wouldn’t consider much outside of being a rim threat. In this aspect, he’s a center, the kind that’s so good defensively that he has a high floor through various situations, but can create vertical spacing on the floor, in assumption that his teammates create horizontal spacing. Still, after how well Vanderbilt adapted to the 5-out offense and found ways to score as a cutter and is that high level perimeter defender for the Lakers, Dunn would have be played similarly on offense, but more comfortable against stronger, bigger players.
#24 - Jared McCain - I’ve read multiple scouting reports on McCain and still can’t shake that he has to be a point of attack defender. I like his decision-making, he takes good shots within the offense, but at 6’2” w/o shoes, 6’3.5” wingspan, 8’2” standing reach at 203lbs., NBA shooting guards are just bigger now. Fortunately, McCain compensates with strength and does a better job of ball-tracking and rebounding. In relation to the Lakers, it’s like watching a sharp-shooter version of Gabe Vincent. It’s an excellent outcome. Just, on a team so stacked with guards, all with relatively similar skill sets, it would be wise for LAL to go for more size at guard or downhill ability.
#25 - Yves Missi - Here’s the player where I wish the Lakers were coming off of a championship situation, had a core nine-man playoff rotation, and were willing to take their time with a player that needed more development. Missi is arguably one of the best athletes in the draft. I’m not specifically referring to combine results, but his motor when he runs the floor, attacks the glass, and his verticality around the rim is so obvious. He caught onto basketball halfway through his high school tenure and it times it looks obvious. He does get away with combined size and athletic ability to be productive without really being punished by executing fundamentals.
He’s listed at 6’10.75” w/o shoes, 9’1.5” standing reach, 7’2” wingspan, at 230lbs. That is simply great NBA size at the center spot, and with his athletic abilities, he looks effortless running up and down the floor. The idea is that he’ll turn to a versino of Clint Capela, but even Clint needed a few years to learn the game and incorporate some fundamentals before being a defensive anchor at center. Still, he’s a great lob threat in the mean time.
#26 - Zach Edey - I’m not trying to be hyperbolic in any way. I would totally understand it if a team drafted him #1. If I was more confident a team could protect his health and teach him to be more physical on both ends of the floor, I’d rank him over Holland and Sarr. If I was doing a player evaluation by my gut, I would draft him #1. This is why I’ve said several times on twitter, that I’m unclear about his evaluation.
Edey stands at 7’3.75” w/o shoes, 7’10.75” wingspan, 9’7” standing reach, at 299lbs. You know who else had that size and was seen as a controversial #1 pick? Yao Ming. He doesn’t have Yao Ming’s jumpshot. He does have that kind of shooting touch.
So, why would I draft him #1? Every time he stepped on the floor against his level of competition, he created problems. Did you happen to watch the NCAA Finals? UConn didn’t separate themselves until they through double teams from different directions while projected lottery pick Donovan Clingan was behind him. Basically, he had to be schemed against. Can I really say that of the lottery players in this draft? I wouldn’t say to this extent.
The NCAA stats will speak for themselves; 25ppg, 12rpg, 2bpg. There are two very important stats that I neglected. He averaged 2 fouls per game through 4 years at Purdue. He barely ticked 0.2 steals per game in any year at Purdue.
When I watched his games, my initial impression was that he was “soft.” I’m not referring to soft play in the sense of shying away from a certain amount of contact in the paint. It was solid (but I think he could be even more aggressive) in the painted area. I just felt that he played a specific way to avoid foul trouble, avoid hurting other people, and maybe even protect his health. I mean, do you want your 7’3”+ 300lb. center closing out to shooters? I’d be protecting my feet. Do you want anyone getting hurt? Do you want him to stay on the floor and be productive?
This is the real reason why I don’t have him #1. This is the kind of information that would be released to teams in the interview process, or possibly even shown in 3 vs. 3 or 5 vs. 5 workouts events.
I personally thought his athletic tests in the combine looked great. He’s a giant showing a certain level of agility that I wouldn’t expect of a 300lb. player.
Aside from scoring in the paint, long arms, and soft hands, there are other aspects of his game worth mentioning. He’s a great screener. He can even rescreen just quick enough and guys get sealed off completely.
He doesn’t have great court awareness. He operates within his vision, but at times can get sped up and doesn’t consider open available teammates that are behind him. He sees his 1-2 teammates in front of him along the perimeter, and even out of double teams not from that direction, that’s where he likes to kick out to.
He didn’t always have to continue the fight for post position. He did fight during the game against Wisconsin, but it didn’t matter. At the NCAA level, some defenders just gave up and he just stood on his spot and received the basketball. He can expect more fight next level, where some may be able to leverage his center of gravity against him.
This is a clip of his help defense. He has two lateral strides and he’s late. This happens all throughout the game. His agility test in the combine show that he is a capable, in a predetermined setting. The agility may not show in a game time situation. But, it’s early in the 1st quarter. Do I want him possibly using a foul on that drive? No. Do I want to see a better contest? Yes.
So, what do you do with a center that’s likely a drop coverage big for his career and may not be a primary NBA scorer? This pushes him to be a drop big on defense and a roll-man on offense. Is he a great lob threat? Not necessarily great, but capable. Would I have him switch on defense? No. I wouldn’t have him defend outside of the lines of the key. In that sense, he may be able to get played off the floor. But, if I had modest expectations of an NBA career, ranging from Ivica Zubac to Brook Lopez, both different archetypes of Brook’s career, that’d make Edey an absolute steal in the late 1st.
I can only imagine what he would look like with strengthened legs to handle the weight shifts and change in direction more easily. I can only imagine what he would look like with increased court awareness and operating out of DHO situations. Then he becomes a real problem.
We never really saw a fully aggressive Edey in the way that Ware showed at the rim, Missi does the same, Ryan Dunn defensively, etc., but the reasons why we didn’t are valid as well.
#27 - Kyle Filipowski - Kyle is a player that I would usually be drawn to, but this season, I’m not as sure of. If I say, I like Devin Carter, it’s because I know he can defend and rebound. If I say I like Da Silva, it’s because I know he can make good decisions and defend in a variety of situations. If I say I like Isaiah Crawford, it’s because I know he can be disruptive defensively and slot easier into a 3-and-D role while being physical. When I watch Filipowski, I’m not sure.
I’m not clear what he specializes in. He’s a triple threat big, with range out to the 3-point line, even if he isn’t the most comfortable shooter out there yet. He can create a little, pass a little, shoot a little, defend better than I think, and rim protect a little. Is he a top offensive option? I don’t know what his go-to moves are. Is he a vertical threat? Not really. Is he a horizontal threat on the court? Not really. Is he a playmaking threat? Maybe as a connector. All of this gives me the Moe Wagner vibes that I didn’t like dating back to 2017. It’s not like Mo or Kyle lack physicality or motor. They have both. Personally, I just have higher expectations of bigs on both ends of the floor.
In the end, he’ll probably be a guy that I just didn’t have a strong feel for and looked at other players instead. He’ll likely find ways to succeed. But hey, it happens every draft.
#28 - Kel’el Ware - He’s currently listed at 6’11.75” w/o shoes, 7’4.5” wingspan, 9’4.5” standing reach, at 230lbs. That’s the ideal size at center for both ends of the floor. What kills me a bit is through some of the tape I’ve watched is, he doesn’t always run the floor and gets caught cherry picking. He’s a lottery level talent and yet there are aspects to his game where I feel he could actually be more productive, and it’s not always in terms of getting more touches.
He’s added a lot of weight prior to the season start and is now legitimately NBA size. I just find peculiar things about his game. Why is he taking shots early in the shot clock? Why is he forcing shots without his feet under him? I get the sense that when things look predictable, he looks fine. He’ll block the shot. He’ll get the rebound. Outside of the context, he might look sped up, and it especially shows with shot creation. The level of competition doesn’t matter either. There are just some battles in that video that he should not be losing. His shots should be clean looks. He shouldn’t get boxed out that easily. He shouldn’t be beat to a position. He shouldn’t be late for a contest. This may be perceived as motor issues. I think, this is beyond that. This is a processing issue. All of the physical tools are there, but he doesn’t have the same level of two-way motor as Missi. After a rewatch on a game that late in the season, I reranked him on my board below Yves Missi.
#29 - Hunter Sallis - Here’s a player I’ve felt was underrated all throughout the draft process. If a team is just looking for a guard, one that can spot up, be comfortable shooting from mid-range, and be solid enough as a point-of-attack and chase defender, it’s Hunter Sallis. Hunter is listed at 6’3.5”, 6’9.5” wingspan, 8’4.5” standing reach, at 179lbs.
I specifically chose this game because he’s defending at point-of-attack and as a chase defender. Sallis and McCain are matched up against each other. They get the best of each other a bit. McCain’s strength shows a little, while Sallis compensates with length and energy.
One of the more interesting aspects to Sallis’s game is how low he gets to the floor when he’s attacking the basket. Similar to Isaiah Crawford, his shins are nearly parallel to the floor, his torso is mostly upright, and yet he’s able to attack the basket and pull up in mid-range areas for a comfortable shot.
According to Hoop Math:
63.3% at the rim with 23.7% of his total field goal attempts at the rim.
48.2% all other two-point shots with 7.5% of them assisted.
40.5% arc shooting with over 40% of his total field goal attempts from this range.
Basically, he has a great role-player shot profile. Considering his shot creation to the mid-range area, it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a more projectable pull-up 3-point shot off the dribble as well.
Defensively, I would say he’s solid, only because he does get screened off quite a bit. It takes a certain build and technique (along with defensive communication!) to get around these screens more easily, but as a trail defender, he recovers well and has the wingspan to contest from behind.
Sallis is a player that I can imagine teams could pick as high as the mid-1st to the mid-2nd. I would go more to the former than the latter. It’s so easy to project his future role on both ends of the floor.
#30 - Nique Clifford - Clifford is a player I caught on more late to the draft cycle. Every time I’ve seen him, I caught Max Christie vibes in the best possible ways. He is that kind of spot up shooter, slasher, and rebounder. He’s currently listed at 6’5” w/o shoes, 6’8” wingspan, 8’6” standing reach, at about 200lbs.
He had one of the largest shooting leaps from junior to senior year, so I chose a game against a team that’s usually among the toughest defenses in the NCAA.
From his prior year, Clifford is +15%FG, +18% 2-point, +9% 3-point, +22% free throw.
Now his shooting profile is:
75.4% at the rim on 38.1% of his total field goal attempts being at the rim.
38.2% all other 2-point shots.
37.6% 3-point on 78% assisted.
Maybe it’s his size. Maybe it’s his jersey number. Maybe it’s the shots he takes within the offense. Maybe it’s how he makes a passing decision at the free throw line. Maybe it’s how he defends and recovers when he’s screened off. He looks a lot like Max Christie. Max, I would say is the twitchier athlete, one that gets a ton of under the radar dunks, while Clifford is the more fluid athlete, perhaps with some additional strength.
This is a crazy draft class, and I’ve never felt more uncertain about actually ranking players this season. As I’ve mentioned before, I think certain players can cover an entire draft range and I would find it justifiable. There just isn’t a lot of perceived separation in terms of talent. Teams also have different strengths in terms of player development and training programs, so it is possible that teams with strong programs would take a risk on a younger player.
I have listed Devin Carter, Tristan Da Silva, DaRon Holmes, Kevin McCullar, Ryan Dunn, and Hunter Sallis among the most ready NBA players. I think each of them would be great prospects for LAL. Could the Lakers go in a different direction? Possibly, but if they trade down, which makes sense in my opinion, then it is possible to get up to two of the listed prospects in one draft.
There are players I have listed in the early 2nd round that would be considered in the same tier of talent as this list. That’s what I plan to cover in the next article.