What A Wild Draft Ride
I Could Have Not Predicted This
It was a fun draft season for the Lakers. After doing all the research players that I anticipated to be around pick #55, the Lakers used cash and traded up to #36.
I tend to have a narrow scope when it comes to roster building, so of course, it made sense that I would target Best Player Available Centers. But, after doing an interview with Jovan Buha and emphasizing the talent depth in this draft was at wing and at center, I realized it might just be a small possibility.
A friend and producer of the Laker Film Room podcast, Jeanie, kept track of a BPA list after the first round of the draft was complete.
Now, I didn’t list every single player. I had a hunch Hansen Yang was going to be selected in the 1st round, so I didn’t even list him. What I did think of was, how are the Lakers going to improve athletic ability at their core need positions at center and wing?
This is why I have Adou Theiro ranked so highly. Most other mock drafts had him in the late 1st to early 2nd round, deservedly so depending on draft philosophy. I learned about him late in the draft; his growth spurt, his skills progression, and his defense. All of these traits felt aligned with what I think makes successful NBA prospects down the line.
Theiro goes away from my draft philosophy with a focus on triple threat skills. In high school, he averaged around 40% arc shooting for his first three years, before dropping to 27% for his senior year, and that’s if those stats are accurate. He’s not known as an offensive playmaker or a guy that breaks down defenses with top tier ball-handling ability. He had such a growth spurt that it affected his skill set, and throughout his NCAA career, it became about growing into his body and recaputuring the skill set.
That’s where the 2nd round risk really is. But, if you’re asking me if I think a top tier athlete at wing with defensive ability and defensive motor should slip to the 2nd round, I would just disagree. I mentioned before in an Herb Jones article I wrote previously that there’s always a guy that falls to the 2nd round that I always end up liking a ton. Like Herb Jones, Adou Theiro has a block rate and steal rate that float around 3% from his last season, and 2.7% steal, 3.8% block rate for his NCAA career. That makes him a defensive playmaker to me, but with the athletic tools to keep up with the NBA’s best. This idea of defensive player is different from Herb Jones, who is both a playmaker, but also a shutdown defender at several positions.
Needless to say, Herb Jones plays like a lottery pick in his own draft class.
This is a skill that the Lakers need at all positions, but especially at wing.
I also became more optimistic about his offensive game. People will always look at the 3-point percentage first and say, “the guy can’t shoot.” Meanwhile, I’m looking for indicators that say that he can.
He can finish with either hand at the rim.
He’s comfortable with midrange shots.
He has floater touch in the paint.
According to Barttovik, while he less than 3, long 2-point shots per game, his accuracy for the year is 48.8%.
Even when his scoring more than doubled from his sophomore to junior year, his 2-point field goal percentage went up. Well, dunking is an indicator too, and he had 45 dunks through 27 games. Maybe he’s projected to be a 30% 3-point shooter. Admittedly that’s fine by me, as long as the defense stays intense while keeping the fouls down.
He’s projected to be a top tier athlete wing defender, average shooter, great finisher in the modern NBA. That’s one of the most important archetypes in building a championship team.
This leads me to my other picks, guys that I didn’t think I’d match with the Laker squad, Eric Dixon and Augustus Marciulionis.
Eric Dixon, I also wrote about in a prior post. Feel free to watch him score 38 points against Derik Queen’s Maryland team through that link.
I think he fell in the draft because there are two things that stop teams from seeing him as a higher level bench player early on, his ground coverage defensively and his motor. I can see why people make Julius Randle comprisons because he really is that strong with a soft touch from the perimeter, but I’ve always responded with the comparison to Sasha Vezenkov.
It’s not a sexy comparison, but let’s take a look at what Vezenkov looked like when he slimmed down a bit.
Like Dixon, Vezenkov had similar issues defensively when he played for the Sacramento Kings. He’s clearly slimmer than Eric Dixon at this stage and does a better job relocating, and that’s where he can excel. He wasn’t really big enough to play power forward so he got a bit caught between positions, but in the end, he can shoot.
Dixon, likes to build rhythm through post play if he can’t do it by hitting a couple perimeter shots early on. It is an ask to have him change his archetype, but frankly, I think he’s too strong for the G-League and he’s comfortable with dribble footwork 3-point shots anyway. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s a spacing power forward. It would just really help if he could hold guys defensively in the post and be able to rebound at a higher rate. It would be stellar if he could carve out a Troy Murphy kind of career. I think that’s his NBA career path.
Then finally, there’s Augustus Marciulionis. All I was looking for was a guard with three level scoring. Well, I found one, that happens to mirror how his NBA father attacked the basket. Ever watch a left-handed player shoot right handed? If you already know, that’s LeBron James.
It’s also Augustus Marciulionis.
He gets a ton of shots at the basket too. A magic number for me is 40% of total field goal attempts at the rim. This was a magic number for Jalen Williams in terms of his rim attacking ability. Augustas uses low, change of rhythm crossovers to create some space, but 36.7% of his total 2-point field goal attempts were also at the rim, where he converted at 57% according to Barttorvik. His far 2-point percentage is also at the passable rate at 40.8%, which I think bodes well for increasing his 3-point percentage. I think his compact form with a quick release show his comfort with the shot, and the mechanics of the shot look better than the result at 34.7% on just over 4 attempts per game.
While I had the idea of a Marciulionis pick and roll game with Dixon as a screener and Theiro cutting baseline, unfortunately, but Marciulionis and Theiro will miss Vegas Pro League out with injury. I’m bummed about the situation, but I like that the focus is just getting players healthy for the regular season.
I’m not clear on what Augustus’s contract situation would be for the Lakers going forward, but I like the idea that he’s doing the “try-out” with the Lakers. Maybe he lands in South Bay? Maybe Theiro meets him in South Bay? Maybe they’ll run that pick and roll scenario next season together. I just wish it was in Vegas.
As I mentioned in the title, this Laker draft season was a wild ride. I was fortunate to match 3(!) picks of the team I’ve followed since childhood, and not just because I like the players, but also because I think they’re actually good.
Until next year…