Late To The Party
But Enough Time to List Out Some Prospects
There are many paths to building a championship team, but as you know, I just focus on one aspect of that; the NBA Draft.
The Lakers have a way trading away their best opportunities for short term success, taking the focus from one of the best areas of their business, NBA Draft scouting. They’ve had far more hits than misses, and as it turns out, when their decisions align with my prospect list, things usually turn out well…
…So well, in fact, that Austin Reaves is a potential $30 million dollar player in the league. The Lakers missing on the 2023 draft really hurt their depth and opportunity for a rotation player level with a couple years of NBA development kicked in.
Here’s the bad news.
This isn’t a strong draft class. The focus is on Cooper Flagg, and justifyably so. But when I think of my personal Top 5; Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, Kon Knueppel, Kasparas Jakuciounis, and Derik Queen, it’s like #1, mid lottery, late lottery, late lottery, mid 1st rankings compared to prior (strong) draft classes in that respective order.
As things turned out, the draft classes of the past three years based on their predraft evaluations might look like this:
Wembanyama
#1 Cooper Flagg
Brandon Miller
Scoot Henderson
Amen Thompson
Stephon Castle
Ausar Thompson
#2 Dylan Harper
Ron Holland
Zaccharie Risacher
#3 Kon Knueppel
#4 Kasparas Jakucionis
It’s not only that relatively thin after #1, but the talent level seems 30 players deep of late 1st and early 2nd round prospects. In this draft, that tier of player hypothetically starts around pick 18.
The idea here is to draft for best player available. Two critical things need to happen.
NBA teams let a player I like slide all the way down to #55.
The Lakers need to have their list completely optimized for the players remaining.
What makes it especially tough is, I think there are roughly 35 good NBA candidates, with maybe 10 or 15 guys that make it comfortably to their second contracts. Usually, the number is roughly 45 good NBA candidates and around 20 players that stick.
Could those 35 NBA candidates I like be unavailable at #55? Absolutely. But, the Lakers still need to make the best of every opportunity. They need to be prepared for that situation.
Here are my top candidates of guys that I think might slip. But, don’t be surprised if one or two get drafted as early as the mid 20s. It’s happened before, and it’ll likely happen again.
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Here’s a 6’11.25” center with a 7’3.25” wingspan and more importantly a 9’3” standing reach at 242lbs. What I like about him is, he’s a good lob threat, he has a 10% offensive rebound rate, he has a solidly low foul rate just a 4 fouls per 40 minutes of play. His upside lies in one main idea; he’s an underrated ball handler that attacks closeouts with a dribble move from the NCAA line like a guard. Start at 1:18.
He has an unusually comfortable handle to try and shake a player for a center. That skill opens up the path to short roll decision-making. It’s one thing to get the ball, but it’s another to look like a rim threat with it.
Defensively he’s a solid rim protector. Defensive recognition seems to be a touch late, but he makes up for that with solid rebounding ability. Last year for Penn State, he averaged 10 rebounds per 40 minutes of play. He’s not a classic box-out, find a body type of rebounder. Like most NBA rebounders, he’s a reach rebounder. At the NBA level, there’ll be more guys that can compete against a 9’3” standing reach, but just having a 7’ player at roughly 250lbs underneath the hoop is a giant upgrade for the Lakers. He’s a fair screen setter, but not the clear out type like Trayce Jackson-Davis or Zach Edey.
Another aspect that needs to be worked on is his shooting touch. He has great dexterity trying to dunk the ball, a series of reverse dunks, pivot and extend, and lob threat finishes, but when he’s creating shots in the post, he doesn’t absorb defensive contact well and it leads to poor shot attempts. He’s strictly a solid lob threat offensively.
I think he’s being underrated for several reasons. It’s a deep center class for this draft (though last year’s center class was far more impressive, Edey, Holmes, Ware, Missi), he’s from a small school, and while did very well at the NBA combine, you might wish that he had a motor to sprint every time down the floor and get the extra 1-2 dunks per game that he’s capable of.
Jamir Watkins - The Lakers lack defenders at every position, and I even liked Jamir Watkins as a player last year. He is a point of attack, perimeter iso defender with some ability to chase players defensively. He stands at 6’5” without shoes with a 6’11.25” wingspan and 8’6.5” standing reach at just over 214lbs. These are the most recent measurements, though they have changed from his prior year where he was listed with an 8’8” standing reach but 6’10.75” wingspan. All I can say to that is, you’re tallest when you’re standing before gravity hits you throughout the day.
The case for Watkins lies in several advanced stats that stand out compared to his actual projected role.
Junior year USG 27.6. Senior year USG 31.1.
Junior year FTr .589. Senior year FTr .590.
Junior year StlR 3.8%. Senior year StlR 2.2%
Junior year BlkR 3.2%. Senior year BlkR 2.0%
Junior year TS% .577. Senior year TS% .555.
Junior year Ast% 19.2. Senior year Ast% 16.3
Junior year TO% 15.9. Senior year TO% 13.9
He’s not a pure point guard. He’s not a pure shooting guard. His 3-point percentage of the past two years is .344 and .321 respectively, yet his FT% is .795 and .747.
I’ve listed all of these stats to say, they don’t make sense for a player that’s considered a defender first. This is the kind of psuedo guard/wing archetype that I think the NBA covets. He’s a wing in a shooting guard body. During the NBA combine, he pressed point guards into turnovers, and showed some size to switch defensively in the backcourt. Just watch the first handful of defensive plays to start in this video.
What’s strange to me is, he isn’t ranked higher. The NBA may have bias against draft age, but it’s not like he lacked in skill growth on both ends of the court. He was the engine of his team and the top of the scouting report for the opponent. He’s seen different kinds of defensive pressure. I had him as a 1st round rank last year. I still have him as a hypothetical late 1st / early 2nd rank this year. The only reason for the drop is based on the idea that the skill level of all positions at the NBA level, especially guards, has gone up that much more. I don’t expect the free throw rate to directly translate, but at least it tells me he’s capable of being aggressive and seeking out contact against defenses. In an NBA world where Christian Braun, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Gary Payton II, Bruce Brown, and others get a lot of playing time, there is an NBA role for defensive oriented point-of-attack guards with a level of physicality, passing, and to a lesser extent, shooting ability to play for high end playoff teams.
Imagine the kind of defensive impact he could provide without having to run a team.
Eric Dixon - Why would the Lakers draft a power forward?
Because this one can shoot.
He’s a ground bound player that stands at 6’7.5” without shoes, 6’11.5” wingspan, 8’8” standing reach at 258(!)lbs.
He’s the one player that breaks my idea of left-handed shooters. Based on an overgeneralized hypothesis, left-handed shooters tend to have a lot more shot variety with more lean to their left side, and are more comfortable as pull up shooters off the dribble. They’re more able to get that shot volume up because once they get to a certain ball-handling threshold, they’re able to get any shot they want. Sometimes, due to the shot variation, the accuracy gets hurt. Meanwhile, it seems that right-handed shooters tend to be more comfortable in catch-and-shoot situations and need a higher threshold of deceleration and ball-handling ability to create necessary space.
Well, here’s a 6’8” 258lb dude that shot over 40% behind the arc with all sorts of 3pt. variation.
Face up. Side step. 1 dribble pull up under pressure. Step into. Up fake side step. C+S. These are just the 3pt arc shots. In the 2nd half, it was a series of post ups and isolations going against Derik Queen and taking him to school. Then he closes the game with a hesitation, deceleration, reaccel drive.
Why isn’t he considered higher up on the draft boards? All of his energy was focused on scoring. He’s an average rebounder. His motor doesn’t seem to rev up off-the-ball. You see how he catches the ball and then examines the floor, not examine prior to the catch. You’d like for him to play bigger on the backboard and backline defensively, but he’s not that. He’s a shooter first, a big post player second, and maybe a guy that can just help generate offense when things stall. He’s a fair screener, and should be better considering his size. There’d be a clear path to being a pick-and-pop power forward or a Spain / Stack screener. He has the kind of shot that will draw gravity.
Are there others?
Ben Henshall - It’s like watching the Austrialian version of DiVincenzo. He’s 6’5.5” without shoes, with a 6’6.5” wingspan and 8’3.5” standing reach 193lbs. He has more of a daring shot selection, especially with pull up 3s in transition. He’s a capable straight line driver and solid catch-and-shoot player, but more importably is light on his feet and is capable of staying in front of guards attacking off the dribble. He has a frame that can withstand contact well. He just needs to keep up the level of physicality on perimeter players and not space guards like he was able to at the NBL level.
Javon Small - Super athletic point guard, but in my opinion is more of a combo guard. His free throw percentage of 87% for his four year NCAA career is an indicator of his projectable shooting, but he’s been a mid-30% arc shooter because he’s rarely in a catch and shoot position behind the arc. His perimeter shots are usually self created step backs and pull ups. He’s 6’1” with a 6’4.75” wingspan at 190 lbs. with an 8’ standing reach, but has the verticality of a higher tier athlete. He does seek contact against the defense and had a FTr just above .37 which is good for a smaller guard. Unless he becomes a defensive specialist, develops a more dynamic handle to create more open shots out of PnR for himself midrange, or becomes a deadly arc shooter, it’s very tough for this archetype to make the league. He certainly has the tools to make it.
What happened to the other players on your list?
I think Hansen Yang, Hunter Sallis, and Drake Powell all get drafted late 1st to mid 2nd, before the Lakers pick.
Otega Oweh didn’t stay in the draft, though I like him as a prospect.
Tobi Lawal didn’t stay in the draft, though he’s one of the best general athletes remaining.
Of the list that I tweeted out on April 27, 2025, it just leaves Kobe Johnson and Micah Peavy, both of whom should be given a shot if they’re available as undrafted free agents.
The hope is that one of Yanic or Jamir Watkins drop down to #55, or somehow the Lakers find a way to upgrade their draft position to get one or the other. I think both are eventual rotation players in their upcoming season, and unlike most other teams, the Lakers have clear needs for their specific skill sets. Dixon, Small, Henshall and a few other players listed have a chance as well, it just seems that the road is longer. We know Dixon is a shooter first, post player second, and maybe just has enough size to make a real dent on the defensive boards. If Javon Small turns into a Robert Pack type of point guard, that’d be great, because it’s the rim pressure that’s created out of speed and athletic ability, not just getting defenders off balance along the perimeter. If Henshall becomes a clearer catch and shoot threat and just fights defensively along the perimeter, he has a path too.
Frankly, there are so many variables that can affect this Laker offseason, that an easy choice would be to try and add Jericho Sims or Isaiah Jackson with the TPMLE, and keep the current roster, but just add size and/or motor. That in itself would be a big improvement. That way, depth is added and all trade assets are still available. If Yanic or Watkins further add to bench depth, I personally would have a lot more optimism for this upcoming season.