This is a continuation from the last post. Jalen Slawson, James Nnaji, Julian Strawther, and Ricky Council IV were mentioned, and now let’s do a brief introduction on Trayce Jackson-Davis, Amari Bailey, and one of my favorite players this season, Andre Jackson Jr.
Sometimes players do slip for a variety of reasons. All of these players I have ranked in the 30s or so.
Trayce Jackson-Davis - Trayce is listed at 6’8.25” with a 7’1” wingspan,a standing reach of 8’10", at 240lbs. It seems throughout the entire season, Trayce has been labeled as a sure-fire NBA player. I absolutely agree with that idea. He has a first round rank from my standpoint, and in a typical draft where roughly 20 guys "make it to the league, he has the skills and abilities to make that list and have a long time NBA career.
So why on earth would he slip down to #47? I have noticed that sometimes teams are just willing to search for more tangible abilities. Sometimes teams would rather take the risk on a guy that has a lob radius at the top of the backboard square, or is over 260lbs. and carries athleticism well (see Nnaji here). It’s a perfectly fine rationale, especially when there are NBA caliber rotation players that aren’t rosters. Why use a pick on a potential archetype that’s easily replaceable?
But here’s the thing. Trayce Jackson-Davis does the small things, that some rotation players that aren’t in the league, don’t. No, he doesn’t have definitive 3-point range, or a grossly immense lob vertical height against contact, but he does set screens incredibly effectively, he does execute dribble hand-off situations well, he does box-out consistently, he makes great reads, and he has the post base to compete against size at the NBA level. He makes NBA level reads on both ends of the floor, and these are more subtle details that don’t always show on stat sheets. He’s the kind of player that is scary for a team stacked with shooters like the Golden State Warriors. He slots right in without a problem.
He’s more of a horizontal leaper than a vertical one, and considering the NBA playtypes he already succeeds in, it’s actually a major benefit. I anticipate him working out of the high post, horns situations, or simple screen-roll situations and being a high end decision maker out of those decisions.
I wrote about Jalen Hood-Schifino recently, and part of the reason why I’m not as high on JHS is because he had SUCH clean screens from Jackson-Davis, the kind that turns bigs into playmakers because they give teammates open shots, whether the assisted pass is from them or not.
He’s physical on both ends of the floor and makes reads on both ends of the floor. This lines up with my current theme of this upcoming draft; basketball literacy and physicality.
We like the idea of “fix shooting by getting shooters,” when part of the solution is also, “get shooters more open shots.”
He does that.
While I tend to have some issues identifying big-man skills, I don’t as much when it’s bigmen utilizing guard-level skills. He has that. I can even imagine a team being much higher on him and drafting him in the mid-1st round. It just takes one team to think, “Hey, maybe he’s like Domantas Sabonis for his career,” and that makes him a steal pick outside of the lottery.
Amari Bailey - Bailey is listed at 6’3.25”, 6’7” wingspan, with an 8’7.5” standing reach, at 191lbs after a couple of cookies. I just want to point out, that the 8’7.5” standing reach really stands out to the higher end of average shooting guard standing reach, a big benefit in his favor. After examining pre-draft wingspans and standing reach for years, usually that’s a standing reach tied to a wingspan that is wing level average. It’s fair to make the assumption that he has a long torso and shorter legs, which may actually offer defensive benefits. If he’s a guard with a lower center of gravity and a longer torso, assuming he retains his balance and other athletic traits, it may actually be easier for him to move laterally as well as have a stronger post base than other guards with his frame.
Follow The Box And One. Adam, makes among the most detailed and polished draft videos on YouTube among a few others.
If, you’re optimistic about Jalen Hood-Schifino, you may have the same optimism for Amari Bailey. Generally speaking, they have similar strengths and opportunities. Operating like a shooting guard out of pick-and-roll situations? Check. Good point of attack defense with motor? Check. Ball security issues? Check.
But, there’s a couple of things about Bailey’s game that may give him an advantage over JHS; the taller standing reach, and 43.6% of his total field goal attempts are at the rim. He likes utilizing the dribble out of the pick-and-roll, almost to a fault in terms of probing the defense and attacking. His physique allows him to chop up his steps on the way to the rim, which only makes it easier to maintain or extend advantage on dribble penetration. Players tend to extend to the rim jumping off of one leg on drives, while Bailey jumps off of two, but is still able to extend to the rim well considering his standing reach.
I see a lot of youth in his game, where a player is forced to be a creator or a point guard when he (or she) is more naturally a shooting guard. While he’s capable of making the initial read easily, the second read out of a pick-and-roll isn’t as natural. A lot of time, I think he’s rushing things a bit, which is why his game leaned into the overdribbling, probing the defense too much, trying to split defenses in tight situations. He’s so confident in his handle getting a good look, that he was testing his ability against every defense. This is youth in development.
Personally, I like this. Get me a guard that gets nearly half of his shot attempts at the rim, most of them with on-ball creation, because eventually, that’s the skill that draws in the defense (which is the toughest part) and only gets easier once making the reads becomes more consistent. He already has good pull up jumper from mid-range and 3-point range, especially for his age. He’s 62/39/39/70 in terms of shooting percentages at the rim, all other 2-point shots, 3 point range, and the free throw stripe.
In the end, this makes for a 2-way player; a point of attack defender with the idea of defending up a position, while being a rim threat out of pick-and-roll with a more refined pull-up-jumper by age. Traditionally, this is a 1st round archetype for a guard.
Finally, my favorite player of this draft, Andre Jackson Jr. Andre is listed at 6’5.5” w/o shoes, 6’9.75” wingspan, with a 8’7” standing reach at 198lbs. See what I mean by Bailey having the standing reach of a shooting guard and how that’s typically aligned to players with longer wingspans?
Andre Jackson Jr. to me, is like a reincarnation of Lonzo Ball playing more of a frontcourt position. The shot is funky, but at least Lonzo got results. There isn’t a wealth of isolation shot creation of the dribble for either player. But, both guys play with genius level of reading on both ends of the floor, make the passes, and are playmakers in more non-traditional ways.
Although he isn’t a perimeter shot threat, Jackson Jr. is an incredible ball-linker, and the way he draws gravity on-or-off the ball is with activity. He’s never still. If a defender turns his head, he’s at a different spot of the floor. If he wants to keep your attention, he’ll try to eat up any gap in the defense to draw the attention of his defender and the help defense, and find the shooter.
Defensively, he’s versatile enough to defend guards to bigger wings, much in the way that Vanderbilt does for the Lakers now. Both are unique in how they go about defending, with Jackson being a more physical player while Vanderbilt has defensive craft with screen navigation, motor, and lateral quickness., not that Jackson lacks there either.
If the Lakers were the kind of team that could more readily accommodate to his skill set, he would be a great pick, assuming he even falls to #47 in the first place. Fans wish he could shoot. I wish he was taller, where as a big, you can get away with the lack of shooting and take even more advantage of his abilities on both ends of the floor. The Lakers have Vanderbilt. If Leonard Miller was available #17 and the team wanted to find a similar archetype, the Lakers would likely go that direction because of his shooting touch in the paint out to 15’, and more refined ball-handling ability while retaining similar defensive versatility.
Going through additional research on each player made me more optimistic about each player. I mentioned that Trayce Jackson-Davis was a 1st round rank, with the idea of him being lottery level assuming the Sabonis level of projection. I mentioned how Bailey in prior drafts would be considered a 1st round rank, because young, two-way guards that have a pull up jumper, the possibility of playing up a position, and being a rim threat is rare. Jackson Jr. to me, is a lottery level motor, athlete, and IQ player. I almost want him to get picked by the Pelicans to recraft his shot and give him a long NBA career.
The seven players I’ve covered so far at #47 are a bit more polished than the end of list in Bobi Klintman, Mouhamed Gueye, and to some degree, Ben Sheppard. But, as I’ve mentioned before, there’s a possibility for the Lakers to get away with two, 1st-round ranked type players at each pick.
My current dream scenario would be to package (Beasley + 17) for (Hield + 26 or 29) from Indiana.
With pick 26/29, would then love to draft Andre Jackson. Might be a tad high for him but I just love what he brings to the table.
My question is: is there any reason for hope (given the iffy mechanics; So-so free throw shooting;,Etc) that his outside shooting could improve?
Feels like the last decade is filled with “great wing prospect (if he could shoot)” guys. But, with all the other things he brings to the table, seems like he still can create value on the Lakers with his passing/defensive IQ...
One thing I’ve been wondering as a general draft question:
Do you know how to teams pick who they want to interview at the combine vs workout?
Are combine interviews only considered to be reserved for players a team is highest on going into the draft? And the workouts are players they just need to see more from?
In recent years, the Lakers have signed workout players (Reaves/Swider/Pippen), but they drafted Max who they only interviewed at the combine. With THT, I don’t even know if they interviewed or worked him out at all.
Just always curious if you knew if there is a differentiation between combine interview prospects and workout prospects, esp. for the Lakers.