While the Lakers have the 17th pick and the 47th pick of the NBA draft, I think there’s a slight drop off in talent after roughly 18 players in the 1st round. It’s worth examining players that are projected past the pick and see if they should be that 17th pick.
For me, this starts with Kris Murray and Maxwell Lewis.
Kris Murray is listed at 6’7.75” w/o shoes, 8’10” standing reach, with a 6’11.75” wingspan, at 213lbs. after a cup of coffee. He has general power forward height and reach.
All season long, I’ve gone back and forth about where I think Kris Murray should be in the draft. The pre-draft measurements only added to the lack of certainty. I see him as a tweener between power forward and small forward, but in a good way. The good way means, having wing skills with some power forward length. He’s comfortable as a spot up shooter, has shown glimpses of motion shooting, though I wouldn’t rely on it, and doesn’t shy away from contact in the paint.
So why the uncertainty? I mentioned Kobe Bufkin description that I think he links his movements well, and that he appears to be coordinated both going left and right equally. This is not the case with Kris Murray. It wasn’t even the case with Lamar Odom. It didn’t stop Odom from having a really good career, and I don’t expect it to stop Murray from having a good career as well.
It starts with the first 7 seconds of the video. You’re watching a left-handed player drive right. He makes the layup, so what’s the issue? Notice how close the basketball is to him when he drives right. Notice that, as he dribbles right, he never really appears to accelerate until he extends to the basket with his left hand. Lamar Odom did the same thing.
He does it again, at the 97 second mark at this link. Finally, someone is playing some NBA physical defense against him, even if it’s a smaller player, and he’s not accelerating past him. He defaults into a post position to protect the basketball and match the contact in return.
Now, look at these back-to-back closeouts. On the first closeout, he bit on the fake and just couldn’t stop. On the second closeout, he couldn’t decelerate quickly and got blown by easily. It’s not the deceleration that’s a problem, but if you freeze it at the 2:11 mark, he wasn’t even square defensively and was caught way out of position.
At the 2:41 mark, you see him with the lead dribble right the right hand (yay!), and once again, lack great decelerative traits to gain a half step prior to the crossover into the left hand dribble, where under contact, he was able to accelerate to the hoop just a bit. Did you notice that’s Trayce Jackson-Davis stopping the drive? Not bad for a center going up against a big wing, right?
At the 3:12 mark, look how much cleaner the dribble drive is with the strong hand. He accelerated all the way to the hoop and drew contact at the rim. He even drove by the initial defender and appeared to be quick, when in reality, this is the advantage of a lead dribble combined with long strides.
The rest of the video is him doing positive things; attacking the glass, hitting his share of spot up 3-point shots, and taking smaller defenders straight to the basket to get easier shots. This falls in line with his shooting numbers as well; 42% of total shots at the rim, 66.5% conversion at the rim, 35.3% all other 2-point field goals, 33.5% behind the arc, .259 free throw rate. He draws contact driving left, not as much going right, and just quite isn’t enough of a perimeter gravity threat to attack hard closeouts and create advantages that way. He’s physical against smaller players, not so much against the bigger guys.
Do you see why I’m undecisive?
I definitely think there’s intrigue with him more at power forward than small forward, even if he’s a bit light in the wallet. He looks more comfortable defending the rim, rather than chasing guys off screens or dealing with quicker wings in general. He at least is a face-up kind of power forward; comfortable with 3-point range and attacking off of the drive, but I wish he was more of a natural athlete with decelerative traits and coordination left-and-right. Then again if he was, he’d probably go lottery just like his brother.
Despite all of this, that makes him a solid pick around the mid-1st round of the draft. I just wish there was something more special I could hang onto, like Djurisic running pick-and-roll comfortably, Cissoko’s overphysicality, Bufkin’s synced movements, or Leonard Miller’s unique touch, ball-handling, and coordination at his size. Imagine, Leonard has those advantages at age 19 in comparison to Kris Murray at age 22. Murray at least, has the more polished shot and is just a bit more comfortable with physicality in the paint defensively and rebounding.
Maxwell Lewis is listed at 6’6.25”, 7’ wingspan, with an 8’8.5” standing reach, at 207lbs.
Max Lewis turns 21 toward the end of July 2023, and has better linked movements in comparison to Kris Murray. Earlier this season, I was grossly optimistic about his offensive ability, even with some defensive issues to overcome.
Let’s take a look at his game.
It starts at 1:41. You see how patient he was anticipating the closeout, gave the jab fake, and with proper footwork, attacked drive left with a steep shin angle on the right leg, parallel to the floor (do a freeze frame at 1:43), while maintaining an upright posture, and did one left-handed accelerative dribble before finishing goofy-footed at the rim right handed. How do I know it’s goofy footed? Because the left knee is up, opposite of the right handed shot. This is technique, coordination, fluidity, and body control that to me, screams offensive upside.
At 1:47, he did it again, this time directly into the left-handed drive, one-lead dribble, long strides, jump off right leg, pick up and lead with the left knee, left-handed extension finish, and it was well coordinated too. Did you see how soft the touch was off the backboard? Did you notice how high the layup actually was to soften the shot, considering the angle? Whew.
Here, he attacks dribbling left, and while he gets a half-step advantage on the drive due to the screen, he’s still able to maintain his speed or accelerate under contact defensively. This is NBA translatable.
The 2:56 mark is like a fake right-to-left rip, left-hand dribble, step back, pull up 3-point shot on balance. Linked, coordinated movements, and it looks easy for him.
Then finally, at the 3:36 mark, drive left, right hand arm bar, hit the brakes upon contact, crossover, reaccelerated into the drive.
All of these are examples of what I think is his best NBA trait, not the 3-point shooting. He is creating out of isolation using accelerative and decelerative traits, while linking change of direction and flowing from one movement to the other before finishing plays with long strides. Lottery. Stuff.
So, why is he considered a mid-late 1st round pick?
Defense. It’s not unusual to be loved by anyone. It’s not unusual to have fun with anyone. But when I see undisciplined and unfocused defense, it’s not unusual to see me cry, I wanna die.
I hope you, the reader, understood that reference.
Simply put, he’s great at being proactive, but he’s not as great being reactive. It really stands out defensively. Some of it is just ball-watching. Some of it is a lack of anticipation of screens. Some of it is being out of position. Some of it is just being a half-step behind when the opponent has committed to one move. His great advantage of directional stride length on offense, works opposite of favor defensively, where he has to shift weight laterally, and it just takes extra time.
Now, I’m not a strength and conditioning person. I’ve seen players improve balance through contact (you’re awesome Brandon Ingram), but I’m not clear about player’s being able to strengthen their core and handle shifts in weight in either direction more easily.
Early on, he has to be placed on the least offensive threatening player. He’s simply more comfortable in space, attacking passing lanes or going to block shots without facing contact.
If a team is confident in building that kind of strength, along with defensive awareness, and technique, he can at least be a solid defender. He has very clear fluid movements and body control offensively. It just needs to show defensively too, with added strength.
So, what does this mean for the Lakers?
If you want a, “I know what I’ve got,” kind of player, Murray makes sense. If you want to take a chance on that offensive ability and expanding on it, Max Lewis can be that kind of offensive player. Otherwise, I’m more comfortable with Leonard Miller as a two-way player, with Djurisic being able to at least make team defensive reads and utilize strength, with Cissoko being overbearing defensively under all circumstances and trying to rein that in, and with Bufkin being a point of attack defender, that could improve pick-and-roll defense just with better defensive communication and knowing what to do.
This is all part of what makes the draft fun, and fortunately, the Lakers have already brought in Leonard Miller and Max Lewis in for pre-draft workouts. Something tells me they’ve made up their mind on the player they would choose between the two, but frankly, Coach Phil Handy could really optimize their movement skills and make them both killers on offense.
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