1st Round Draft Thoughts and a 2nd Round List for LAL
Details on multiple players
The date for declaring for the draft is nearing. This upcoming Wednesday, 5/27, players are going to state if they’re deciding to stay in the draft or withdraw. But before that happens, I just want to say that even with a list of guys already withdrawing from the draft, this is still among the deepest drafts I’ve ever seen. I have a list of roughly six players that I’d like LAL to look at in the first round. However, I also think that the mid 2nd round has a large group of players of a similar tier of talent, and of course, most of them are centers.
That being said, I don’t claim to know the draft philosophies of other teams. But I just wanted to briefly comment on certain players in this upcoming draft.
Darryn Peterson
Darryn Peterson is the #1 player in this draft. At least, I think so. This is a risk, considering it leans away from the idea of highly talented bigger players at wing and power forward in Boozer and Dybantsa. There’s two things about his game that stand out to me. One, he played injured to some degree all season, and was still able to have scoring flurries for half a game in a way that would resemble Klay Thompson on a heater. He did this for multiple games this season.
Two, of the three players, he is a more natural defensive playmaker with athletic ability to challenge shots and passes. Boozer stood out as a player that isn’t a strong rim protector. Dybantsa’s defensive awareness wasn’t a high point. This wasn’t an issue with Peterson. If a healthy Victor Oladipo is just a median outcome, that’s a tremendous outcome, but he can certainly surpass that.
One of the things that throws me off a bit is his player interviews. He has short answers, direct and to the point. It comes off as a player that may be a loner, but I think he’s just a player that’s just supremely focused on getting the most of his talent. Maybe I’m Spurs-pilled, but it comes off as Tim Duncan-like or Kawhi Leonard-like, and not a player that’s aloof.
Is there a top tier point guard?
I don’t think this draft class has a PG1. Yes, it’s a top tier point guard draft class for talent and depth, but players like Flemings, Wagler, Brown Jr., and Acuff all scream late lottery to mid-1st round types. I’m not as convinced like I was with Dylan Harper, who I would have chosen as PG1 in this draft and would consider him #3 or #4 in this draft.
I know teams are searching for their captain to run a team, and the guy I like the most is Wagler for setting the example. I find Flemings a bit small. If Mikel Brown Jr’s health wasn’t a concern, I might have him PG1. Acuff’s defense is somehow worse than Trae Young. Even Dylan Harper had question marks about his defense, and rightfully so, but his combination of shake, rim pressure, strength, and finishing ability were top tier. I’m concerned this PG class is more like Jeremiah Fears, Rob Dillingham, Brandin Podziemski, and Kobe Bufkin. There’s some sort of severe flaw one way or another with a few exceptions. Maybe I’m reaching too far the other direction. But if those guys don’t reach that PG1 status eventually, they all drop pretty severely. The bar to be a PG1 is just that high. Maybe I’m wrong.
If you asked me to rank the point guards:
Wagler
Flemings
Philon
Brown Jr.
Acuff
There’s absolutely a world where Acuff is the best guy here. But I’m more comfortable with the processes of Wagler, Flemings, and Philon with how they provided rim pressure. Acuff comes across as more of a mid-range and 3-point specialist. It really wouldn’t surprise me if you flipped that list upside down and that was the actual order of best player available. Hopefully we get news of player workouts and the point guard class finds ways to stand out.
LaBaron Philon
Speaking of point guards, I think Philon is incredibly underrated. He’s the one point guard where I think he shows all the qualities of being a PG1, but there are question marks about his size and athleticism.
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First of all, I don’t think he’s a bad athlete at all. He’s actually a REALLY good one. He’s really shifty, he has advanced footwork, his hand-eye coordination stands out with his ball-handling, passing ability, and just how much his 3-point accuracy progressed from last year to this year. It jumped from 31.5% to 39.5%, but it wasn’t just spot up 3-point shots. There were limited movement shots, a lot of off-the-dribble pull-up 3s, shooting when defenders sagged behind screens; the works. He breaks my traditional shooting threshold of what makes a future NBA guard.
Last year, he shot .657 / .445 / .399 / .798. That’s close 2s, long 2s, 3-point, and free throw percentage. He’s a three level threat.
He’s listed at 6.2.5” w/o shoes with a 6’6'.25” wingspan, 8’3.5” standing reach, at 176lbs at the time of the combine. He showed much better defensive ability as a freshman and when the usage went up, the defensive ability dropped down a level or two. He at least showed that he has the ability to defend, even if the effort appeared inconsistent last year. There's no doubt he was the captain of Alabama.
Yaxel Lendeborg and Cameron Carr
Also, why aren’t Yaxel Lendeborg and Cameron Carr mid lottery players? If you told any NBA team that they had a free shot of a power-wing sized, productive NBA player on both ends of the floor, they’d jump all over it. But in Yaxel’s case, that’s a late lottery pick? Why? Because of age? This isn’t a Dalton Knecht situation where Knecht was #1 for the University of Tennessee. Yaxel went from a #1 guy to a #2 or #3 guy on a stacked Michigan team, still competed very well defensively, and found ways to shine in a position that’s not the most natural to him at small forward. He can play, and I’d argue is easily a Top 8 rotation player from the jump with the ability to start.
Meanwhile, Cam Carr finally got minutes for Baylor and is a top tier athlete with a good motor on defense, but has an NBA 3-point shot and goes all the way for a dunk once he’s in the painted area on drives. He’s a long jumper. He does need to refine several defensive techniques and at a listed 184lbs at the combine, he plays bigger than his weight suggests. Here’s a guy that can hang with anyone athletically in the league, isn’t afraid to attack the basket, can space defenses, and have some defensive impact? He’s among the best play finishers in this draft. That’s a mid lottery player to me. Actually, I think both of them should be ranked that high.
Aday Mara
I’ve seen the lottery rankings for Mara. I’m just not as optimistic. One of the reasons why I was so high on Montiejus Krivas, especially for the Lakers, was how he worked on the details of being a bigman that didn’t show on the box score. He rooted guys out of the paint. He boxed out consistently. He did an excellent job with verticality, which had the effect of being an All Defensive player at the NCAA level. No, he didn’t get 14 rebounds per game, or 4 blocks per game, but the way he played had that kind of effect.
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Then there’s Aday Mara, a player I have several questions about. He’s an absolute giant at 7’3” with a 7’6” wingspan and a 9’9” standing reach at about 260 lbs. at the time of the combine. Yet, I just didn’t think he was a physical player like Krivas was. I didn’t think he held position in the paint rebounding well because his center of gravity is so high. He rebounds by reach, which of course works with a standing reach near the actual hoop. He’s an intimidating shot-blocker as well. But what sticks out in my mind is Purdue finding ways to attack his chest and getting a win against Michigan. Braden Smith just repeatedly exploited him in pick and roll situations. He’s been played off the basketball floor too. I find that Mara does the “loud” things really well, whether it’s lob dunks from rim-height passes, passing to cutters, and blocking shots on pure length. Yet, when Krivas went against him in the post, he took Mara under the hoop and scored jump hooks on him. I still argue that Krivas has way better shooting touch than Mara, and that shows in his free throw percentage (.78 vs .564), long 2-point percentage (.538 vs .411), and both shot 30% behind the arc on minimal sample for the year. I guess teams are willing to bet on impact, but you can’t change the length of a player’s legs (without severe risk) and I’m actually concerned if the center of gravity may cause injury issues down the line.
Chris Cenac Jr.
If the Lakers had depth and a more established player development program, I’d love to see the team reach for him. The athletic tools are absolutely there. He’s mobile enough to be a trap, hard hedge, flat hedge, and switch defender. He’s comfortable shooting midrange shots with relative easy. He has an instinct for getting defensive rebounds by chasing them down and showing great vertical on the first and second leap.
So why don’t I want him for the Lakers? Simply put, he lacks strength. I think of him as a power forward more than a center. If he had basketball feel on both ends of the floor, I would consider making player comps to Evan Mobley, but instead, the overall impact just isn’t there. He’ll likely stay in the draft and get selected mid-to-late 1st round, but he’s a player that I think should go back to school. His current trajectory looks like Bobby Portis leaning to LaMarcus Aldridge. That’s how special I think his size (6’10.25” w/o shoes, 7’5” wingspan, 9’0.5” standing reach at 240lbs) in combination with his touch, and athletic ability are. Maybe he’s really just a future power forward and not the defensive anchor we’d like him to be.
The draft is about drafting athleticism, strength, basketball IQ, feel, and developing skills. This is why players peak at age 25 and later. It’s unfortunate to see Cenac get outmuscled by bigger guards and wings, let alone frontline bigs. It’s discouraging to see defensive mistakes he makes where he’s out of position.
Lower on Allen Graves, Koa Peat, Nate Ament, and Tounde Yessoufou
It’s strange to be out on players that are generally thought of as 1st rounders, and possibly two as lottery picks. But here’s the short of it:
Allen Graves has basketball feel and is a good pick-and-pop 3pt shooter with some interior touch. But if he’s too small to defend 5s and to slow to defend 4s, who does he defend? Maybe that’s why he averages 5.5 fouls per-40 minutes of play, a rate far too high to stay on the floor. Yes, it’s under 6 fouls per game, but imagine getting 3 fouls in 12 minutes of playing time. That’s what that number truly indicates. He gambles a lot, which is why I’ve stated on twitter, he defends the hands more than the body. This is how he gets deflections and steals. He aims for where the opponent is expecting to catch the ball, instead of tracking the ball. This is where fouls happen. Maybe he sees it as a better opportunity than defending his assignment more conservatively.
Koa Peat is a defensive power wing that lacks shooting touch. It’s strange to see him go from lottery rankings to the late 1st round in more recent mock drafts. If he just made his go-to shots; driving into the paint and pulling up from 12’, he’d be ranked higher. He changed his shot during the combine process, and there isn’t a lot of optimism for that shot extending to 3-point range. A shame really, considering how much I love how much defensive improvement he’s shown throughout the season, and he does attack the rim well.
Nate Ament took on a lot of offensive burden, perhaps more than he could handle. He has a .578 FTr and is listed at 6’9.5” w/o shoes, 6’11.5” wingspan, with a 9’1” standing reach, at just under 211 lbs. He shot sub 40% from the field for the year, but I don’t think it’s a touch problem. It’s a decision-making and processing problem. Every time I’ve watched him play, he gets the ball in the halfcourt, surveys the floor, and just attacks his man off the dribble repeatedly. He’s done a great job showing that he can be a physical player even if he’s underweight, but none of the scoring process ever looked easy. It looked like he forced a lot of shots, and even the easier ones were well contested because he couldn’t create separation.
I do wonder if he can be comfortable scaling down as a player, because it almost gives a hint to how Jaden McDaniels used to play. Jaden was barely a 40% field goal shooter, low 30% behind the arc, but in a funny way, had a lower free throw rate because he was able to get separation on fadeaway jumpshots or evade defenders. His steal rate back then was 1.4% with a block rate of 4.9%, and he had to carry his team too. Ament has a steal rate of 1.9% and a block rate of 2.7%, great for a wing. If he showed some poise, thought through his decision-making process, and made simple plays as a connector, I’d rank him highly as a potential 2-way wing. It’s just difficult to see how well players scale down in the NBA. Not every player is comfortable with it.
Tounde Yessoufou should be the ideal Laker. I think the theory of him is louder than the reality. He’s the hypothetical projected 3-and-D wing with strength. Like Ament, I think he struggled with offensive process. He takes bad shots early on the clock, heavily contested, for no reason. If it was an isolated situation, then there’d be no worries, but like Ament, I think he sees the defender in front of him, and not the big picture of how to create efficient offense as a team. It takes immense athleticism and skill level to get away with that approach and be a positive player.
Defensively, I think he struggles to scale down onto guards. He’s listed at 6’4.25” with a 6’10” wingspan, 8’7” standing reach, at just under 220lbs. This is basically ideal shooting guard size, but the modern NBA is also about defensive schemes, not just man-to-man defense. It would be helpful if he could defend PGs more effectively. Unlike Ament, I think he’s more comfortable as a catch-and-shoot player. Just, watching a Laker team having difficult time building congruency on offense due to injuries, makes the emphasis on decision-making from role players so much more important.
While I don’t expect any of these players to fall to the Lakers pick, I do think things would be interesting if Chris Cenac Jr., Nate Ament, and Koa Peat were available at #25. This is where teams should have different looking big boards. If I were OKC with a billion picks, I’d consider Cenac Jr., in the first round with their level of player development. I’d consider Koa Peat if there was a shooting specialist. I’d consider Nate Ament for Dallas just because of Phil Handy.
A List of 2nd Rounders to Look at for LAL.
The Lakers have a history of buying 2nd round picks from other teams, or finding guys that weren’t drafted. Last year, I had a lot of success with the Lakers buying a pick and leveling up that 2nd round pick to draft Adou Theiro, while they also took chances on players I had on my board in Eric Dixon (who unfortunately got injured before he could suit up for South Bay and moved onto the Memphis Hustle (because the Grizzlies have a huge history of taking ex-Laker players in Scotty Pippen Jr., Colin Castleton, and Jay Huff) and Augustus Marciulionis who showed well in the playing time he got for South Bay, but moved onto a better opportunity BC Rytas Vilnius.
That being said, here are a list of players I’m looking at that draft range:
Matt Able
Ugonna Onyenso
Baba Miller
Izaiyah Nelson
Ernest Udeh Jr.
Trevon Brazile
I think the Coachella Valley Lakers are an extension of the parent roster and there’s a chance for the 2-way players to extend the depth for the Laker team without counting against the cap. That makes it much more important to not just find project types for rarer archetypes, but hopefully players that can contribute immediately despite not having the most easy plug-and-play match. It’s hard enough to find 20 NBA players that’ll stick in the NBA in the draft. It’s that much more difficult to find 1 or 2 players that’ll stick in the NBA once the draft is over.
That being said, we’ll get a more finalized list of who’ll actually stay in the draft and hopefully, Veesaar, Jefferson, Richmond, Ejiofor, Reed Jr., and Isaiah Evans all stick. Rueben Chinyelu and Malachi Moreno have already decided to go back to school.
I really do think the 2nd round list has a few NBA guys that’ll stick, and even line up with what Tony Bennett’s philosophy in the Lakers press release. It’s exciting to see things round into shape with a month left to go until NBA draft day.
In the mean time, I’ll be listening to Out In Front and whatever Japanese emo bands (like Amusement Lager and Makkurage) Instagram throws at me.
Until next time…
Great work Mike! Thanks for putting this together and sharing it. Looking forward to what’s to come
Thank you for the article! Do you mind exploring more in your next letter on your second round list? What are the attributes that attracts you? What are their weaknesses?