Photo from an interview article with Kai Jones
Kai Jones is a stellar athlete. His position is somewhat undefined as it can go any of three directions in terms of archetype (3-and-D, shot creator at the 4 spot, finishing big), but he flashes guard-like movements at 6’10” size that are unparalleled in this draft.
There’s a lot to like here, and unfortunately, he is likely out of reach at the Lakers pick. However, with the unpredictability of the NBA draft and the inconsistencies of draft philosophy between teams, there’s a slim chance he could slip down to the Lakers pick.
Let’s get into what makes him an intriguing prospect with the upcoming NBA draft.
Size: Kai Jones is 6’10” w/o shoes, with a 7’1.75” wingspan and a 9’2.5” standing reach. 4.75% body fat 9” x 9.5” hand length by width. 221lbs.
Notes: Higher end of player size for wing players and power forwards alike. 9’2.5” standing reach is a competitive result vs. centers in the league. 4.75% body fat? How?
Shooting numbers: Link provided by Hoop Math
64.6% True shooting percentage
58% of his Field goal attempts are at the rim
74.7% Finishing ability at the rim
61.3% Assisted shots at the rim (some indication of off-ball ability)
18.2% of his Field goal attempts are 2-point range
30.8% 2-point field goal shooting
37.5% Assisted shots in 2-point range
23.8% of his Field goal attempts are 3-point shots
38.2% 3-point field goal shooting
.517 free throws attempted for every field goal attempt
68.9% free throw shooting
Notes: The intrigue can start here. .517 free throw rate is phenomenal, especially for a guy that doesn’t have a ton of shooting gravity (just 23.8% of his shots are behind the arc, but he hits at a good clip). Big defenders spaced him at the NCAA level behind the arc, and he was willing to take those open shots. Tremendous finishing ability with almost 2/3rds of his total attempts being at the rim and still being able to finish at a 74.7% clip. Talen Horton-Tucker finished at the rim with a 70.8% clip, but that was due to his wingspan, hands, and tremendous touch. Kai Jones shows that ability just with his athleticism.
13 minutes of fun:
Skillset: Dunking is a skill. One footed jumper on drives to finish with dunks off of a eurostep. Two feet gather dunk under the hoop through contact. Defensive rebounding isn’t phenomenal at 11.8%, but near outlier 10% offensive rebounding rate out of a potential wing is a tremendous result. It gives a hint to his motor around the hoop and willingness to make the extra effort, complemented well by his athletic abilities. Comfortable in catch and shoot situations behind the arc at all corners, but the shot arc is inconsistent at each corner. Primarily a right side, right-hand driver. Flashes the ability to decelerate and pull up for a jumpshot off of an initial drive. Doesn’t really change directions off the dribble, rather, with a euro step instead. Euro step has long strides and he’s still able to extend to the hoop well. Tons more comfortable defending on the ball rather than off-ball. Flashes guard-like isolation shot qualities and improvement throughout the season that hint at a player that can take on more offensive responsibilities.
The drive here at 1:14 tells me a lot:
The defense actually gives him the space to drive right. Good on him for reading his defender and utilzing jab steps to seek advantages. Instead of accelerating all the way to hoop and optimizing his quickness and speed, he uses a protective dribble with his body as a shield, stops, then goes up to finish strong. It’s good to see him show that kind of patience under the hoop, but at the same time, protective dribbles can lead to charges. There’s team defensive help either, so it’s an uncontested look.
Attacks a closeout here at the 5:46 mark, but it hints at his processing and the idea of him as a wing. Even when the 3-point shot was contested, and then got his drive blocked off, he was still able to create a turnaround mid-range jumper, and it looked relatively easy for him.
Wings create this kind of shot:
Finishing through contact:
Guard-like movement qualities allow him to go step-for-step defensively in isolation situations against all types of guards, including elite tier prospects like Cade Cunningham. He just has the athletic ability to reach and offer rim protection, but is most comfortable along the perimeter. In any case, he’s a switchable defensive player, that with an added dimension of strength (core and upper body), could be a hypothetical 1-5 defender at the NBA level, which is a scary thought.
Other advanced numbers via Sports Reference:
10% Offensive Rebounding Percentage
11.8% Total Rebound Percentage
5.4% Assist Rate
2.1% Steal Rate
4.2% Block Rate
16.8% Turnover Rate
18% Usage Rate
Would like to see with NBA development:
Better awareness. Low assist rate (5.4%) is acceptable for a dominant finisher in the paint that’ll translate to the NBA level. Awareness issues also show defensively when trying to protect the rim off of his own assignment; just a bit late or out of position. Better ability to handle contact. While he has the athletic ability to handle perimeter players and defend them well, defending bigs and being more physical defensively is more of a challenge. He aims to gamble and reach around bigs to force the turnover, instead of just being straight up and letting the team help him defensively.
Assuming the awareness kicks in earlier through repetition, then the fun stuff happens with better shot consistency behind the arc, better ball handling to create in isolation situations (like utilizing the 3-second isolation shot drill), then combining both to become a pull up jump shooter. Left-handed ball handling would be great as well. I just don’t see NBA level power forwards and some wings being able to stop his right handed drives too much.
Ultimately though, he’s a late bloomer to basketball, so it’s easy to see the upside, and also, the things he needs to work on.
From Basketball News: “In 2017, Jones, then standing at 6-foot-9 and only weighing around 170 pounds, walked into Kendal G.L. Isaacs National Gymnasium in his hometown of Nassau, Bahamas to compete at the Basketball Without Borders (BWB) camp. This was the first time that Jones had played organized basketball, as he had only played pickup at playgrounds up to that point. “
Additional information about Kai’s growth and development can be found within the article.
Where Does He Fit?
If Kai Jones were to slip to the Lakers pick, this is an upside play. The Lakers have a wonderful player development coach in Coach Phil Handy, who has worked with Kawhi Leonard, Kobe Bryant, and now with Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Kai Jones has the baseline attributes that make for an NBA player that can dominate on both ends of the floor with his size and athletic gifts. The rest, is up to his skill level, all of which needs to be added. However, just being a more consistent 3-point shooter and adding strength makes him a stretch-4 that can attack closeouts. That, in itself, makes him a unicorn. The outlier outcome is becoming proficient with his jumpshot at all three levels (arc, midrange, paint), expanding on his ball handling to accelerate to the hoop left or right handed, and adding a change of direction to that drive to shake defenders a bit, and utilizing his long strides and reach to get to the rim. Those abilities would make him arguably, the biggest wing player next to Kevin Durant, and this is before we think about adding playmaking reads and running pick and roll efficiently. Durant was a much purer ball handler, shooter, and passer by age but acquiring a player that is even half of the skill level but matches similar size attributes, is a player that gives a team a competitive advantage over the rest of the league.