Some Things I've Learned, Draft Philosophy
The game is always evolving, and so should the thought process
Every year, I immerse myself with the NBA draft. It is constantly changing. One method may work for one year, and the same thought process can possibly ruin a team the following year.
I’ve been tracking the draft one way or another since Jerry West was a Laker GM. I remember the emphasis on just getting young athletes and hoping teams would teach skills. I remember watching the Lakers draft out of positional need from the early 2000’s and how that just didn’t really work. It didn’t work for a lot of other teams too.
It still doesn’t.
Skills became more of the priority, and then there’s the skills within the skills. Can the player dribble? Can the player speed dribble? Can the player change direction with the dribble? Can the player change direction, multiple times with the dribble? Can the player time the dribble leading to a one-handed pass properly? Can the player do those same things, with the off-hand?
We’re just talking about dribbling, right?
Can the player shoot? Can the player make shots when open? Can the player make shots when it’s contested? Can the player keep the same shot form under different types of contests? Is the player more efficient on one side of the floor vs. the other? Can the player make shots off the dribble? Can the player make shots off-balance? Can the player use the same fundamentals with footwork, base, balance, and shot form through all of the different dynamics of shooting? Does the player have an efficient counter when the best shot is taken away?
We’re just talking about shooting, right?
All of this is important, but this past year, I’ve thought about more of a macro view of players and what can help determine NBA success.
A tweet was mentioned related to draft philosophy and that led to a series of quote tweets of what people had in mind.
I felt that my response had the most macro view. This led to a long thread of my recently adapted draft philosophy.
Reading the Floor
So, what does it mean to be able to read both sides of the floor? That in itself is a difficult question, with many different answers. If the player is a point guard, you’d like to see how quickly a point guard can expose a defensive mismatch, and then organize the team to give the player space in isolation. If the player is a center, sometimes it’s just knowing the personnel on the floor, knowing a play ahead of time, knowing where the shot is coming from, and then killing the play with communication and defensive positioning. Sometimes, it can be as little as knowing who to box-out for a rebound. Sometimes, it’s a wing player understanding the space in which to operate in, and not driving into traffic, not forcing a pass when the defense didn’t commit, and creating a simple shot. There are many ways to make reads on the NBA floor, but this is what makes skill players incredibly successful, and the guys that can’t do this well, cannot optimize their skill sets, size, and athletic ability.
I have mentioned on twitter how Andre Jackson is my favorite player for this upcoming draft.
He knows how to read the floor.
We don’t often see a swim-through technique to avoid a box-out. Not only does he get the offensive rebound, but he has the presence of mind to find the best shooter on his team open, and pass it to him.
Then there’s the defensive end:
It isn’t just about him going below the screen both times because Ricky Council IV is a sub-average three-point shooter (with a .505FTr) and playing him for the drive, but also doing the immediate drop switch, or “help-the-helper” defense once Council IV attacks and meets Sanogo. Andre Jackson plays the pass, gets the deflection, and creates the turnover.
Physicality
So, what does it mean to be physical? The short answer for me is, a player that plays bigger than their size. I want to see a small guard box-out if necessary. I want to see small players be comfortable switching defensively against bigger guys and competing.
I want to see smaller players handle bigger responsibilities and facilitate to a teammate’s success.
It helps if they can win a particular play. This definitely comes to mind:
This particular play definitely stands out.
Playmaking can be done off-the-ball too, and Alex Caruso has shown multiple examples of that throughout his career.
In general, awareness is the most important aspect of the game on both ends of the floor, otherwise, how will a player know what strengths to use to attack the weak links?
These are the skills that aren’t easily measured. I’m not going to find this on Sports Reference, Hoop Math, or even Synergy.
The 2023 Draft
Finding players that can read the floor and be physical in the draft isn’t easy. Wembanyama is so skilled and has outlier physical gifts. How much does he really need to read the floor before he decides to just shoot over the defense? How late can he be defensively before reaching for a block on the rim?
Scoot Henderson, on the other hand, has been running a talented G-League Ignite team and making reads on the offensive end as to what makes for the best shot in the possession.
Austin Reaves is easily, a more recent example of a player that showed the ability to read the defense, create a play, and be a physical player. The age didn’t matter. The wingspan didn’t matter. The athleticism didn’t matter. The idea of upside didn’t matter. The position he played, didn’t matter. He played up to his skill level and physicality, and got every ounce of positive play he could within his abilities. The Lakers were already stacked with guards and still went with him. The Lakers didn’t “draft” him positionally, and it didn’t take him long at all for him to be a Top 5 player on the roster. Best player available? Absolutely.
Max Christie, is also showing some ability with his reactive defense. He isn’t just a good defender one-on-one, but his head is on a swivel, always looking out for how a play develops. He’s surprisingly comfortable absorbing the chest bump on drives, even when he’s usually matched against bigger players.
All Of It Matters
Player upside was originally thought to be based on physical tools. Over time, I’ve learned it’s a combination of things, but the foundation of it stems from being able to read the floor and being physical. The work ethic to enhance skill level matters. Health matters. The correct approach to the season matters. Being a facilitator to a teammate’s success, within one’s own abilities matters. Put all of this together, and the result is a player that not only has tremendous success for his/her self, but also becomes a critical link to the team and ultimately leads to team success.
That’s the best player available.
Lovely piece! Looking forward to your peieces on 2023 draft prospects!