Now, for a remainder of that #11-#20 list. I made a few changes.
Photo by Mira Kireeva on Unsplash
16. Jett Howard
17. Brandin Podziemski
18. Dereck Lively II
Admittedly, I am more indecisive around this general area of the draft. Some players are specialists, others are more two-way players, but not with special skill at both ends of the floor. I rearranged it a bit since yesterday.
I moved Jalen Hood-Schefino and Brice Sensabaugh out of this area and just picked guys that I actually like. I have since played Kris Murray at #19 and Maxwell Lewis at #20.
As mentioned before, please feel free to watch the YouTube links and subscribe to the accounts. They are great sources of information and have helped me out with this draft process a ton.
Let’s take a look at who these players are.
Jett Howard - There has been a lot of movement based on his shooting results, despite the injury late in the season hurting his shooting percentages and some athleticism. This is also why I don’t always specifically look at numbers alone. The context is too important, just like how they actually play on film.
Offensively, Jett Howard impresses. Some Laker fans have heard about trade rumors for Buddy Hield, and while the percentages don’t reflect the giant strides of improvement and consistency that Hield did for his collegiate career, Jett has at least flashed for a good part of the season, the movement shooting with size that is tough to stop.
Jett Howard demonstrates what I initially look at in prospects. What do they do best? When the defense takes that away, what can they do to compensate? When nothing is working, what can they do to stay on the floor?
Simply put, Jett Howard is a hyphen-phrased shooter. Catch-and-shoot. Dribble-hand-off pull-ups. Pull-up-shooting off-the-dribble. Movement shooting. When defenses press him up high to contest, he has the reactionary ball-handling ability and initial changes of direction to create just enough of an open look. When the team defense as a whole adjusts to that, he has shown ability to find the open man. Not bad for general wing size right? Too bad he didn’t participate in the NBA Pre-Draft combine player measurement test.
While all of that is alluring, his game leans away from what I think the Lakers’ team identity is; playing with physicality, athleticism, and preferably, in transition. It’s no surprise that the Lakers’ best players are among the most physical ones and use their size.
Jett isn’t that type of player. He’s not one to impose athleticism on either end of the floor, be an incredible defensive playmaker, or hit the boards. Sure, that sounds really detrimental of a prospect, and yet, I could have said the same things of Buddy Hield, Peja Stojakovic, and other similar shooting archetypes, and all of them have found value in the NBA as positive contributors.
This is the part of the draft where the road to becoming a best player available at the pick is more murky. It’s easy to see opponents exploiting him defensively, but if nothing else, he will be able to provide the incredible value of real shooting gravity at the next level.
Brandin Podziemski - Here’s a player I’ve gone back and forth all season. I think he has the best general touch in the entire draft. Maybe you thought it was Jett Howard, but Podziemski hits a ton of tough shots with a quick release, near the rim or out to 27’.
Fortunately, he did participate in the NBA Pre-Draft Combine and is listed at 6’3.75” w/o shoes and a 6’5.5” wingspan. Initially that looks great, but I do wonder if the standing reach was somehow altered. It measured at 8’0.5”, an unusually low number for his given height. If it matters to you, his initial vertical tested at 31” with a max vertical of 39”. Personally, I’d rather see a better standing reach. Either way, I do see him at NBA point guard size, and in some cases, he plays a bit bigger than his size with some post play.
Craft. It defines his game. He’s cerebral with skills. He has a floater range out to 15’. He’s comfortable with pull-up jumpers in transition well behind the arc. He has tremendous shot variation out to the 3-point arc and it’s easy to see him work in any playbook. He has a high release point and doesn’t need a large window to get shots off and make with accuracy.
According to Hoop Math, he’s a 60/43/44/77 shooter; that’s at the rim, all other 2-point ranges, arc shooting, and free throw stripe. These are incredible percentages considering the contests he sees.
He also rebounds! Height isn’t an indicator of rebounding, but the willingness to chase rebounds is. He finished the season with a 13.7% total rebound rate, and a 21.6% defensive rebound rate. That’s good for 8.8 rebounds per game in 36 minutes of play.
He strikes me more as a playmaking shooting guard, rather than an offensive engine expected out of point guards. Perhaps it’s surprising that Santa Clara didn’t run more pick-and-rolls, but their playtypes reminded me more of what the Golden State Warriors run, and he’s completely comfortable with it. On-ball and off-ball, he can find ways to get into the paint with behind-the-back dribbles, changes in speed, and one change of direction.
Why isn’t he ranked higher than Jalen Hood-Schefino more often?
Defense. The NBA is just a different world of athlete, and it isn’t just athleticism, it’s size. Players usually have one or the other, mostly both. Podziemski’s game has craft, and only the most refined skill/craft players hang in the league. It’s easy for opponents to see him as a target, and there may not be enough standing reach to compensate on close outs to shooters. But hey, this is how guys like Steve Nash and Mark Price fell mid-to-late 1st round. Both were long time NBA players, All-Stars, and even Nash won MVPs. They all know how to play the game. I think Podziemski knows how to play.
Dereck Lively II - Admittedly, I haven’t been high on him throughout the entire season. The idea of a defensive minded center with limited switchability and limited shot creation isn’t appealing to me. However, I did reconsider when I watched the Pre-Draft combine shooting and some high school footage demonstrating similar perimeter shooting touch.
I’m not a fan of NCAA teams hiding player skills, but it seems to be done quite often.
While he didn’t participate in the NBA Pre-Draft Combine Measurements, other sources have him listed at 7’1” with a 7’7” wingspan.
Two-way bigs with defensive skill lean away from what I look for most in prospects. But that doesn’t mean Dereck Lively isn’t a good prospect. He’s a two-way prospect that is capable of meeting the level of the ball in pick-and-roll situations defensively, drop coverage, or as an anchor around the rim. His wingspan makes up for a ton in terms of foot speed. Not that the footspeed is bad, he has pretty good defensive footwork when he’s forced onto switches. He just makes up the difference in space with wingspan than footwork and position. As long as it works, right?
Offensively, I have more question marks. He’s a lob threat with a great catch radius, but I tend to like bigs to do more big-man things. I like seeing proper screens set in pick-and-roll situations. I like seeing dribble-hand-off situations handled well. He likes to slip screens, or use part of that slip to shield or seal off the defender as he’s rolling to the hoop. Just bigs can be playmakers too and a big way for them to give teammates open shots is to set proper screens.
At least, there’s optimism for his shooting. I think it’s actually good shooting form with timeliness, and it’s just a matter of reps before it gets to a solid level.
Foul trouble may be an issue next level, and star NBA centers are giants. A 5.3 personal foul rate per 40 minutes isn’t great at all, and I think it’ll come down to a certain strength level to temper some of those fouls in isolation.
The reason for my optimism in him as a prospect lies in his physical tools, defensive motor, rebounding ability, and his approach as a lob target. It’s incredibly difficult to achieve a 15.2% total rebounding rate next to a 12.7% block rate in combination. That is roughly 4.7 blocks and 10.5 rebound per 40 minutes played. He’s ranked #1 in Defensive Rating (91.1) in the ACC, #1 Box Plus/Minus in the ACC (9.3), and #3 in block percentage for the entire NCAA. Needless to say, he can be incredibly impactful. I just think it might take some time. Assuming he adds the requisite strength, sets proper screens, and is able to hang against larger centers without getting into foul trouble, you’ve got a high quality starting center with the possibility of drawing 3-point gravity in the way that Myles Turner can.
That, is a unicorn.
Before I wrap things up, special thanks to the YouTube creators that do tremendous work. I follow all of them and basically treat these channels like TV.
Jett Howard, Brandin Podziemski, and Dereck Lively II are all legit prospects. Personally, I’m hoping that someone that I have projected in the lottery or near lottery will slip, like Leonard Miller, Sidy Cissoko, or even Nikola Djurisic, who I still seem to be among the highest on.
But, if all of those players are picked early, there’s still plenty of reason to be excited for a wing-sized movement shooter, a crafty guard with high end shooting and passing skills, or a potential two-way unicorn big.
As more research is completed, I may adjust the board accordingly, but until then for the end of May, this is the current ranking I see fit.
I anticipate comments and questions about Brice Sensabaugh, Jalen Hood-Schefino, Kris Murray, Maxwell Lewis, and other players I currently have ranked on my big board.
The search for #47 is a far more challenging process…
Am I correct in this assessment:
On offense, the difference between Jett Howard and Brice Sensabaugh is that Howard is a shooter where as Sensabaugh is more the “bucket-getter?”
Both are “big wings” but they don’t seem to play any defense at all. I’m guessing Howard’s shooting prowess is more valuable than Howard’s midrange prowess.
Their lack of physicality doesn’t seem to make them ideal for the Lakers, as you said. But, maybe coaches could be convinced they could get it out of them, like we did with Rui, who wasn’t known for his defense either.