Nikola Djurisic
Is he worth it at #17?
I was optimistic about Nikola Djurisic’s game since last year. After watching a game against OTE including both Ausar and Amen Thompson, I felt he could hang to that level of game speed.
I just went through a two-hour film session focusing on Djurisic’s most recent season.
Here are a few notes I took:
He’s a better athlete than perceived.
I would say his comfortable shooting range is 19’ and in.
He gives the appearance of well distributed play-types; a fair share of pick-and-roll ball handler, coming off of screens, pull up jump shooting, with a very limited amount in catch-and-shoot situations.
His shooting touch is a bit inconsistent.
I shouldn’t specify shooting touch. It’s more like, the action from his shoulder to the release point after he’s in the shot pocket, changes by the way he’s defended and the playtype that he’s involved in.
Film Session
I wouldn’t expect anyone to sit through all of that. But the biggest difference to me between last year and this year is, he looks a little slimmer, and while he has changed his jumpshot release point, the results haven’t changed as dramatically.
For what it’s worth, he gets an awful lot of paint touches out of pick-and-roll and isn’t afraid of contact at the rim. But in terms of initiating contact from the perimeter to the rim, it’s a different story. He’s evasive to his level of competition. Sometimes he’ll initiate contact on the drives early to create space, and defenders just meet him at the rim.
One may expect him to be a killer shooter, in the mold of the Bogdanovic brothers, but that’s not his game. It’s weird to say, but he’s a rim pressure threat with plenty of NBA moves expected of a high end wing player. Putting guys in jail? Hesitation crossovers to create space? Single step burst on mismatches? Side step shots? Step backs? Playing with pace in pick and roll? He demonstrates all of that, which is the key part of why I like him so much as a player.
When Nikola Topic isn’t on the team, he’s the lone attacking perimeter threat. It does make it easier for defenses to focus on him both on-and-off the ball. It’s just tough to see a player expected to scale down in usage at the NBA level and not be a consistent catch-and-shoot threat at multiple corners.
Shooting Optimism
So, he has the NBA moves, but does he have the NBA touch?
This clip is what gives me optimism. Pull up jumpshots are among the most difficult shots in the NBA, or any level for that matter, but here, he looks relaxed, he’s seeing the floor, and he makes it look easy.
It starts at 27:32 and goes on until 28:30. I’ll leave the link of the full session.
That one minute of play was the most relaxed, well-paced, controlled shooting exhibition he showed in the entire video. He’s not at full max-vert on his jumpshots, but those pull up jumpers all look easy, with the proper arc, and never rushed.
Throughout the first 30 minutes of the video, we see all types of shots. I mostly focused on the extended range shots. The results were wildly inconsistent, from the height of the jumpshot, to the speed from the shoulders and ending at the release point.
That “hammer” motion once the ball is in the shot pocket is inconsisent from extended range. It doesn’t matter if it’s catch-and-shoot, pull-up jumper, coming off of a screen, loosely defended, or well contested. It’s rarely the same shot twice.
The consistency of the jumpshot really comes 19’ and in. It’s like he took the advanced classes of shooting early on (in terms of getting good looks) and did enough to just make it passable, but when it comes to consistent shooting motion, being on balance, and having a consistent release in catch-and-shoot situations, he’s not there yet.
If ever there was a player that I’d like to see 25 shots a corner with form shooting to 15’, 20’, then 23’, it’s him.
Defense
He’s a team defender at best. I would argue the best aspect about his defense are his strong hands and some ability to anticipate. During a game, there are times he gets mixed up with off-ball movement. He’s usually defending a weaker perimeter player, but does a solid job of picking the next pass over or shooting a gap to force a turnover.
He also gets screened off easily. I can’t imagine him being a chase defender, at least this early in his career. It takes a degree of motor, footwork technicality, defensive anticipation, and physicality to be proficient as a chase defender. He’s just not there yet.
It’s difficult to find an impactful NBA defender so early into a career, and it’s likely that a team would just want him to stay at base and making proper rotations instead of gambling for steals. Throughout the video he does show that, even with a limited amount of rim protection.
I also think, players commit to certain gambles because if the opponent catches the ball, then there’s limited chance of contesting the shot. Some players are high risk with going for steals, but if you’re in the mind of the player, and you think gambling for the steal or deflection gives you a 35/65 shot of winning the play vs 10/90, wouldn’t you take it?
A key part in being a solid perimeter defender isn’t just making the right rotations. It’s also the ability to make the read on-time and close out to shooters. Djurisic has shown he has great decelerative ability on offense, but when it comes to closeouts, he’s likely to fly past the shooter or close out short and then contest the shot. It’s not the greatest technique, because it implies that the defender is always late to contesting the shot. If a defender was on time, chances are, the opponent isn’t taking the shot at all.
Should the Lakers draft him at #17?
In short, no. While I was optimistic about his play last year, I didn’t see a large leap in improvement. Instead, it was subtle improvement in a wide range of areas, from pick-and-roll patience to having better defensive awareness. My big board is still in progress, but I can imagine him being a late-1st round to early 2nd round pick.
The optimistic trajectory comes when his shooting becomes consistent. Personally, I can’t get the criticism of, “once he learns how to shoot,” as a primary criticism, but he’s not expected to be a high end 1v1 defender or a chase defender. He doesn’t have a high motor for rebounding so it comes down to offensive ability. There, his passing reads, accuracy, and velocity can really show if given enough pick-and-roll repetitions.
Frankly, he’s likely to scale down as a catch-and-shoot/attack the close outs type on offense early on. The issue here is, is his shot consistent enough to demand a high velocity closeout? Will it draw gravity? At this point, I would say no, which is disappointing to say considering how much more advanced he is in 1v1 creation and pick-and-roll situations.
In order to get those kind of offensive reps, especially at the NBA level, the shooting gravity absolutely has to be there. Shooting is his easiest path instead of becoming a high level ball-handler (like Kyrie, Steph, or CP3) and being able to draw defensive attention just by being a ball-handling threat.
Please feel free to support Hardwood Hoops Central’s NBA Draft Green Room. This YT channel is incredibly helpful every draft season and helps me catch up on things with a limited span of time.
If you want to donate to the channel, please do so by CashApp at $HWHC23.
Conclusion
Chances are, this is why he may be projected as more of a second round pick. If he was compared to Dalton Knecht or Ja’Kobe Walter, it’s more obvious that Djurisic is a more creative playmaker off the dribble, while Knecht and Walter have better consistency with the initial stage of being a spot up shooter and attacking closeouts. Their roles are just easier to project.
As of now, I’d have Knecht over Djurisic, and then Walter after Djurisic in terms of draft order. Walter doesn’t have great shooting percentages either, nor does he demonstrate the playmaking ability of Djurisic, and Djurisic is just seven months older.
It’s unfortunate really, because if Djurisic gets over that hump, it unlocks a world of offensive playmaking linked to shooting gravity and athleticism at wing size that’ll be tough to match, even for guys like Knecht and Walter. I would even argue that Djurisic is the more fluid and explosive athlete over Knecht, but with Knecht’s role being so easy to project, especially after playing a high usage role and facing a lot of defensive adversity this season, he’d be the one to take, even if he’s roughly 2-1/2 years older than Djurisic.