My Watch Has Begun

Taking general notes on a few players

The draft process has begun for me, and that starts with a general watch from players that have declared for the NBA draft. This helps me get a feel for the field of talent trying to make it into professional leagues.

Usually this starts with extended watches with players at the top, with a lot of perusing through what each guy does best.

Included is a link to a big board that I’m working on currently:

https://fanspo.com/draft-big-boards/8D-AIKcYuEmCem

So, here are some general notes I’ve taken:

Keon Ellis - It’s best to simplify how he’s seen. Gerald Green, 3-and-D role player. While I definitely think he should be drafted, chances are he drops down due to age and frame factors. He’s 22 years old, listed as 6’6” and 170lbs. But, that doesn’t stop him from doing what he can defensively with a two-year average 3.4% Steal Rate and 2.1% Block Rate.

According to Hoop Math, he takes 24.1% of his shots at the rim, finishes at a 71.6% clip, and shot roughly 37% behind the arc with an incredibly high 60% of his total shots behind the arc, while still having a solid free throw rate at 37% as well.

One of my favorite aspects about him, is the fact that he is so productive on just 17.1% usage rate. He’s a guy that’s clear about his role, yet just has enough awareness to find the open man if he’s double-covered. Speaking of double-covered, as a role player, he’s capable of drawing that kind of 3-point gravity, being such a threat behind the arc, while pump fakes and side-step threes don’t seem to affect his accuracy.

The concern is, he’ll be targeted defensively as a role player. While he isn’t afraid of a certain level of physicality, especially indicated by how he helps out defensively due to his block rate, his foul rate for a guard is unusually high. Fortunately, at his last year in Alabama, he improved his foul rate from 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes down to 3.4. There are also some issues with screen navigation as well, where it’s usually ideal to have long, rangy defenders with footspeed keep up. But, any guard player that has that kind of 3-point shooting ability, finishing ability, and capability to force turnovers and help out defensively, is always worth drafting.

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Jalen Williams - Jalen is a wing player that took on a shooting leap along with increased offensive responsibility for Santa Clara. He’s listed as 6’6” 190lbs., but something tells me that he weighs more than that. If I were to guess, he’s arguably 15lbs. heavier, with quite a long wingspan. Prior to looking at his statistical profile, I watched his highlights against Gonzaga. While it wasn’t his best shooting game, the point guard skills stuck out to me.

The video begins with a Nash-like left hand drive. Andrew Nembhard is defending the point of attacking, and Jalen gets a step on him to be level of his defender, and he’s simply able to complete the drive with his right arm tied down and extend for the finish.

The video shows him in multiple pick-and-roll situations, where he measures up the defender, utilizes screens, and navigates in the paint with a ton of patience. Some of his great passes led to turnovers, but Gonzaga made him a priority defensively with how they rotated four different defenders at him with Nembhard, Sallis, Drew Timme, and switch Holmgren onto him.

The passing off the dribble, willingness to absorb contact, ability to get into the paint, find open teammates, and as I found out later, three level scoring make him an easy 1st-round talent in this draft.

He has been listed on mock drafts as a mid-2nd rounder multiple times, but what kind of second rounder is wing-sized, initiates the offense, shoots 44% of his total field goal attempts at the rim, and has a 65/40/40/80 (rim, 2pt, 3pt, FT) shooting profile? There are no 2nd rounders like that and if I simply read the statistical profile, I would have thought he was an edge lottery player.

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Pete Nance - Pete Nance plays a lot like his brother, Larry Nance Jr. I missed out on Larry Nance Jr. in his draft class and learned why I did. I don’t want to make that same mistake again. Larry Nance Jr. got his father’s vertical ability, but Pete Nance got his father’s jumpshot.

Both players are ideal bigs for dribble-hand-off situations, pick-and-roll, or playing the high post. Both Larry and Pete demonstrate the ability to read the floor, make sharp passes, and be positive contributors on both ends. Both had 20%+ assist rates, 20%+ defensive rebounding rates, and 4%+ block rates on 25%+ usage.

The one thing Lakers would have loved early on from Larry Nance Jr. was some 3-point ability. It wasn’t just about making 3-point shots, but also having some gravity to open up the paint.

Pete does that.

Hoop Math shows a legit shooting profile overall. He shot 64% at the rim, 45% all other 2-point ranges, 45% behind the arc, and his free throw percentage solidified around 77% the past two seasons.

Admittedly, I’m a bit skeptical of that 3-point accuracy, because I think a vast majority of them came at the top of the key, not at the corners. There’s not a ton of volume there either, but 3, 3-point attempts a game shows some confidence in that shot. It wouldn’t surprise me if he became a solid high-post big with pick-and-pop ability at the next level.

He won’t be asked to create shots at the next level, but a player that’s roughly 6’10”, has some idea of rim protection, and can provide smart offensive play with connective passing and some 3-point gravity is valuable to all NBA teams.

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I’m starting my draft season a bit earlier than usual, but it’s worth highlighting three guys that are currently listed as 2nd round to undrafted. I do think all three of them are draftable for any NBA team and capable of having long careers. Next time, I want to take a deeper look at Julian Strawther, Roko Prkacin, and Dalen Terry.