Learning Tough Lessons in the Playoffs and Jefferson, Ejiofor, Chinyelu, Richmond
And how it impacts roster construction
I admit I haven’t watched the entire series against OKC. It’s not easy when knowing roster construction is such a severe issue, not just from the point of balanced talent, but also not enough of it.
Now, the Lakers are paying the price. Maybe, don’t solely focus on killer workouts from prospects (JHS). Maybe, actually interview guys that potentially slip in the draft and find out why they slipped (Knecht).
If you want to operate like a team that wins on the margins, you have to cover the margins. That means with a #25 pick in the draft, consider working out and interviewing guys projected from #15 - #40. Why such a spread?
Because the draft board of the Laker team should be different from all other NBA teams.
This is how I’ve had players like Jalen Johnson in the lottery, Austin Reaves, Herbert Jones, Julian Champagnie, Keon Ellis, Ajay Mitchell, and others ranked as 1st round talent.
Adou Theiro is also on that list. But what’s clear to me about each of those prospects was the foundation of talent that they were starting from. What I don’t have access too is their attitude and approach to their game. Team development has worked incredibly well for each of them, and they’ve all rightfully showed they belong in the league.
This brings me to my current list at #25 for the Lakers.
My latest list as of May 8 includes:
Cam Carr
Josh Jefferson
Henri Veesaar
Amari Allen
Zuby Ejiofor
Isaiah Evans
Juke Harris
Tarris Reed Jr.
Billy Richmond
Rueben Chinyelu
Bruce Thornton
Richie Saunders
Unlike most drafts that usually have around 15-1st round type prospects that seem the most likely to comfortably make it to a second contract, this current class had roughly 35(!) if everyone declared, and now that’s likely right at 25. Teams have different goals, take different risks, and may have strengths in player development or medical staffs where they draft guys that lean to those strengths, since they have higher perceived upside.
What I originally wanted for the Lakers was the chance to draft Motiejus Krivas, who I felt was the best combination of best player available and NBA readiness, but it seems he’s going back to Arizona. I don’t blame him though, since his NIL offer is probably going to be 2x (or more) what the Lakers can offer at the #25 pick.
My focus right now is the idea of drafting good basketball players, and not just for specific skill sets. I feel like that’s what happens when guys like Reed Sheppard are drafted over Stephon Castle. Who is the better basketball player? Castle. Who is better at shooting and forcing turnovers? Reed Sheppard. But it’s Castle that fills in the gaps of knowing what to do on the floor regardless of what position he plays on both ends of the floor, and so far, he’s proven to be the better basketball player.
I took a chance with Theiro last year in full knowledge that Raynaud was the better basketball player, but the idea of that level of athleticism at a position the league values was likely worth the risk.
Before I begin, please follow Ordinary Scout, High Upside Hoops, and No Ceilings. All three have been doing great draft work late in the season and cover prospects that may not even declare for the draft.
So, here’s who I think are the most NBA ready:
Joshua Jefferson - There’s a player I picked very early on as a Laker candidate, it’s Jefferson. Simply put, he has an NBA body and reads the floor. He has a sense of confidence with the basketball and just plays poised all the time. It helps he knows exactly where to be and what to anticipate on both ends of the floor. This kind of reading ability, a lot of NBA players don’t reach.
What makes him appealing? He’s just mobile enough to be switchable, but reads the game so well, he’ll likely be neutral defensively as a big wing and possible back up 5 as a rookie, which is an absolutely big deal.
Coach Redick may have Al Horford flashbacks, but Horford wasn’t this guy until the 2nd half his career. Jefferson has also spent a lot of time as a playmaker for Iowa St., both as a ball handler and short roll player. Admittedly I wish the touch was improved, especially with the left hand. I wish he was a better screen setter considering how big his frame actually is. But, his ability to read the floor, have active hands, understand team defensive concepts, be competent defensively when switched, and playmaking on the offensive end while being an average shooter to 3pt range, would go very far for the Lakers. Really, he should be ranked very highly on playoff caliber teams as just a plug and play 4 from the jump.
Also, since I think someone’s going to ask, Al Horford was listed 6’8” w/o shoes, 7’0.75” wingspan, but had the standing reach of a center at 8’11” at 246lbs. Something tells me, Joshua Jefferson won’t be too far off.
Zuby Ejiofor - Here’s another switchable, but undersized big. While Joshua Jefferson has a special ability to read the floor at both ends, which is absolutely NBA translatable, Zuby makes up for that with more athletic ability and slightly better touch in the painted area. Jefferson may be considered a mobile defender, while Ejiofor is quick and does a good job keeping up with smaller guards defensively when put on an island. He’s more of a traditional big in the sense that, he has a knack for attacking the boards at both ends of the floor, has good timing for weakside rotations, and is just a more natural finisher in the painted area than Jefferson.
Jefferson has the kind of playmaking that’s more intuitive and he sees the play developing ahead by a step. Ejiofor has the kind of playmaking that’s more instantaneous and reactionary. Jefferson may do a better job seeing the whole floor with his playmaking, while Ejiofor sees the next pass ahead. Those kinds of plays tend to be blown up by NBA level wingspans and coverages, but Zuby has enough comfort with his 1-2 dribble high post drives and athleticism to still be aggressive to the hoop if that option isn’t available.
Ideally, both Jefferson and Ejiofor are players that play next to a spacing big like Veesaar. In an odd way, either guy can become versions of an Aaron Gordon archetype. I think Jefferson can add strength and retain the same mobility, but isn’t quite the explosive athlete, while Zuby after four years at the NCAA level, still needs to add strength.
What makes these elbow area/high post smaller bigs stick in the league is the strength to carve out space in the paint despite being shorter than most traditional NBA bigs. Once they become great screeners, you get variations of this archetype on championship level teams, whether it’s Aaron Gordon, Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, Kevon Looney, Al Horford, Isaiah Hartenstein, etc. Once these guys become great screen setters and have a real post base, and are surrounded by all other spot up shooters or just one great movement shooter, all of their strengths are amplified. The 2-way ability becomes enough to be effective, and their decision-making becomes a real highlight.
Rueben Chinyelu - Steven Adams’s strength is otherworldly, but if there was a more mortal version of that kind of archetype, it’s Rueben Chinyelu. Rueben isn’t that kind of giant, but he has one advantage defensively that Steven Adams doesn’t have; the ability to mirror smaller point guards defensively along the perimeter, while still being a dominant rebounder. This also makes him great at hedging or trapping in screen situations and recovering to the roll man.
Shoes on, last year he was listed at 6’10-3/4”, with a 7’7-3.4” wingspan, a 9’3.5” standing reach at 251lbs. Keep in mind, that standing reach is on par with other centers like Joan Beringer and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (both guys I’d trade the #25 pick for, but I doubt the Timberwolves or Clippers would consider it).
While he has great length, he doesn’t carve out space in the way that Jefferson and Ejiofor do. It’s difficult to explain how guys just occupy space and just maintain it, while guys like Chinyelu are trying to optimize their wingspans and reach for rebounds, losing their footing in the process. This is a nitpick of his rebounding ability, for what it’s worth, since he averaged over 11 rebounds per game at just 24.5 minutes per game on 2.9 fouls.
So, why isn’t he ranked higher? He’s not seen as a defensive anchor in drop coverage. It seems like he’ll only excel in switch coverage. The shooting touch is average at best, and he’s not a 12th floor lob threat like Jaxson Hayes. His job is very simple on the offensive end; set screens and crash the glass. If he retains his athletic ability while still being able to add mass, then maybe he’ll do a better job as a verticality type of rim protector, rather than an intimidating shot blocker.
Wildcard
Billy Richmond - I posed a question on Twitter if Laker fans would be happy with a Gary Payton II archetype kind of player. The results seemed 70/30 against. But while I’m looking at Jefferson’s ability to read the floor, Zuby’s natural skill and archetype match, and Chinyelu’s directly translatable reactionary defensive and rebounding ability as basketball players, Billy Richmond is a high motor, transition guard that finds a way to be a positive player even without having the best 3pt. shot.
What stands out to me most in the playoffs is the ability for players to play at a higher level of speed and physicality while being able to dictate what they do best on the floor. Jefferson’s IQ translates to that playoff speed. Zuby’s well-roundedness as a big can translate to that speed. Chinyelu’s reaction speed translates to that speed.
Richmond has that speed and physicality as a guard, and he finds ways to be a positive player despite sub-19% usage.
Let’s do a quick stat breakdown.
According to Barttorvik (RIP Hoop Math), Richmond is:
Dunks: 38-42 dunks (90.5%)
Close 2: 127-173 (73.4%) - The percentage of DeAndre Ayton’s 1st 2 years in the league
Far 2: 28-41 (39.4%), fine percentage on far too low of a sample
FT%: 58-74 (78.4%)
Overall 2-point range: 63.5%
He scores like a lob threat center with that many shots at the rim. I don’t even think his shot form is refined, so when I see that FT% and far 2-point % on limited volume, I think it reflects his actual touch and hand dexterity.
But what also stands out to me, even if his assist to turnover ratio is less than 1:1, is how quickly he processes. It really stands out in the playmaking section of this video. There are quite a few times where his touch time from catch to pass is less than 1 second.
This specifically shows me the kind of the athlete he is. He isn’t just a physical athlete with quickness, speed, lateral ability, footwork, and verticality, but his mind is capable of playing that fast too.
This shows with his ability to create defensive turnovers and rim protection too.
Steal rate: 2.2%
Block rate: 3%
Somehow, that translates to 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes on 3.4 fouls.
So how does this fit with the Lakers? I can’t shake the idea of surrounding Luka Doncic with top tier athletes that can relieve him of a lot of defensive responsibility and give him the best transition players possible. Billy Richmond is a similar archetype of Gary Payton II, Alex Caruso, Tony Allen (anyone else remember this slam dunk champion changing his archetype into one of the best defenders?), or guard version Amen Thompson. These guys are highly reactive to the basketball, process the game at playoff speed, and all great athletes in their own right. Remember, this is the kind of player that gets passed up in the draft because he’s seen for what he can’t do (shoot) vs. what he can (defend, HC lob threat, transition), yet Gary Payton has a championship ring with the Warriors in a more complex offensive system based on off-ball play, and Alex Caruso has two championship rings based on scrambling defensive squads that get out in transition around 1 heliocentric playmaker.
I’m hoping, Richmond is a guy that can be one of the latter.
Admittedly, I’m not as excited about the draft class for the Lakers as I was earlier in the season. It’s arguably still a top heavy and the deepest draft class I’ve ever seen, but the ability to get an NBA ready player at an archetype the Lakers sorely needed went away with guys returning back to school. Now, it’s like choosing one or the other. Do the Lakers get an NBA ready type like Joshua Jefferson and the like? Or, do they go elsewhere and aim for a different archetype trying to establish a different team identity around Luka Doncic, build around transition ability, defense, speed, and reactions.
The idea of drafting for immediate impact has seemingly cost the Lakers before. Now, I want that heliocentric offense with a fortified defense built on size, speed, and transition play all over again.
I think guys like Theiro fit that mold. I think guys like Billy Richmond can fit that mold too.