Lakers... Condensed Board

If the Lakers made a big board, what would it look like?

The NBA draft is fast approaching, and draft day is July 29, 2021.

So why the focus on the championship banners? In the end, that’s the goal, and in some cases, that starts with the draft.

That being said, big boards have been posted on twitter, which is an exercise I find difficult to do. Every team has their own philosophy, or approach to the NBA draft. Every team is in a different position. Do teams change priorities with how they draft players? Do they value fit over talent? Do they value player-readiness over player upside?

All of that, I find very difficult to parse through.

Throughout the years, my “success rate” can be found, (S/O Lakersground), where I’ve raved about Randle, Ingram, was initially indecisive about Lonzo, had Jayson Tatum #3 (but I really thought LAL was going to pick him #2 considering he was such a Kobe fan), and nailed the second half of the 1st round in 2017 with wanting Josh Hart, Tony Bradley, and if the Lakers ventured, Thomas Bryant. Little did I know that they would trade to get Hart and Bryant, but essentially, all of those guys were picked off my list. I was late on Kyle Kuzma, and preferred Derrick White back then. But, at least my instructor at the time was aware of me following the draft and allowed me to quietly keep track during class. I felt like I nailed that one particular draft.

The following year, the Lakers didn’t take any of my guys. I had Melton ranked late lottery into the mid 1st round. Same for Thybulle, but I knew he wouldn’t last to the pick. Mitchell Robinson wasn’t my guy necessarily, but he was on my list. I’m happy to see Melton thriving with the Grizzlies.

Fast forward to the draft of 2019, where the Lakers had no picks. I didn’t think the Lakers would make a draft day move, but I had Talen Horton-Tucker as a mid-1st round pick. I thought he was playing an odd role at Iowa St. while showing ball handling craft and stellar ability to finish around the rim, along with some ability to make advanced reads and make passes cross court. The Lakers acquired the pick. He was available. They drafted him.

Commence celebration.

The only way I came to these conclusions was developing my own short list in regards to what I thought the Lakers would prioritize. As it turns out, it isn’t necessarily positional need. I think it’s focused primarily on talent, with an emphasis on three specific aspects (skills, athleticism, intangibles) over positional fit. I tend to skim over big boards and ignore mock drafts, because that doesn’t follow how I think the Lakers would actually draft.

That being said, I’m going to pretend to make a short board of players that I think the Lakers would focus on, ignoring agent associations, and starting with who I think are late lottery types:

Jaden Springer

Jalen Johnson

Roko Prkacin

Ziaire Williams

Chris Duarte

Trey Murphy III

Kessler Edwards

Josh Christopher

Miles McBride

So, what to do with that list? Well, the NBA draft is a funny thing, but assuming the list above is a player ranking, as guys get drafted, just cross them off the list. The top guy remaining, ultimately, is the one that should be picked. Sometimes lottery players fall to the first round. Sometimes projected mid-1st round types fall to the late 1st. It’s important to rank guys that are projected above and below the pick, just in case guys slip, or just in case the team trades down.

Coming up with the ranking altogether is the most difficult aspect to this. Everything has to be considered, not just what a player can do on the floor, but also off the floor. Should the Lakers prioritize a player that is more mature and earn minutes this season? Humbly speaking, I don’t think so. Prioritizing that affects the thought process and could lead to drafting a lesser talented player.

This is where simply drafting players by age, is an assumption that they’re NBA ready. Yet, there are younger players in the league that get playing time, and show that they’re more ready. Why? They have more advanced skillset by age.

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Why Do Certain Players Drop?

This is a good question and teams panic when they see a highly touted prospect fall precipitously down the draft. Did they miss a major injury? Can a team project their NBA position easily? What is the red flag? Did they miss something in the interview process to cause this? What happened on draft day to cause teams to have a poorer perception of the player?

Sometimes, teams change their minds last minute, so players that I feel are lottery types, specifically Jalen Johnson, Jaden Springer, and Roko Prkacin just might slip down to the Lakers pick.

Springer, didn’t play a traditional pick and roll point guard position at the University of Tennessee, and despite having outlier strength at any guard spot, appears to be more of a combo guard. This is where it helps to look for skill set, regardless of traditional positions. He’s not a hyper-twitchy, uber-quick, slasher in the mold of De’Aaron Fox, and isn’t a 6’7” initiator like other initiators in this draft, so he may drop to the Lakers pick. That doesn’t mean he still can’t be a stellar point-of-attack defender or a solid 3-point shooter that’s able to attack closeouts and pull up from mid-range. That two-way skillset goes for any team, but especially this Laker team.

Jalen Johnson is more of an Aaron Gordon archetype; a combo forward type that shows explosiveness to the rim, strength, and instances of rim protection and ability to force turnovers. The jumpshot isn’t exactly what I would call smooth, but his ball-handling and ability to read the floor, especially in an elbow or high-post position, says a lot about how he’s processing the game. He would be a great pick at #22 if he slipped down that far.

Roko Prkacin is another combo forward (notice why the similarity of projected positions here), and is basically the player that Laker fans wish Stanislav Medvedenko was. They have a similar shot, slightly slow loading from the perimeter, but the difference here is, Prkacin can grab-and-go off of a defensive rebound, attack closeouts well, shows touch in the painted area, and read the floor from both post areas and the perimeter alike to hit open players in the halfcourt. That’s the skillset that warrants lottery contention for this particular draft, but for whatever reason, he doesn’t have the hype behind his name despite the skillset being there.

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Getting Closer To the Laker Pick

Ziaire Williams is a Stanford forward, that upon first glance, would remind Laker fans of Brandon Ingram because of his pull up jumpshot from mid-range. His shooting percentage wasn’t great, but the Los Angeles County local had a ton of opportunities to self create, has a solid steal and block rate, and a 16.4% assist rate. He'll be considered more of a long term development player, but it’s hard to ignore wing-type players that can do things on both ends of the floor.

Chris Duarte and Trey Murphy III are both considered right at the Lakers’ range for the pick. Some may project Duarte earlier than the Laker pick, which is fine. It just means that another good player slips down to #22.

Trey Murphy III has been floating at the late 1st round area for awhile, so if the Lakers want that role player with a quick shot in the front court, he should be easily available.

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Which Leaves Us To Kessler Edwards, Josh Christopher, Miles McBride

Kessler, Josh, and Miles are late 1st round talents in any other draft. The tier of talent rough 20-35 or so, is roughly the same, so it makes it a lot tougher to discern the best talents available from the best organizational fits.

Kessler Edwards is a proven 38% arc shooter with good defensive fundamental techniques. He’s not projected as a shot creator, but 3-and-D types that can draw gravity are valuable on championship teams. At 6’8” with a 7’ wingspan, he looks stronger than his 205lb. weight indicates and is willing to play physically at both ends of the floor.

Josh Christopher embodies the skills that I love to see. He has tremendous balance and strength, which allows him to finish through contact. He’s very shifty, especially in creating his own shot, and has explosiveness to make some dynamic plays at both ends of the floor. Sure, there are questions with decision-making and shot selection, both of which go hand-in-hand, but the Los Angeles local has athleticism and skill that may be too tantalizing to pass up.

This leaves Miles McBride, a combo guard that I’ve rarely mentioned or spoken about. He’s a 2-way combo guard, but his offensive strength lies in his ability to hit pull-up jump-shots while being an absolute ball hawk on the defensive end.

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All of the players mentioned so far would be great Laker picks. Really. The key here is to add talent, and if the Lakers are fortunate enough to find a player that has a chance at playoff minutes without being too negative of an impact player on the floor, that would be an absolute steal. The idea of best player available at this range is tough, but the player I can’t shake of wishing the Lakers would draft, is Jaden Springer.