Kessler Edwards: 1st Round Consideration
Kessler Edwards has some big man skills for a wing player
Kessler Edwards fits the 3-and-D archetype. Given the combination of his size, physical play, and collegiate experience, he may be among the most ready to contribute at the NBA level from the jump.
Kessler strikes me as a player that was once a big, who later learned wing-like skills. This used to happen a lot, but fortunately, the most recent basketball players have focused more on guard skills regardless of size, at younger ages.
Photos courtesy of West Coast Conference, Moira Sweeney
One aspect of that is how he plays with physicality and interior presence. This is a great skill to keep, regardless of player size.
But, for whatever reason, he seems to be overlooked in mock drafts.
Size: Kessler Edwards is listed as a 6’7” player w/o shoes, 6’11.25 wingspan, 8’10” standing reach. He has 4.3% body fat at 203lbs, with a hand size of 8.5” x 8.25” length by width.
Notes: He has the size of a modern NBA wing, but a standing reach of a power forward. While he’s listed at 203lbs., he uses every bit of that strength on both ends of the floor.
Shooting Numbers: Link provided by Hoop Math.
60.6% True shooting percentage
27.2% of his Field goal attempts are at the rim
69.2% Finishing ability at the rim
58.7% Assisted shots at the rim
37.1% of his Field goal attempts are 2-point range
45.2% 2-point field goal shooting
33.9% Assisted shots in 2-point range
62.8% of his Field goal attempts are 3-point shots
37.8% 3-point field goal shooting
.314 free throws attempted for every field goal attempt
87.6% free throw shooting
Skillset: This is where I think his player projection gets lost. NBA.com has him listed as a power forward. The league would likely want to play him as a wing. Throughout his three year career at Pepperdine, he has averaged 39.5% shooting behind arc on four attempts per game. His two translatable NBA skills are that 3-point shooting ability and his interior defensive ability. His shot is very unusual, and doesn’t lead to a comfort or ease when going into pull up perimeter shooting, but considering his usage at the NCAA level (between 18-24 USG), he likely won’t be asked to be a shot creator at the next level.
Speaking of his shot, it looks like he “jumps first, shoots second,” rather than one continuous motion. Because of this shooting method, the energy generated from his legs gets lost. He has to regenerate that shooting energy again with his upper body, and almost all of his shots have low arc. Missed shots fall short. The ball never really breaks above the top of the backboard mid-flight, whether it’s a free throw or a 3-point shot.
(0:30)
This is what it looks like when the shot goes right. Kessler sees a smaller defender, uses a jab step and a dribble fake, and pulls up for the 3-point shot at the 0:44 mark.
During the scrimmage, he was rushing through his shots, and they fell short. But at least one of them gave an indication of a more in-line motion at the 1:06 mark. The 1:26 mark shows his more traditional form. But, he quickens the shot release at the 1:40 mark. Between those marks, enjoy the commercials, perhaps?
Yes, both shots are misses, but he’s going ahead of the development curve a bit. Rookies need to adjust to NBA contests, and quickening the shot can be a part of that, especially when a player isn’t as strong of a threat off the dribble.
Sometimes the shot sorts itself out by midseason. Sometimes, a player just needs a ton more space, and reverts back to the old form that brought them success. I think in Kessler’s case, it’ll help that it changes to more of a uniform motion starting with the base, adding more arc into the shot with the energy generated from the base, and quickening the release altogether.
So, why am I optimistic? While I don’t have as much confidence in his pull up ability, he showed an NBA level move, kept his balance, and took a soft shot from mid-range here. The way he planted his feet at 1:50, got himself square to the basket, and appeared to have more arc, even on a short range shot, indicates the ability is there. He’s not extending outward on his follow-through like he has shown with his 3-point shots.
Defensively, he understands team rotation and verticality. Simply put, he defends like a big.
Speaking of big man skills, this video is full of gems, like the way he wraps around a player in a post position to get a steal:
His approach to spin around the defender, get himself open to receive the ball, and keeps the defender at his base while giving his teammate a large post entry target:
The comfort he has while being in post position, keeping his defender behind him, sealing him off, and looking comfortable with this up and under, even if it’s a missed shot:
His ability to read the defense, and throw high-low passes where no one else can touch it; away from the defense, right next to the hoop:
He passed the ball like he was setting an example of how he’d want that post-entry pass.
There’s also the way he boxes out a player, seals him, wraps his arm around him, and draws a foul:
Then there’s his approach to offensive rebounding. I wish more NBA players had this kind of intent when approaching offensive boards. His assignment actually gets lower than him in order to plant his center of gravity, but Kessler could not be moved.
As long as his role is simplified, he can excel in the league. Not all of these big man skills don’t show up in the stat sheet, but these are NBA level fundamentals, the kind that transfer to the next level. We look for players that don’t just make 3-point shots and defend, but find ways to be positive impact players when they don’t get the ball. These detail skills, are absolutely it.
He may not be the quickest laterally, and get burned doing a hard closeout, but he will apply defensive back pressure at the rim. He will always attempt to make a play, even the smallest ones. Those are the ones that count.
Other advanced numbers via Sports Reference:
11.7% Total Rebound Percentage
18.4% Defensive Rebound Rate
7.2% Assist Rate
1.6% Steal Rate
3.9% Block Rate
11.3% Turnover Rate
23.6% Usage Rate
Notes: This reads like an “ideal role player” stat line. He may not be a dominant rebounder, but he does hit the defensive glass. He’s not a playmaker, so he has a low assist rate, but he also has a very low 11.3% turnover rate, and it’s not just because he shoots every time. He moves the ball, goes side-to-side with his passing, and while he doesn’t create an immediate advantage as an offensive threat, he tries to find where the threat is and pass towards it.
The steal and block rates are great, and maybe even more surprising is he has had a block rate higher than Day’Ron Sharpe (starting center for North Carolina) during his prior year; Kessler 6.1% as a sophomore vs. 5.1% Sharpe as a freshman.
He’s a low usage player, hovering around 20% throughout his career at Pepperdine, and his true shooting percentage actually went up along with increased usage (to 23.6 last season), decreased 3-point rate, and decreased free throw rate. He was taking and making 2-point shots, with better overall shot selection.
Would like to see with NBA development:
I love that he does the detail work and plays physically at both ends of the floor. He plays within his limitations and that’ll help him carve out an NBA career.
Most rookie players need to adjust their jumpshot at the NBA level, whether it’s adjusting to the 3-point line, being more efficient with energy usage to play a longer 48 minute game, or add shot diversity.
In Edwards’s case, it’s taking the edge off at the release point, and letting the energy transfer from his base all the way to the release point, in nearly one motion. Hopefully, that energy transfer creates more arc, and his shots won’t go short when he’s trying to add NBA range.
He knows who he is, he’s had a ton of 3-point shot volume over Pepperdine, and his free throw percentages have jumped from 69.4% as a freshman, to 76.1% as a sophomore, to 87.6% during his recent junior year. It takes a lot of work to get that kind of shot improvement, and there’s no doubt he put the work in it.
Where does he fit?
He’s a 3-and-D player, almost in the mold of Danny Green, right down to the occasional blocked shot in the paint. The difference here is, Green was a 3rd year NBA player before his 3-point shooting was 43.6% with volume. If the Lakers are hoping for immediate impact with Edwards, the shot gravity has to be there, moreso than the accuracy. The other details, Edwards already does, and I’d argue that he plays bigger a lot bigger than his 203lb. weight indicates. That gives me the confidence of him being able to handle NBA physicality from the jump.
LeBron James is a cheat code by himself. Anthony Davis adds to the cheat code by adding a wealth of roster flexibility. Since LeBron is the lead initiator for the Lakers, it allows them the luxury of being able to play two wing players next to him. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope does this, and excels at chasing shooters defensively. Kessler would line up with taking on tertiary offensive options and possibly play small-ball 4 next to Anthony Davis. If LeBron and Anthony Davis play alongside three, 3-and-D players where one can defend a point of attack, one chases shooters, and one can handle the physicality of other power forwards, that’s essentially a closing lineup.
In the most optimistic outcome, he can handle that physicality and give both guys the space they need to operate in the paint. These kinds of wing players, the kind that play with physicality and have some big man skill to go with it, are rare, and lean into the position-less modern NBA lineups of today.