Just a few days ago, Jared Butler received some great news.
We’ve talked about shooters in prior posts, mostly guys like Chris Duarte, Trey Murphy III, and Kessler Edwards. Why not? After all, they’re all relatively wing-sized players with proven arc shooting numbers.
What we haven’t looked at are initiators that are dominant shooting threats. Having a back up initiator is a Laker “need” in terms of roster construction, but in this case, Jared Butler may be the best shooter of the group that can also run an offense.
Baylor had one of the best guard duos in the league. So good, in fact, that they both helped lead their team to a National Title. Guard play tends to rule NCAA tournaments, but in this unique case, Butler played more of an off-ball role for the Bears next to Davion Mitchell.
He excelled.
Size: Butler stands at 6’2.25” w/o shoes with a 6’4” wingspan and an 8’2.5” standing reach. He had 5.1% body fat at the draft combine, weighing 193lbs. and has a hand size of 8.5” x 8.25” length by width.
Notes: He’s standard NBA point guard size, and fortunately has a good standing reach measurement even with the 6’4” wingspan. In contrast, Donovan Mitchell had an 8’1” standing reach measurement despite having a 6’10” wingspan. Butler is an inch taller than Donovan.
Shooting Numbers: Link Provided By Hoop Math
61.5% True shooting percentage
24.2% of his Field goal attempts are at the rim
61.5% Finishing ability at the rim
30.4% Assisted shots at the rim
26.6% of his Field goal attempts are 2-point range
44% 2-point field goal shooting
18.2% Assisted shots in 2-point range
49.2% of his Field goal attempts are 3-point shots
41.6% 3-point field goal shooting
.242 free throws attempted for every field goal attempt
78% free throw shooting
Notes: Like Springer, he opts to pull up from midrange when he’s not shooting from behind the arc. Where a player like Springer likes to eat up space and initiate contact, Butler is more like Duarte, operating in an open space mid-range, usually out of PnR, and defaulting to the pull up mid-range jumper. His shooting from all other 2-point ranges is good, but doesn’t touch Duarte’s 52% shooting in the same ranges.
The Special
Skillset: Did I mention he can shoot? CJ Marchesani of The Stepien highlighted his shooting prowess with shot variation, contested and uncontested. Simply put, catch-and-shoot, pull-up jump shooting off the dribble, movement shooting, and shooting through a hand-off series are all proven to be efficient. But it’s one thing to say that in words, and it’s another to show it in video. One of the most important things in the modern NBA is having players that can draw defenses away through perimeter shooting gravity. One way to get that is catch-and-shoot shots with volume. Another way, is to be willing to punish defenses for going behind screens and knocking down arc shots off-the-dribble.
Here’s a simple screen, then rescreen for the open shot:
He takes this next shot as if it’s a layup. Zero hesitation.
Perhaps this can be considered a hand-off series, but pay attention to how tight the screen is, the position of the defender, and the same lack of hesitation.
The Sexy
Ah yes, I haven’t mentioned the ball-handling yet. Davion Mitchell split duty with Butler within a half-court set, but Jared still finds a way to flash elite level ball-handling ability to create space or split defenses. First, there’s a subtle hesitation move, then a crossover to attack the basket after the initial step advantage was lost. On the following play, Kansas defended the pick-and-roll way too high. Jared Butler did “the thing,” and had a change of direction on the big, 18’ away from the hoop. This drew the defense into the painted area and set up the open shot.
His comfort with ball-handling ties into his ability to create plays. Here, he runs a pick-and-roll, keeps McBride on his hip, and hits the roll man. Then on the following play, he rejects the screen and hits Matthew Mayer for lob on the baseline cut. The whole time, with that spacing, he’s attacking the backline defender. If you freeze the video at 4:35, you can actually see when it makes the read.
In fact, in the during the entire 2nd half, Butler ran the offense through a series of high pick-and-roll situations to help spur a comeback and put the game into overtime.
Back to ball-handling. Jab step off the dribble, crossover, crossover on the defender’s top foot:
One more example to show his deceleration. The drive starts with a crossover, drive right, hit the brakes, crossover again, reaccelerate drive left to the cup.
He’s one of the best ball-handlers in this draft, the kind that puts pressure on the rim constantly out of pick-and-roll situations, but still has the 3-point accuracy and gravity to draw defenses all the way to the perimeter.
Defense
Defensively, Jared Butler is great at forcing turnovers and defending players his size. Curiously enough, he does a really good job of being able to extend on catch-and-shoot shooters and block the shot. He doesn’t need a lot of pre-load time to leap. The next 8 (!) plays are good examples of that.
Butler, like other good defensive players, uses his feet first, chest second, and reach last.
Here’s Butler getting switched onto Miles McBride. He does a great job keeping up laterally and contesting the shot.
Here’s another example of Butler beating a player to the spot, using his chest to hold position, and gets beat on the spin move. Notice, he’s capable of this kind of defense over 20’ away from the hoop. I’d argue that his lateral quickness is special.
The next two plays show how he keeps up laterally, uses his chest near the painted area, and contests shots against Miles McBride.
It’s great that he plays physically along the perimeter and has the perimeter footspeed to keep up against some of the best NCAA guards in this draft. Teams are still likely to hunt him out on switches during the playoffs, but it’s possible, in the right lineup and team context, he can break even defensively in certain settings and his ability to force turnovers and contest shots make defensive mismatches far less detrimental. Sometimes he can be overeager to get the blocked shot or contest perimeter shots, but I’d rather take a guy that is willing to run out and contest every time.
Other advanced numbers via Sports Reference:
6.5% Total Rebound Percentage
11.4% Defensive Rebound Rate
27.9% Assist Rate
3.7% Steal Rate
1.3% Block Rate
16.9% Turnover Rate
27% Usage Rate
Notes: Butler is a better playmaker than his assist rate indicates, but for a player that was more of a secondary initiator, his turnover rate is still high. Some of that is due the ball handling, and some is due to some overshot passes. But as long as the assist rate is clearly 10% better than the turnover rate, he’s fine there.
For a small player, he has outlier steal rate and block rate. 5% “stocks” rate leans into his lateral quickness defensively and quick reactions to the ball. He contests jump-shots like a guard with a wingspan of 6’10”, not 6’4”.
Would like to see with NBA development:
Strength would help, but he’s not exactly “weak” at 194lbs as a 6’2”+ player. I would hope for slightly more defensive discipline in terms of contesting shots, but his foul rate is fine at 3.2 fouls per-40 minutes of play, and that’s been consistent over the previous three years at Butler. Hopefully, the level of shooting and confidence in playmaking transfers directly over, especially as a secondary guy that may even get less overall usage than he did at Baylor.
Where does he fit?
LeBron James has succeeded next to smaller guards that shoot threes, or in Kyrie’s case, smaller guards that can go and find their own shot in isolation. Butler may not exactly be that kind of outrageously dynamic scorer in isolation plays, but he can definitely find good shots out of pick-and-roll situations. His ability to use screens, change speeds, change directions, and have a killer 3-point shot off-the-dribble make him a lot more difficult to defend. His role may be more simplified in a lineup alongside LeBron James, but hitting open shots and attacking closeouts for pull-up midrange shots is well within his comfort zone.
I thought he was a late 1st-round pick last year, and kept help but shake the idea that he’s a mid 1st-round pick this season, only because his shooting accuracy in a variety of situations is so accurate, he shows good pick-and-roll competency, and has the necessary quickness, ball-handling, and shooting gravity to manipulate defenses and get the shot he wants. I never really see a bad shot from him. If the Lakers are lucky enough to find his skillset at #22, they’d be wise to select him.
Really enjoy your Lakers-centric scouting reports. It really helps to envision how these prospects’ skills and talent may translate over to the next level and how they may fit with the current Lakers core.
With that said, you recently put out a condensed board of how you think the Lakers would rank prospects around the #22 range — where would you rank Butler among Springer, Duarte, Prkacin, Murphy III, etc.?