The Lakers currently have the 17th pick and 47th pick, but there are rumors on twitter about them trading with the Pacers for the 26th and/or 29th pick.
Either way, it works for me, as a lot of players I have around the 17th pick, are consistently mocked in the late 1st round anyway.
This post is a continuation of the General Thoughts of 1st Round Picks post.
#31 - Jalen Slawson - I have written about Slawson before, and unfortunately he didn’t appear to play great in the combine setting. I think it just comes down to him excelling at doing big-man things (high post play, screening, rim protection), but he happens to be more wing-sized. The leads to him playing power forward in the future, and I’m confident he’s a physical player on both ends of the floor with at least some ability to shoot 3-pointers. I don’t expect his 39.4% on nearly 3 attempts to directly translate, nor do I expect the 50% free throw rate to directly transfer. But, in my mind, he does all of the little things, and I keep thinking of Larry Nance Jr. every time I watch him play.
#32 - Amari Bailey - Amari is another guard that I think is a first round ranked player. He’s a high motor point of attack defender, is clever fighting through screens, and has an unusually strong post base for his given size. He has a standing reach of 8’7.5” with a wingspan of 6’7”, which leads me to believe he has a long torso and/or long legs. That’ll help him gain leverage against bigger players that try to post him up. He has a foundational three-level skill set that may lead to future point guard duty, but his vision of the court needs to expand to the full width. He’s a much more aggressive scorer than expected.
#33 - Jordan Walsh - Jordan is a high motor defensive forward between the 4/3 slots and is proactive making winning plays. At the high school level, he had reps initiating the offense, but that has mostly just translated to ball-handling and transition level passing. Unfortunately, I think his hands make him prone to strips when he attacks, and some inconsistent shooting behind the arc. At 6’6”, 7’2” wingspan, and 8’11” standing reach, he’s a highly capable defender with versatility to defend multiple positions with the reach of a center.
#34 - Andre Jackson Jr. - He can’t shoot. He can think. When I watch him play, I think of Lonzo Ball’s level of processing and passing. It’s instantaneous. His idea of gravity is constant movement, and when he’s dribbling the basketball, he never sits still in order to keep defensive eyes on him. In the end, he can read both ends of the floor at a high level, is capable of winning plays, and just needs a shot revamp. If there was a 3/4 Alex Caruso that couldn’t shoot (yet), wouldn’t you take a chance on him?
I would, even in the first round.
#35 - GG Jackson Jr. - All of the wing isolation moves without the efficiency or wins to back it up. It’s as if his motor only turns on when he receives the basketball. In this sense, he’s the complete opposite of Andre Jackson Jr. If a team is willing to take a chance on his development, he could really turn into one of the most dangerous scorers in the league. I just think, the league is so loaded with scorers and playmakers of higher usage, that he’d have to earn other ways to get usage and playing time before he gets the ball, and that part, I haven’t seen.
James Nnaji - All of the physical tools and motor that would remind of a player like Andre Drummond, without the total discipline on both ends of the floor. Screen setting, consistent box-outs, and foul trouble are things to work on; but with tools so intriguing, he’s worth the risk.
Mouhamed Gueye - 6’10”+, 7.2.5”+ wingpsan, 9’2.5” standing reach. Basically, the length of a higher end center, perimeter moves of a wing, and has a foundation of triple threat skills. Honestly, I don’t understand why he isn’t ranked about GG Jackson more often. He’s the classic size + movement ability + some perimeter skillset combination that usually has teams intrigued, even if the 3-point shooting isn’t quite 30%. Late bloomer.
Bilal Coulibaly - While I’m watching multiple draft videos rank him mid-1st to lottery, his two strengths are similar to Ruben Patterson; high pressure physical defense and uncontested offensive rebounding. A lot has been made of his production, recent ball-handling, and passing development, but unfortunately, his current level of competition isn’t physical or strong. Guards absolutely do not box out, and he’s making simple plays that I don’t think will translate to the NBA right away. He’s an unusually good lateral mover while having long strides, and I think that’s the basis of his athletic upside, but I never really see the same jumpshot twice, even from the same spot, and he’s always open. In prior drafts, he’s the “late 1st round project, we can develop him” type.
Tristan Vukcevic - Nemanja Bjelica.
Seth Lundy - Showed out as a spot up shooter during the combine.
If you recall from my prior post, I’m not as optimistic about guard movement shooters translating, because I think NBA defenses force guys to contort. Seth Lundy, showed some degree of the movement shooting I’m referring to, but hit with accuracy. Yes, he has his feet under him, but he shoots with a high release point, leaning to one side or the other, or leaning forward, all with the appearance and shooting touch. He’s 6’4”+ with a 6’10”+ wingspan and an 8’8” standing reach, at 214 lbs. He’s basically some strength away from being legitimate NBA wing size.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. - There’s something to be said of projected role players that play as the top guy during their NCAA tenure. These guys tend to be the leaders of the team, the glue guys, the consumate role players that every team needs. This is where Jaquez Jr. makes sense at 47. Upon first glance, he may be frowned upon as a prospect because he’s a tenured NCAA player, projected wing with no real position, and only shot 33% on average through four years at UCLA. Meanwhile, I’m looking at a player that isn’t projected to be a shot creator, but had back-to-back years of over 40% of his total field goal attempts at the rim, roughly 60% at the rim, and 40% for all other 2-point ranges, and solid mid-70% free throw shooting. He’s great at all of the non-typical shots; when stars are taking shots at the rim on drives while role players are spotting up behind the arc, he’s a threat at the in-between.
While his general NCAA stats don’t shine in terms of true shooting (56% is some elixir percentage), he rebounds at a solid rate, he passes at a solid rate, has flashes of being a defensive playmaker with 2%+ block rate and 2%+ steal rate, on a turnover rate that has floated around 10% or less for the past 3 years, on increased usage. This reads, like a smart decision-maker; a role player that knows how to read how the offense is going and will help optimize possessions outside of just 3-point shooting; 27.9% USG on 9.9% TO rate is absurd.
If I were to model a player for him to emulate, it’s Rick Fox. Rick was also one of the leaders of his UNC team before letting go of some shot creation abilities. Instead, he became a physical defender, spot up player, and a guy that just made limited mistakes.
Sound familiar?
Of this list of 10 players, almost all of them I would consider 1st round prospects of prior drafts. Recent drafts have just gotten deeper, and it also helps explain why I think picks 15-45 are roughly the same tier of talent, if not, just a half to full tier apart in terms of skill.
There will be multiple chances for Lakers to strike for rotations players at a minimum, and starters or better in the most optimistic scenario. There are even more prospects to cover, but through 40 players, most of whom I have as first round ranked players, the Lakers will have two free shots to improve the roster.