General Thoughts About Consensus 1st Round And 2nd Round Picks
Chaos Is A Ladder, Players I Like, And Vince Williams Jr.
The 2022 NBA draft has been more challenging than previous years in terms of evaluation, and it seems that every year it just gets a bit harder. One can’t always rely on Sports Reference or Barttorvik to narrow a list down, and even the guys that don’t have the greatest numbers, actually show competent skills in certain departments. It’s a slightly weirder world, when we’re looking at 40% to 55% finishers at the rim (I see you Max Christie at just under 48%) and still having them project as late 1st to early 2nd round picks.
But, like every draft, there are just certain players that stick out to me. This upcoming draft is going to be chaotic and good players will slip. They slip every year. Chaos is a ladder, and there’s a slim chance that the Lakers can nab a 1st round talent, with a 2nd round pick, or even an undrafted player.
Brace yourselves and set aside some time. This is going to be a long one, and it’ll be worth watching the included videos. Please support the YouTube creators that have covered the draft. They do incredible work.
Lottery
Paolo Banchero - If I had the #1 pick, I’m choosing Banchero. If there were a subdivision of tiers within the top tier of talent, Paolo would stand at #1. Why? My favorite archetype is jumbo initiators. While Paolo isn’t an outright point guard, he’s a big that learned all of the initiating skills within the past several years, got plenty of reps at the tournament level and at Duke, and became a 6’10” 250lb., three-level shooter and playmaker with some advanced footwork and ball-handling ability, as if he were a guard. Isn’t this exactly what we’re all looking for? The last player that came close to that description, admittedly with a ton more skill refinement, is Luka Doncic. This dude is getting 40+ points a game in the playoffs against elite defenders, even leaving Kawhi Leonard and Paul George looking a bit helpless.
“But, he can’t play defense.” “But he looks slow.” In Paolo’s case, it’s the same criticisms. It’s clear to me that both of these guys have a skillset so refined, that it doesn’t matter. You can build a team around them. They have counters for counters on offense, have great size for their projected NBA positions, and have answers to different defensive tactics being thrown at them.
If Twitter was around in the 1970s, I can imagine the discourse being similar. “Magic Johnson can’t defend.” Yeah, but he can win games. So can Luka. And, in the future, so can Paolo.
Jaden Ivey - Sometimes, you just have to look as to what a player does best. Sometimes, there’s a certain skill so good, and you know that at the NBA level, there aren’t a ton of guys that can do the same. Well, here’s Jaden Ivey. Okay fine, he’s not a pure point guard in the way that Ja Morant was in terms of passing, decisive decision-making, and vision. No, he’s not the full blast motor defender at guard.
The guy just dunks. He dunks in transition. He dunks in semi-transition. He dunks in the half-court. He dunks donuts in coffee. Okay, that may sound like a description of Shaq’s career, but he’s A GUARD. He can actually handle the ball a bit, and frankly, I haven’t seen acceleration to the hoop in such a limited space since a certain guy had his logo put on shoes.
I currently have him ranked #4 on my big board. I am an insecure basketball evaluator. Where Paolo is subjectively very good to excellent in a wide variety of skills (and these are the skills that are easy to read and make long NBA careers), Ivey is dominant at the one NBA skill that all offensively dominant NBA players have had, while being more down to earth in terms of shooting and passing. But hey, Kobe, McGrady, Jordan, Wade, and other shooting guards needed some time in the NBA to refine their shooting range and passing ability. You know what else they could do?
Edge Lottery
Jalen Williams - It was just two months ago where he was mocked on a ton of websites as a mid 2nd round pick. I watched the tape and saw a wing-sized player running an offense, with high-level, three-level shooting.
Yeah, that’s at least edge lottery for me, if not higher. I just find it especially weird when his draft spot jumped by 20 to 30 players *after* the combine. Really? I know I have insecurities about the draft too, but I don’t need someone to prove they have one of the longest wingspans for a wing (7.2.25”) or a mid 30” vert to prove athleticism.
Like Luka and Paolo, he’s a big initiator. He’s just not roughly 6’10”.
MarJon Beauchamp - I can see it now. “Hey Mike, who would be a good guy for the Lakers?” Well, so far, all of the guys I’ve listed. MarJon isn’t a guy who runs an offense, but he’s the archetype of what I think all Laker fans want; a 3-and-D type of prospect with wing-size and proven athleticism, someone that looks the NBA part.
There’s mild hope that he slips into the late 1st round. There are small quirks to sort out in his game in terms of help defense and trying to be too much of a playmaker. I’m not even that concerned about the 30% 3-point shooting. He can defend wings 1v1 and is a capable shooter and a powerful finisher. The Lakers need a guy like that.
I’ll have him ranked higher on my board than most, and I admit that’s a lean to what I think the Lakers would want as well. He’s had growth in his game, matured some skills quickly with the G-League Ignite, and I like Washington hoopers.
The Mid 1st Round
Nikola Jovic - Let’s think back to a time when the Lakers played the Orlando Magic in the Finals. Does anyone remember who their best initiator was? It wasn’t Jameer Nelson. It was, Hidayet Turkoglu.
Now, international footage was REALLY tough to get back then, but I remember he started his career in Sacramento as a solid shooter, and just refined the ball-handling and passing to run an offense. How did he get the keys? Simple. He was a three-level shooter that could hit the roll man in pick-and-roll. It took a while to get there, but he got there.
This, is my most optimistic outcome for Nikola Jovic. Like Magic, or Steph, or Luka, we’re not thinking about any other shortcomings, but rather, how well they can do the important things, like three level shooting. Jovic just turned 19 a couple of weeks ago.
This is what he does at roughly 6’10”.
I’m a big fan of guys that tall doing hesitation dribbles into step-backs for three.
Okay wait, why isn’t he lottery again?
Ousmane Dieng - If you’ve been listening to me during this last podcast cycle, I’ve stated multiple times that I wish the Lakers had a pick in the mid-1st round. This is just a wing draft. If Jovic wasn’t enough to get lottery attention, neither was Dieng, yet, both of them are roughly 6’10”, with three-level shooting, ball-handling ability, and some passing chops.
What are we even doing here? If it were the early 2000’s in terms of player evaluation, archetypes like Jovic and Dieng would be near the top of the lottery and Ivey would go #1 because there was more of an emphasis on outright athleticism during those years.
Keep in mind, we’ve gone from the lottery to mid-1st round, and I’ve listed three (roughly 6’10”) wings with triple threat ability in Dieng, Jovic, and Banchero and one 6’5” wing with 7’2” arms that runs an offense and is arguably the best three-level shooter in comparison to the aforementioned players.
Yeah. It’s a wing-heavy draft.
The Other Jumbo Initiators
There are two guards that are a bit more defensive oriented, but not the aggressive scorers that they could possibly be. They seem to be the types that are happy to organize an offense, rather than go out for 30 points on their own.
They are Dyson Daniels and Dalen Terry.
Laker fans are used to having big guards on championship teams, even as role players. We’ve seen Ron Harper and Brian Shaw have critical roles. Dyson Daniels and Dalen Terry lean into the archetype of big guards that are more comfortable next to higher usage playmaking wings.
Evaluators can often say a player needs a three-point shot, or some more advanced ball-handling. Sometimes guys simply aren’t aggressive scorers, even if they had that kind of ability. It’s within their basketball personality to facilitate rather than score. This is a good thing! There are often too many guys looking for their own shots and playing outside of the context of their game. These guys know who they are, are positive contributors within their skills, and have a possibility to expand upon it.
The 2nd Rounders And Vince Williams Jr.
I’ve spoken about Keon Ellis, Julian Champagnie, Trevion Williams, Jabari Walker, and David Roddy this season. I took a lot of guesswork out of who appeals to me as a basketball player, not just in terms of Laker fits, but looking for their unique strengths that lead to long NBA careers. Keon is a two-way guard. Julian is a two-way wing. Trevion Williams has special passing ability. Jabari has special defensive ability with flashes of offensive skill. David Roddy is a unique three-level scoring threat with rebounding motor and defensive instinct.
I do think these guys have NBA talent.
I also think Vince Williams Jr. has NBA talent.
If I said there was a 6’5.5” wing with 7’ arms that was a competent 3-point shooter, an underrated passer, and team defender, you’d like him for the Lakers right?
I would.
Well, here’s that guy. I haven’t raved about him enough and every mock draft I read or community mock draft I enter, he’s near the bottom of the 2nd round to UDFA.
Why? I have a couple of hunches.
His turnover rate is bad. Like really bad. Like, I’m not sure if he’s an NBA player bad. It’s 3.5 turnovers per-40 minutes but as a role player bad. But we need to keep in mind that standout players get thrown into greater offensive responsibility, and maybe he’s just not that guy. Okay fine. But in a world where Keegan Murray and Adrian Griffin Jr. have turnover rates of 5.7% and 7.2% respectively, Williams Jr. has a turnover rate averages to 20% over all four years at VCU, and he doesn’t have high 20% usage either.
If you ignore the stats and watch the tape, you may notice two things: he’s not the most physical player for his size, and he dribbles high. You know the HBO series Showtime where Jerry West’s character refers to point guards needing to be short, so the dribble is shorter? He might have a point here.
Okay. Fine. Welcome to the world of 2nd round picks, where we hope players that are put in positions to succeed, actually do succeed at the NBA level because they have other skills that are NBA competent.
Physicality is a tough hump to get over, and the only physicality drills I’ve seen are where the coaches use pads and strike the shoulders and forearms while a player is dribbling forward, or provide resistance around the rim when players are attacking the hoop. I find this is an incredibly helpful drill, but unfortunately those are only two aspects to improving it. Laker fans watched Brandon Ingram get over that physicality hump, which led to his first “leap” year in terms of development, and then a second leap in development as a Pelican.
How do you make players more physical as a defender without getting into foul trouble? How do make players more physical, by initiating contact on both ends of the floor? How do you make players make defensive recognition early and box out? These are tough questions. These aren’t easy humps to get over. He’s a bit foul prone as a wing player with an average 3.6 fouls per 40 minutes.
There’s reason for optimism though. He meets my criteria for three-level shooting. He has solid three point shooting, takes good looks (for him) with general 2-point shooting, kept up the free throw percentage while having a solid free throw rate.
Defensively, he’s an off-ball defender, and he’s known as that because he blocks shots on help defense and forces turnovers. There aren’t a ton of guards that average 1.5 steals and 1 block per game in just over 30 minutes of play. Personally, I think it’s his way of trying to avoid fouls. You know how players can get a bit jumpy and just need to stay grounded and get vertical? I think there’s a bit of that. But he does have some defensive instinct out there!
The Lakers would need him to be a 3-and-D role player. I wish he offered more resistance defensively in 1v1 matchups. But finding a player that’s wing-sized, hovered around 40% behind the arc for the past two seasons, has an assist rate nearly 20% last season, and a free throw rate of .442 the past four seasons combined, might be too tough to pass up on.
Personally, I see a guy that looks comfortable pushing in transition, has the frame to withstand contact, and a guy that’s particularly good at passing off the dribble while on the move. He has really good timing. I referred to jumbo initiators earlier in this post and well, this is what that looks like in the 2nd round to undrafted area.
If the Lakers simplify his role, keep him as an arc shooter that can shoot from all corners in catch-and-shoot situations, draw some free throws, see the full width of the court and be able to pass off-the-dribble, and do anything defensively, then they won this pick.
Who Will the Lakers Pick?
I have no idea. Since 2014, it feels like I have a near 50% hit rate with how the picks go. Starting from 2014, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Tony Bradley, then trading Tony Bradley for other guys I liked in Josh Hart and Thomas Bryant, D’Angelo Russell (after learning about his second workout), and then more recently calling out Talen Horton-Tucker and Austin Reaves were incredible calls. People that have known me on the LakersGround message board and followed me through twitter are my witnesses.
They’ve also seen me call out Tatum at #2 to wanting De’Anthony Melton, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Alize Johnson in 2018.
But, take a look at the draft history. If picks weren’t traded, there’s a history of good players picked! Isaiah Jackson isn’t traditionally a guy I would emphasize. Jaden McDaniels would be awesome for the Lakers now. So would DeAndre Hunter (I was a Darius Garland guy, even over Culver and Hunter).
So, going by hit rate, there’s a strong possibility of a couple things happening. The Lakers may not be able to get that 2nd rounder. The Lakers may not acquire a guy I personally like or haven’t evaluated as thoroughly.
If we’re playing the percentages, maybe this isn’t the year, but we’ll see. The important thing is to create a draft philosophy, learn something new every year, stick to those draft principles, and shoot your shot.
Well, for this season, this is my shot.