General Thoughts About Consensus 1st and 2nd Round Picks
Some of the guys I haven't really talked about
There are upsides and downsides draft-wise, in regards to championship rosters. Most of the time, championship teams don’t rely on young players for extended amounts of playing time throughout the season. Some guys need playing time for development, but need to sort through their mistakes in order to become better players. Some guys, just may not find the opportunity on the floor, due to positional alignment of the roster. There are upsides and downsides draft-wise in regards to championship rosters.
In the most ideal cases, championship teams would take swings on perceived “high-upside” picks and optimize their development with highly reputable development staffs, some playing time in the G-league, and playing time during the regular season, situation permitting. But, for this particular Laker roster, especially under the rules of the modern CBA, that is more of a luxury.
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There are players that I like that have this kind of tremendous upside, that don’t always align to the direction of the team. I wish some of them were Laker draft pick-types. I wish some of them would get better opportunities elsewhere, in order to improve and create a long term NBA career.
All of that being said, this is a particularly unpredictable draft. There are too many teams with multiple picks. Those are the teams that can take risks are big upside guys for longer term development.
This particular draft class gets a lot more muddy in terms of gauging talent from picks 5-20, and then 20-40 or so. Those two tiers are a lot closer in talent than expected. Just take a look at this incredible work. People really created big boards and combined the information, and revealed the variance between the picks. Look how much the variance increases around pick 10, then again at 44.
So, I’ll talk about guys I like, and some guys that I would like, if they developed at least one particular skill really well.
Let’s start with first round types:
Scottie Barnes - He just has a ton of energy, played point guard for Florida State. I wish he was either more explosive as a player, or had the shooting ability to create gravity. He has joy when he plays, the kind that teams and organizations would love to see on the floor.
Keon Johnson - He’s an absolutely unreal athlete. Like Springer, he has a heavy reliance on his midrange game. Unfortunately, I don’t know his scoring diversity outside of that really. Outside of that, he’s got a great free throw rate, flashes the ability to make simple passes and turn them into offensive advantage, in line with block and steal rates. He’s the kind of player I would have loved years ago, but for the the Lakers, it’s tough to see a specific path to immediate contribution.
Josh Giddey - Now here’s a guy that doesn’t look like a typical NBA player. He’s someone that’s around 6’8” or so, knows how to handle and pass the ball, and only just improved his shooting recently. It took me awhile to come around to him, but it’s too tough to ignore his advantage passing at any given moment. Most guys need to create the advantage first, and then pass to the open man. He’s capable of that, but more importantly, sees where the defense has a weak link, in transition or in the half-court, without creating the advantage and throws the zip pass there. That kind of feel is just hard to find.
Usman Garuba - Garuba may actually slip to the Lakers pick, and he is highly touted as a defensive player. It’s so rare to find a big that is so comfortable switching defensively, or meeting a pick-and-roll at the level of the screen and able to recover and protect the rim. He has the kind of footwork, strength, and intuitive feel defensive ability that seems impossible to find. Unfortunately his aggression on defense, isn’t as positive on the offensive end, where he’s not really a lob target, doesn’t have a variety of post moves, or a consistent enough 3-point shot. Offensively, he’s there for the garbage points, but even at Real Madrid, defenses don’t always run out to contest his 3-point shots.
James Bouknight - James is a player that I think should be aligned more to where the Lakers are drafting, instead of the lottery selection. He’s quite an explosive athlete attacking the rim, and has good burst, but I lean to him as a guy that ends up like a shot-creating 6th man type, rather than a third option perimeter player that knocks down open shots. The shot selection reflects that, and admittedly, he carried a ton of offensive burden at UConn with 31.6% usage. I can’t foresee him getting that kind of usage at the next level, unless he is that sixth man type that’s relied on to score. I am willing to bet there’s an NBA team that’s willing to bank on his shot creation, and develop his passing down the line.
JT Thor - Whew, he is a highlight reel, and another guy I would have loved to draft years ago. He’s a long, wiry, lob threat that has range out to the 3-point line and is able to get two dribbles down from the 3-point line to the rim. He’s a bit of a project, and I just don’t trust any other ancillary skills outside of that. Outside of shooting, he looked like one of the most physically dominant players at the NCAA level, just able to erase any kind of mistakes or make guys look good with his size, wingspan, and athletic ability.
Tre Mann - This I would expect to be a bit controversial. After all, he was basically the entire offensive system for Florida and knows how to shoot. I find that he tends to play with the same pace in pick-and-roll, opts for the same step-back jumpshot, and I’m unsure of his physicality next level. It’s just so hard to hang defensively at his size, that it takes some outlier skills at both ends of the floor to compensate.
Corey Kispert - What if Corey Kispert fell onto the Lakers’s pick at #22? There’s definitely a temptation there, especially with his tremendous ability in catch-and-shoot situations. After all, he shot 44% for the past two seasons. But what else does he do? He makes simple decisions on offense, but isn’t exactly a guy that I could foresee handling tough wing matchups defensively, or at least force turnovers and alter shots in a team defensive setting. Simply put, there are other guys that shoot near that kind of 3-point percentage, near that kind of shot volume as well, but have more ancillary skills that I think the Laker team is looking for.
Cameron Thomas - Here’s another tough one. After all, he’s a stellar isolation wing player, right? As much as I like his ability to create his own shots, with more size than Tre Mann, I could at least trust Tre to organize an offense and make the passes to open teammates for shots. I wish I could just say he just needed to put more effort defensively, but at the NBA level, effort has to be connected with technique. Bouknight may be more of a ball-handling sixth man, but Thomas operates really well in short spaces to create his own shot, demonstrating range to 25’ or so. It wouldn’t surprise me if his succeeded in that role at all.
Quentin Grimes - Grimes has come a long way since his days at Kansas, and looked like a bonafide NBA player during the draft combines. He has a compact jumpshot that fits in a phone booth and carries the size and strength on defense. But if he gets ran off the line, things don’t look so great. He’s a three-year college player, and at all other 2-point ranges outside of the rim, he shot 28.6%. There’s room for him to improve in terms of getting space and creating a comfortable shot within that given area, but I’d would have expected that with a tenured NCAA player. That being said, if he ends up a 3-point specialist in catch-and-shoot situations and is able to hold up defensively in the playoffs, that would not surprise me at all.
Vrenz Bleijenbergh - He was a player I was initially high on. After all, who could turn down a player that’s nearly 6’10” with ball-handling ability and shot variation between different playtypes? While he’s still relatively young, I haven’t seen the puzzle completed in terms of his playmaking. When he creates out of pick-and-roll, they are home run plays and look fantastic. When a turnover is done through passing, it gives the impression that it was the pass that the playbook dictated, rather than observing the defense being able to make a play on it. He may be caught in the middle of his playmaking development, as someone that needs to force the issues to see what works for him and what doesn’t, but unfortunately that’s too risky for the Laker pick at #22.
Jason Preston - I just wanted to take some time for one of my favorite players in this draft. He’s come such a long way in terms of development, and even when he played for a small school, his basketball feel was evident during the draft combine. I know that I don’t do that much in terms of player comparisons, but when I watch him, I can’t help but shake the idea of seeing Mark Jackson. Does that kind of player stick in the NBA? Yeah, I think so. I think the NBA is learning to guys that are more physically dominant overall and then show their skills complementary to that. He’s a 6’3” guard with a 6’8”+ wingspan and currently around 180lbs. I think there’s room for him to add more strength still, without hindering his athleticism. All he has to do is to get to his spots on the floor and let the vision and passing ability tear down the defense. It would be a bonus if he was more of a pull-up jumpshot threat, but he’s the kind of guy that would excel next to lob threats and more usage-oriented wings.
Sandro Mamukelashvili - Here’s a player that I just feel is an NBA guy, but only because he shows guard skills in a power forward frame. He’s capable of handling the basketball, attacking from the elbows, showing 3-point range, and kicking out to the open teammate. He’s 22, so some perceive that there are limitations to his upside, but if he adds strength to play at his operating spots on the floor, he’ll be a perfectly fine rotation player next level.
Juhann Begarin - Then lastly, there’s always at least one project player that shows one dramatic improvement year. Here’s an 18 year old player, listed at 6’5” with a 7’ wingspan and a standing reach of a big wing. He’s developed a lot in the past year especially in terms of shooting and pick and roll play. He’s got a foundation to build off of in terms of ball-handling, passing, and shooting. More refinement would allow him to become more of an advantage creator, and not just a play finisher. However, if he turns himself into that NBA 3-and-D archetype anyway, as just an average shooter, he can absolutely make the league. Guys with his size, strength, length, and athletic ability don’t come often, especially ones that contribute on both ends of the floor.
Overall, this was a very fun draft to cover. In prior years, I would have researched every draft eligible player and their basketball talents, but a shortened season never helps.
Hopefully, all these guys find a way to make basketball a career path in one way or another. As I’ve mentioned before, I like seeing young players succeed.
If people have any more questions, please make player requests in the comments, or find me @Canyondriver.