Chris Duarte: A Clear Prospect
Chris Duarte is a seamless fit for the Laker roster
Throughout a draft process, I look for a player that I refer to as a baseline. There’s always a player out there that, at bare minimum, has the requisite skill level and athleticism that make for a good prospect within a certain draft range.
This year, that player for me is Chris Duarte.
Photo from Basketball News article on Chris Duarte
There is a ton of skills that Chris Duarte displays, and it’s unfortunate that he’s projected as a late first round pick due to age.
Sometimes, players are just late bloomers.
But He’s An Older Player
There’s plenty of footage about Chris Duarte. He had an outlier shooting year for the University of Oregon. He recently turned age 24. His stats profile out of a 18-21 year old read like a lottery pick, but does the age deter me? Not really. Sometimes people confuse youth alone as upside, when it’s the skillset by age that matters.
So, what are you looking for in terms of skillset? I refer to that in my philosophy piece, but that changes by player position.
Shooting guard is a traditional position label, but the modern NBA sees small forwards and shooting guards as players of similar skill sets. They are wing players, and wing players tend to have the most versatile skill set. Some wing players are natural playmakers. Some are natural scorers. Some scale up or down on the defensive end. Wing players that aren’t considered star players or All-Stars have shown this skill set as role players. Matisse Thybulle will guard anyone 1 through 4, and at least be willing to shoot behind the arc. Robert Covington will defend 2 through 5 and play high level team defense while being a legitimate 3-point threat. It’s a valuable position, and one I consider the second most important position in the league, next to a primary initiator.
Chris Duarte shows the scoring ability, playmaking ability, and the defensive ability to play at the NBA level. At the 22nd pick, that can be considered a steal pick. After all, how important is Cameron Johnson for the Phoenix Suns during this current playoffs? Cameron Johnson is age 24 as well, and his job is to hit open shots and be a good team defender. That’s enough to hit double figures in scoring and competently play 20 minutes or so at the playoff level.
That absolutely matters, especially for a team in a championship window like the Lakers.
What About Upside?
What about it? Out of 60 NBA draft picks and a couple of undrafted free agents, roughly 20-25 players make it to their second contract and look like they belong in the league. The NBA level is just that tough, and every year, there are at least 20-25 incoming players that are coming in to replace players and fill up roster spaces.
So, what’s a realistic expectation for a late 1st round pick? Is it fair to expect a superstar or All-Star player? No. It’s an absolute home run when players hit for NBA teams. Tony Parker was a late 1st rounder. Manu Ginobili was drafted at the end of the 2nd round. Both guys were absolutely critical in extending the Spurs’ championship window.
It’s a fair expectation to hit on a role player with a late 1st round pick. Someone that is just going to make the league, possibly get playoff minutes, and be a productive player is a huge win, even in the late 1st round. Championship teams operate on a high level on both ends of the floor, so it’s not just about a young player and his (or her) skill development, but also, finding a way to fit in within the pecking order of a championship team. Not everyone has the maturity to handle that kind of challenge. Personally, I like players that that have drastically improved their skill set, regardless of age. Chris Duarte is one of those players.
Now, recall back to the philosophy piece where I mentioned, draft the best player available. It’s absolutely possible that Chris Duarte is the best player available for the Lakers. If I just watched the games and disregarded the age, where’s the skillset that needs the most improvement? I would worry if a player was a jack of all trades, but didn’t have an NBA level specialty skill. Chris Duarte has one. He’s a shooter.
Let’s look more into his game.
Size: Listed at 6’6”, likely with a wingspan of 6’7”, roughly 190 lbs. Unfortunately he didn’t test during the NBA combine.
Notes: Given his age, it would be nice if he was around 210lbs., which seems to be the average for an NBA level shooting guard. He may be in position to handle some added bulk more easily compared to younger players.
Shooting Numbers: Link provided by Hoop Math. (This is where it’s FUN)
63.3% True shooting percentage
29.9% of his Field goal attempts are at the rim
71.1% Finishing ability at the rim
40.6% Assisted shots at the rim (some indication of off-ball ability)
22.3% of his Field goal attempts are 2-point range
52.2% 2-point field goal shooting
17.1% Assisted shots in 2-point range
47.8% of his Field goal attempts are 3-point shots
42.4% 3-point field goal shooting
.262 free throws attempted for every field goal attempt
81% free throw shooting
Notes: Chris Duarte had an absolutely outlier year. He was a 71/52/42/81 shooter this season, which is absolutely outstanding. It would be considered great if there was a player that shot 65% at the rim, 40% from 2-point range, 40% behind the arc, and 80% at the free throw line, and he shot well above those markers.
While he had a phenomenal year, it indicates to me that he should have been in the NBA last year. I’m unsure if he’s able to replicate that shooting at the NBA level. NBA defensive contests are at a much higher level. There’s a possibility that his shot needs an adjustment in terms of NBA game speed, but we know he can absolutely shoot the basketball.
Skillset: He’s a shooter through and through, but what I like out of his entire season, is the number of pick and roll plays he participated in. His ball-handling level isn’t risky, and hence, doesn’t appear advanced, but he plays within his limits. He’s able to make simple 1st and 2nd option-type of reads out of pick and roll, but other reads don’t seem as intuitive. He is a read and react player, and it’s tough to become a more intuitive playmaker out of certain playtypes at a more advanced age than a typical prospect. However, unlike most guards and wings in this upcoming NBA draft, he is a 3-level scorer. He draws gravity to the 3-point line, gets top-locked, and cuts backdoor. He showed his ability to play off the ball. Next level, he may be expected to just stay at a corner and be ready to fire, but within the halfcourt, he finds ways to be available to the ball (underrated aspect of Kobe Bryant), and turn that into an advantage situation. Simply put, there’s a lot to like about his game. Being a plug-and-play player is a huge advantage in the league, and helps make the transition to the NBA level, more seamless.
Here is the kind of play he’s expected to make as a 3-and-D player, especially one that draws defensive attention to the 3-point line:
He receives the pass, sees the defense recovering late, and immediately attacks to the open spot on the floor on his left side. As soon as he hits the gap, his assignment is still recovering defensively. Chris gives him and up fake, and gets the And-1.
The next play shows a pick and roll situation that is particularly unique. He utilizes the screen going left, but Iowa’s defensive help (#10) is out of position really early. Freezing the video at 2:18 shows the big is in drop coverage, Duarte’s line of sight is looking right between the two defenders, and although #50 of Oregon is open, #10 of Iowa is there to contest the pass.
Now comes my favorite part. He changes direction on the dribble, not on the drop coverage big, but on the defensive pressure on his left side to prevent the turnover. Not only does he shorten the dribble and quicken the pace the dribble, but he crosses it over as well.
At the 2:19 mark, the roll man is covered by two players, the drop big and #22. He’s pressured by the defender on his backside and on his left. The spacing is poor, so it appears to look like a triple team. His line of sight does not look to the left side at all, but he sees his teammate open in the corner, and hits him for the corner shot. Assist.
This is where he shows his upside as a pick and roll creator, as well as his read-and-react ability instead of the intuitive read. The 2:19 mark also shows #50 wide open along with a passing lane open through a bounce pass.
Now, whether he’ll see this playtype at the NBA level is a different thing altogether, but a player’s upside is revealed in different ways. This isn’t the kind of upside where, “if he could just shoot, it would unlock a different level of offensive threat.” This is more along the lines of, he’s a 3-level threat, can operate at intermediate speeds, shows the ability to make initial reads out of a pick and roll playtype. Now, it’s about angles with the body and being able to see the full width of the floor, not just the short range pass.
Here at the 4:07 mark, Duarte is open at the corner and a big defender is recovering. Upon the catch, he still has about 6’ of space to get a corner 3-point shot off. Instead, he upfakes, and tries to do another read and react play. At the next level, he needs to take that shot.
This play has more to it.
He upfakes again, the defender bites, and he attacks baseline. Again, this shows where he makes the simple read. NBA level defenses usually cut off baseline passes, but he was able to get this pass to the opposite corner, directly in his line of vision.
Who else is open? Senior forward Eugene Omoruyi, a 37.6% 3-point shooter on solid volume who ties Duarte on the team as a leading scorer.
The full video shows his abilities as a catch and shoot player, his abilities off the ball, intuitive defense to force turnovers, and his ability to attack.
One of my favorite plays in this game is this particular off-ball move at the 5:00 mark. The ball gets thrown to #22 Kepnang in the paint. He drew a lot of defensive attention. Duarte catches his defender looking, uses Will Richardson as a backscreen, and dives straight to the hoop.
Ulis got caught sleeping but Duarte had a wide open runway to the hoop.
Other advanced numbers via Sports Reference:
8.6% Total Rebound Percentage
15.9% Assist Rate
3.4% Steal Rate
2.9% Block Rate
14.8% Turnover Rate
23.9% Usage Rate
Notes: Great steal and block rates for a wing player. Intuitive ability to get into passing lanes. He’s willing to chase down players for transition blocks as well. His assist rate is better than his turnover rate, but it’s possible he can unlock more assist opportunities by opening up to the left side of the floor and seeing open shooters there as well.
Would like to see with NBA development:
NBA strength is one of the critical elements to immediate production. He will need to add some to get through the rigors of an NBA season, even if his playing time may be inconsistent with the Laker team.
Ultimately, it’s hard to define his opportunities to improve, because they’re defined by the level of expectation of who he can be at the next level. If people want to see him as a pick and roll playmaker at the wing position, there’s opportunities to become better at seeing the full width of the floor, using his body as a shield and putting defenders in jail, and being a stronger passer off the dribble with either hand. However, if he’s considered a 3-and-D player at the next level, his ability to attack closeouts and side-step into open shots are already part of his skillset. He should excel well in that particular role.
Where Does He Fit?
We all know the Lakers need shooters. Apparently, shooters take an automatic drop in 3-point shooting percentage as soon as they put on the purple and gold uniform. It’s important that players know how to play defense in order stay on the floor, and more importantly, draw defensive attention to create space for LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That aspect is more important than hitting the open 3-point shot.
Chris Duarte can do all of those things.
He may need to quicken his release a bit and get more comfortable with NBA level contests, but that’s an expected adjustment for all rookie players. While he is considered a “safe” pick, there is still more ability to unravel out of his ball-handling ability and pick and roll play. Ideally, he could be that 3-level scoring threat that takes advantage of whatever the defense gives him. If he’s able to do that, and hit either corner shooter off the dribble in a pick and roll situation, his outcome as an NBA player would be a lot better than what the media perceive him to be at the next level.
He can absolutely get there if he wants, it’s just a matter of when.