A Couple of Questions From Twitter

Jordan Hawkins, and My Top 10

One of the goals of this Substack is to grow the NBA draft community. I think there’s more to NBA entertainment than just athleticism, but also going more in depth about each player’s skill set and progression, and watching them grow in the league.

This aspect made me more of a long time fan.

Photo by Finn Hackshaw on Unsplash

That being said, if there are any questions that are NBA draft related, my Substack chat or Twitter is my full-time AMA, and I’m grateful for the draft enthusiasts that have asked questions and commented on both!

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The first inquiry asks what my thoughts are on Jordan Hawkins. As of right now, Jordan Hawkins is ranked #24 on my big board. His current rank is not an indictment of his skill or talent, it’s an indication of how large of the tier of talent is around pick #17 through roughly pick #32 or so. That’s a large tier of guys ranked generally the same, and the difference of pick position is entirely based on draft values, including skill set, projection, etc.

One reason why I have him ranked lower is because, the strength of the draft is based at the wing position. There’s a chance of bigger, more talented wing players landing at the #17 pick, and in assumption that my thoughts on certain players have been accurate and achievable, one guys ends up a pick-and-roll initiator at wing, or a high end 2-way physical wing player at that 17th spot.

Jordan Hawkins is a more technically refined player, especially in terms of perimeter shooting and defense. I just think that at 6’4.25”, 6’6.75” wingspan, 8’5.5” standing reach, at 186lbs., he’s basically towards the higher end of average of point guard size.

So, the important part is, is he a more physical player? Does he rebound or box out? Does he provide rim pressure? How is he as a point of attack defender? Does he lose his legs when being “stretched out” defensively?

Frankly, his physicality shows defensively at point of attack. That’s how talented he is, and that’s how strong the draft is at this tier.

As for motion shooting, I’m a bit more reluctant to bank on it. I think there’s an element of “shooting by usage,” where technically, all NBA players can shoot, but not all of them can shoot well on lower usage. This is part of why we see guys making a billion shots in empty gyms, but not doing as well at the NBA level. They get repeated shots. Do I imagine him getting 23% to 25% USG next level? I don’t necessarily, even if I think his shooting mechanics are technically perfect. Laker fans have watched Austin Reaves grow as a player, and he’s just about 16% USG. Throughout Reaves’s NCAA career, we know he’s adjusted from ultra-low usage to just above what Hawkins has done at UConn.

His ability to shoot is excellent at the NCAA level, and can still become better at the NBA level, but ever notice how modern motion shooters can take shots off balance with upright postures and still make shots? Do you think Klay and Curry are always 100% on balance flying off of screens? They’re not. NBA defenses have motion shooters leaning. Duncan Robinson, I think, is the most example of this, where despite wing-level size, at his best, he’s leaning one way or the other, and still making shots. Certain NBA bigs in general, aren’t even great at setting screens to set up these shots.

This alone is the big difference between regular season movement shooting vs. playoff movement shooting. Shooting percentages tend to vary more during playoff time, especially for perimeter shooters, and I do think the higher level of defensive contests leading to more off-balance movement shooting is a big part of it.

This is one of the key pieces of my draft philosophy. When the best offensive weapon is taken away, what can the player do to compensate? Cissoko is more likely to be a more effective multi-positional defender that is also a rim-threat. Djurisic, is a playmaker that already takes shots with high difficulty. Bufkin as more of a rim pressure threat, or even Podziemski who is at least capable of chasing rebounds down and seems already adjusted to NBA defenses in terms of getting his shots considering how quick the release is and not being as reliant on his vertical to get the lift required for his shot.

Now, my draft philosophy also leans toward more refined skill. Hawkins has that more so than the above listed players with perimeter shooting, but there’s something to be said of guys who are more physical and may do a better job of optimizing their size. That’s where the difference is for me.

What’s more difficult to teach? Shooting? Or physicality?

You can teach a small guard to become a high end catch-and-shoot player. There’s been multiple instances of this. It’s A LOT more difficult to teach a guard more dynamic ball-handling, athletic traits, and using those traits to become a rim threat and welcome physicality on drives.

Where are Strus, Martin, and Vincent getting their shots in the playoffs?

More than half of them are behind the arc in the playoffs. I think the Miami Heat have a tremendous development program. Two of those three players were undrafted, and Caleb Martin was a 2nd rounder. If this is the low-end of an archetype for Jordan Hawkins, do you want to use a 1st round pick? It depends on the team. I just think the Lakers would look elsewhere. Other teams, need that refined skillset.

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My Top 10

Here’s my list, which some explanation:

1. Wembanyama - The greatest risk is health. The second risk is adding strength and that leading to potential injury. The third risk is him just being a more physical player. He’s the second best pre-NBA prospect I’ve ever seen to LeBron James, only because LeBron was more of an offensive engine and arguably the greatest, if not, absolutely top tier athlete with NBA size entering the NBA. No health risk, no strength risk, just needed to adapt to playing NBA defense. LBJ had court vision that looked inherent, not taught.

2. Scoot - He’s arguably one of the most physical guards on both ends of the floor, and has already faced a high level of individual player competition. Self motivated. He’ll lead a team.

3. Amen Thompson - I mean this in the best possible way. I think he’s further ahead developmentally and has certain athletic advantages in terms of flexibility, with a game that resembles Russell Westbrook. Westbrook with just a great pull-up midrange jumper in his prime got a very young OKC team to the 2nd round of the playoffs. You could do worse with a projectable 10-time All Star projection.

4. Ausar Thompson - Lots has been said about his half court finishing and perimeter shooting. He was already seeing a shooting coach towards the end of the season. Despite a more ball-dominant Amen Thompson on his team, he was able to make reads with the basketball and link or create shots for teammates. Great wing size, incredible defender. He’s a ball-handler and passer by age that I didn’t expect out of Jaden McDaniels. I do expect that level of defense out of him.

5. Jarace Walker - If there was one guy in the lottery that I wanted LAL to pick that isn’t an obvious top 3 player, it’s Walker. Two-way, physical, disciplined defense, makes reads, NBA frame and footwork right now. It’s like watching Naz Reid be capable of high end defense, but better upside as a slasher and mid-range isolation shot creation as the trade off for outright 3-point range, and I think he’s got a solid foundation from there too.

6. Taylor Hendricks - To me, this is the risk pick, but at a certain point I need to believe in the results of his shooting even if I see the slight hip twists, or believe he can be an improved slasher. The physicality part is already there defensively, perimeter and in the the paint.

7. Brandon Miller - Why so low? Ever since I started watching him, I saw the archetype of Walt Williams (now there’s a throwback). Projected point forward, 3-point range, good athlete, not really a rim threat at the NBA level. Now, I haven’t watched Miller’s high school play and was informed he was more of a mid-range player then, but I just think so highly of NBA level playmaking, that I’m not sure Miller’s game gets there as a primary. But this would make him such an incredible secondary playmaker, that I think this is where his role is best optimized. No one has compared his to Jaylen Brown’s role, and he’s ahead of the curve there by age. But this, tied to the defensive abilities of Hendricks, Walker, and the Thompson twins, is just at a different level.

8. Cason Wallace - The two-way guard with three level ability, and his athleticism is based on his strong hands, strong defensive base, and reflexes, not so much in terms of initial quickness, explosiveness, and vertical. He also fights through screens well. He would be the second guy I wished for LAL in the lottery.

9. Cam Whitmore - Much has been said about his Draft Pro Day and his abilities. Personally, I wish I saw more during the regular season in terms of defensive timing, ball-handling, and a certain level of playmaking for a player with experience playing the guard position. He’s the most likely to prove me wrong, and I’m okay with that, but what I’ve seen so far doesn’t line up with my draft philosophy as much compared to other players, especially in terms of making reads.

10. Gradey Dick - Two way player who is a bit light in the wallet, but a guy whose shooting I don’t anticipate issues with because he has wing-length and a quick shot release. He’ll likely be attacked defensively, just like all rookies, for being a bit light in the wallet, but is still playable because of his off-ball defensive abilities. I wish he was more physical, and not that they’re the same player, but the height/length difference alone is enough for me to warrant him Top 10 and at least 14 spots from Jordan Hawkins in this draft.

Honorable mention: Anthony Black. He makes reads at both ends of the floor. I don’t believe his free throw rate is so easily translatable because it’s mostly based on a change of speed on a help defender out of pick and roll. I haven’t seen great results from his perimeter shooting all year long. But, he’s every bit the 2-way athlete, physical, basketball literate guard that I’m looking for. I would have loved to see more in terms of being a perimeter gravity threat, or more dynamic ball-handling.

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Photo by Ajeet Mestry on Unsplash

I haven’t really changed my Top 10 that much in roughly two months. I’m fairly confident in these general assessments and hope that my current draft philosophy has made sense, and lined up these players accordingly.

But, it’s the draft. Nothing works like its supposed to.