A 2026 Draft Wrap Up

Things Don't Turn Out How You Always Expect

The Draft gets Crazier Every Year

We’re a few weeks removed from the 2026 NBA Draft. It figures that the players I talked about most in Joshua Jefferson, Henri Veesaar, Zuby Ejiofor, and Tarris Reed Jr. at the Lakers pick ended up not being the Lakers pick after all. Instead, it was a player that I considered lottery ranked falling down to a pick just before the Lakers spot, and the Lakers trading up to acquire him.

The draft pick ended up being Cameron Carr going to the Lakers.

Personally, I never thought he’d fall that far. On my final board, which admittedly I tiered in a different way, he was ranked #16 overall in this unusually deep draft

1. Darryn Peterson

2. Cam Boozer

3. AJ Dybantsa

4. Caleb Wilson

5. Keaton Wagler

6. Kingston Flemings

7. LaBaron Philon

8. Ebuka Okorie

9. Darius Acuff

10. Morez Johnson Jr

11. Mikel Brown Jr. because health reasons

12. Brayden Burries

13. Yaxel Lendebourg

14. Bennett Stirtz

15. Jayden Quaintance, because if healthy he’s projected to have Top 5 kind of impact.

16. Cam Carr

17. Hannes Steinbach

18. Dailyn Swain

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So why was Cam Carr ranked over Steinbach and Dailyn Swain?

As much as I like Steinbach’s game, I did feel he was caught between two positions, but not in a good way. If he was 20lbs. heavier and kept his mobility, he’d jump several spots up for me in this draft. I think both he and Cam Boozer have the best hands with the best catch ability combined with soft touch in this draft class. Unfortunately, Washington hasn’t shown to be a school that emphasizes defense, and Steinbach isn’t that kind of defensive paint presence, but rather, he’s more of the activity and higher motor type of defender. He doesn’t come off as the guy that stonewalls guys at the rim. While he is capable of blocking shots, he goes for position first and really getting the rebound. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up as one of the Top 10 rebounders at the NBA level in full assumption that he gains strength, gets the playing time, and stays out of foul trouble.

Dailyn Swain is the type of prospect that matched my prior draft philosophy and have wavered on more in recent years. He’s an archetype that resembles Jaylon Tyson from the 2024 draft. I used to be absolutely die-hard about dribble, pass, shoot players as foundational skills, that the floor level of these archetypes is usually a rotation player, even if they don’t defend. Well, it turns out Tyson ended up improving his defense in short time, and would have been a rotation player in the playoffs for the Lakers.

So, why down on Swain? One of the things as an outside of the draft is the lack of access to information. We don’t know these players as people. We make assumptions based on two minute pre-draft interviews. We don’t know their internal motivations. We just know the bottom line is, each player wants to make it into the league and each player wants to stick in the league. What we don’t know is how flexible they will be in terms of the path they choose to accomplish those goals.

Swain was a combo forward out of Xavier with a clear role of being a defensive playmaker. He switched schools to the University of Texas and jumped to the #1 option on his team as a jumbo initiator. He showed far more advanced ball-handling compared to what he had shown in prior years, signs of a pull-up 3-point shot behind the arc, while being a capable passer and playmaker at the NCAA level. The Lakers needed more of the player from Xavier than the one from Texas. I felt his dribble combinations were somehow predictable, even if he repeatedly beat defenders to the rim. Even in spot up 3-point situations, he opted to dribble the basketball first to gain rhythm into his shot.

Admittedly my draft philosophy has amended a lot towards awareness and feel. As it turns out, there are connective players and ball dominant players that read the floor prior to getting the basketball. Their bodies and nervous system aren’t directly linked to the rhythm of the basketball dribble or getting touches. They’re just engaged as players as soon as they hit the floor.

I didn’t think Swain was that guy. I wasn’t clear if he saw the advantages prior to the catch. I think he attacked defenses through his specific pathway, rather than the infinite pathways of players with natural basketball feel.

You know who else has this issue?

Dalton Knecht.

I have higher expectations for Swain than DK, since he at least had a season of being a defensive oriented off-ball player and succeeded in that role. The bar for being a #1 or #2 option playmaker at the NBA level is so high for a playoff level team, that inherent basketball feel is a necessity.

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This, leads me to Cam Carr.

Admittedly, I’ve done more research on Carr lately than I did during the draft cycle. I kept an eye out on him and just felt he was a lottery player that would be taken more than ten spots over the Lakers pick. Several things stood out to me.

1. He ended up being the #1 option on Baylor.

2. He leapt skill-wise with a dramatic change in playing time.

3. He was a short guard with a growth spurt.

One of the things I’ve come across in this draft cycle is trying to link usage as a direct correlation to NBA effectiveness. Some people come to the conclusion that high usage NCAA players can handle the offensive responsibility of a college team, so it’s easier for them to scale down to a limited role.

I disagree.

Even fewer people think usage should more or less match the collegiate levels because that’s what the player is comfortable with.

I agree with that on some level.

The conclusion I came to this year is the level of productivity by usage level. If a player has, let’s say, a 2% block rate, a 2% steal rate, a 12% assist rate, and a 12% rebound rate on a usage of 16% on roughly 55% true shooting, I think that’s good. The player is telling me, with limited touches, the player is finding multiple ways to be engaged on both ends of the floor and makes positive plays. If the usage ramps up, it’s not fair that the advantage statistical rates move up linearly. There’s going to be a plateau. The high usage players tell you where the plateau is. The middling to lower usage players tell you, there’s possibly more positive play to unravel.

Cam Carr had such a change in playing time throughout his collegiate career, that the usage rates seemed erroneous. Imagine, jumping from 4, to 10.5, then to over 33 minutes per game. His usage rate was in the mid-20s, even though he’s not a primary playmaking archetype. I think he was forced into that situation as a shot creator and found ways to excel. His shooting ability surpasses my arbitrary benchmarks that I’ve seen leading to career NBA success.

Close 2s: 68%, Benchmark: 60%

Far 2s: 47.5%, Benchmark: 37%

Overall 2-point: 58%, Benchmark 55%

3-point: 37.5%, Benchmark: 35%

FT%: 80.5%, Benchmark: 77%

Even more impressively, about half his shots for his collegiate career were behind the arc, while still getting a .380 free throw rate and averaging 2-3 midrange shots per game.

Statistics aside, he flows within the halfcourt. He constantly makes himself available to the basketball, constantly seeking open passing lanes. He’s comfortable shooting at all angles behind the arc, as well as the hypothetical 4-point line. He doesn’t stand in the corner. He’s looking for teammates to set screens for him. He’s clearly a wing-sized player that makes himself available to the basketball, creates an NBA level shot with an NBA level release, and has NBA accuracy doing so.

His block rate is 4%, which I think is a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing, in that, he has such great reach and athletic tools, that when he contests 3-point shots, he’s very capable of blocking the shot. It’s a curse in that, he’s so reliant on the physical tools to contest the shot, that if you asked him to defend without contesting, sometimes the off-ball awareness wanes, and you can see why he’s caught in bad positions to recover. It’s easy to see that defenders will attack his chest, and while I think he absorbs contact well for a player that’s 6’4.5” w/o shoes and 185lbs., eventually there’s going to be some give.

An underrated advantage of Cam Carr going to Baylor is being forced to be a playmaker. I’m not going to say he sees the full width of the court when he’s attacking the basket. I will say that he looks at his one primary passing target and has the basketball feel to pass away from the defender and lead the roll man to the open area.

Of course, Cam Carr is off the screen in the highlight, but if you check the 0:40 mark, you can see how he leads Thiero on the pass.

Laker Performances@LALPerformance

Adou Thiero vs Heat 13PTS- 3REB-2AST-3STL-3/9FG

10:52 PM · Jul 5, 2026 · 105K Views

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22 Replies · 129 Reposts · 1.75K Likes

S/O to LALPerformance on Twitter, a great follow for fellow Laker fans.

All of this is to say, Cam Carr has basketball feel on the offensive end. It has shown through two games in the California Classic. Time and time again, he makes himself available to the ball, gets a good shot with the confines of the offense, and forces few bad shots. Teammates have gone to him as an end of clock player, even when creating in isolation isn’t what he does best.

He already showed signs of this from the NBA Pre-Draft Combine where he dropped 30 points on 6 of 12 behind the arc. Dybantsa, Boozer, Peterson, and Wilson may not have played, but he did play against his peers within his expected draft range and stood out.

There will be a few challenges ahead for Carr. Everyone is going to default to adding strength, and rightfully so. Some are going to point out just being more precise on defensive rotations and not being out of position on closeouts, and rightfully so. But, I’m just hoping that he stays the engaged off-ball player that he’s been since the California Classic started. Let him do what he does best. He may not get the same touches he’s getting now. He may not get the same plays being called. Early on, he might be a guy that sits in the corner and cuts baseline when defenses fall asleep. Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic are going to do the all of the playmaking. All Carr has to do is finish those plays.

Thankfully, he’s shown all the signs that he can.