2024 NBA Draft
The Lakers have #17 until the Pelicans take it.
I’m caffeinated. This is going to be a rant.
This year’s draft class is projected to be not as strong at the top. There is no Luka. There is no Wembanyama.
The good news is, the level of Tier 3 players looks wide. There’s a large amount of variation of selections between pick #3 to #18 or so, and they all look easily justifiable.
Link: 2024 Draft Board In Continuous Progress
I made a quick list of players I like/watching:
Ron Holland
Nikola Topic
Isaiah Collier
Isaiah Crawford
Donovan Clingan
Dalton Knecht
Pacome Dadiet
Devin Carter
Nikola Djurisic
Kel’el Ware
DaRon Holmes
Kevin McCullar Jr.
Zach Edey
Ryan Dunn
Hunter Sallis
Mark Sears
Alex Karaban
KJ Simpson
Cam Christie
Adem Bona
That’s a list that covers the top of the draft to the possibly undrafted. Keep in mind, that some of these players may choose to go back to school if they do not like their draft position.
What’s different about this draft?
I’m in the discovery process with this year’s draft. This process started around conference tournament time. There aren’t really Tier 1 prospects this time around. There is no obvious Luka Doncic or Victor Wembanyama. There’s a possibility that guys can develop into that kind of player, but I can’t project that kind of reach.
There is no obvious #1 prospect, but if you were to look around Twitter (or X), you’d often find Alexander Sarr and Ron Holland. I personally have Ron Holland as a #1, but have seen him mocked as low as #8, while Sarr is never below #2. Take that for what it’s worth.
Admittedly, this make the idea of Tier 2 or Tier 3 prospects a more difficult think. The idea of Tier 2 is based around the idea of a potential All-Star player for a few years. Tier 3 is a borderline starter (depending on team context) and long time NBA player. Both of those tiers look expanded without a real obvious Tier 1. I might have to redefine both of those tiers as well just to make them more specific.
It also gives the apperance that Tier 2 extends to the end of the lottery, while Tier 3 is mid-1st round to mid-2nd round. That’s the impression that I get. That is also too wide of a spread. After participating in a few community mocks (MavsDraft Community Mock and Lucas Community Draft), there are good prospects for the Lakers to be had, even if a few favorites don’t make it to the Lakers’ second round pick. It also makes it tempting to trade down for the New York Knick picks, trading #17 for #25 and #56.
The Challenge In This Draft
My ethos adheres to the idea of Best Player Available, but in this draft, that comes from two different directions; a ready NBA player vs. a project. Last year, I didn’t think an NBA project was the path in the first round. If the Lakers were to choose a project, I would have definitely argued the pick should have been Cam Whitmore or Leonard Miller, but the Lakers aren’t the type of franchise to take that kind of risk. The last time I felt they took that kind of risk, was back in 2005 with Andrew Bynum.
I think it worked well for what it’s worth. It just took a lot of effort from Bynum and the franchise in terms of development.
Two players that I did like in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski had a lot of games started for a team competing for the playoffs. Sure, TJD was a senior, but Podz was a sophomore before he was drafted, and earned the starts too. There is no direct correlation of NCAA experience being equivalent to NBA readiness. Physicality, ability to make instantaneous reads on both ends of the floor, having at least one NBA skill with requisite NBA size and athletic ability are the qualities that lead to NBA readiness. How people read those qualities varies for each person, and while I felt Brandin could absolutely read the floor, I wasn’t sure that he could make himself enough of an NBA defender to stay on the floor.
Well, it turns out he was able to make those defensive reads and become one of the league leaders in taking charges. I can’t predict that, but I can easily see the foundation of where that skill stemmed from.
Examples of Some Project players?
Pacome Dadiet
Tidjane Salaun
Nikola Djurisic
Kyshawn George
Tyler Smith
Examples of Some NBA-ready players?
Ryan Dunn
Kevin McCullar Jr.
Tristan Da Silva
Dalton Knecht
Devin Carter
This is where I am with players I like, while I’m in the discovery process. Think of it as, “What players do I have a gut feeliing about?” It starts at the #1 pick, and goes to roughly the mid-2nd round. However, while some of them may be listed that low on some mock drafts, I would have all of them as 1st round ranked players. The list may expand as the draft process continues.
Ron Holland
Nikola Topic
Isaiah Collier
Dalton Knecht
Nikola Djurisic
Ryan Dunn
Kevin McCullar Jr
Jamir Watkins
DaRon Holmes
Devin Carter
Isaiah Crawford
Bub Carrington
There’s going to be a lot more research required to figure this draft out. Usually, there aren’t so many players listed in the same relative tier of talent, so it’s going to take some additional refining to parse them out and rank them with an organized process.
The good news is, there are going to be several opportunities for the Lakers to draft a good player in the first round. I really do expect a struggle between a high-end-starter long term, vs immediate impact rotational player help. Otherwise, I’d just say play Ryan Dunn in Vanderbilt’s position or Kevin McCullar Jr at 2/3, even in smaller lineups, and everything would be fine.
Then, I’d kick myself if the Lakers passed up an opportunity to trade up for Ron Holland or Isaiah Collier, assuming either slipped to the late lottery of mid-1st round, like they have been in the community mock drafts I’ve been participating in.
Unfortunately, this season didn’t end we all wanted it to. There were mistakes made along the way. NBA franchises have to win at all of the margins, including health, coaching, draft, free agency, and trades.
The draft is a free shot to upgrade the roster, and all it takes is the correct thought process and doing your homework.
Well, right now, I’m doing my homework.